Reds Insider: On the Milton debate

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

On the Milton debate

Good points by all. Eric Milton hasn't pitched terribly. But he and Rheal Cormier are examples of how contracts affect decisions. I doubt that either one would have made the club out of spring training if they had not been under contract for big bucks.

In the NFL, they would have been released. Baseball's guaranteed contracts take away flexibility from GMs. Wayne Krivsky inherited Milton's. Cormier's was his fault.

I don't think the Reds can afford -- from a publicity standpoint -- to keep running Milton out there if the club remains 0-f0r in his starts.

23 Comments:

at 1:21 PM

Anonymous said...

He has the same amount of wins as Bronson Arroyo. Milton is the 5th starter, he isn't expected to put the team in a strong position to win, as much as he just needs to not put the Reds in a position to lose. If he keeps pitching 5-6 innings of 2-4 run baseball he will do his job. Saarloos has not shown in his career he could be any better. The real big arm in AAA is Bailey and I would prefer him to stay in AAA. The Reds should keep using Milton no reason to realease him. If a couple of pitchers would go down after Milton's release the Reds would be in trouble. It would be similar to releasing Williams last year, when they could have sent him down because he had options. He could have been useful perhaps when Rameriz faltered, and when the Reds had to run Joe Mays out there because Claussen was hurt, or in September when they were desperate for anyone who could throw a baseball.

at 1:28 PM

Bengal43 said...

When does Burton's rehab asignment run out?

at 1:29 PM

Bengal43 said...

When does Burton's rehab asignment run out?

at 1:39 PM

Anonymous said...

We all know Eric Milton is not worth close to 10Mil, but if you take his salary out of the equation (and you half too because you already have to pay it unless you find a sucker to pick up some of it) Milton has not pitched that bad for a FIFTH starter.

His 0-4 record is because he has had NO run support, 4.71 ERA is okay for a 5th. Most teams would like to have a 5th starter with an ERA under 5 (they would not pay him 10 mil but that mistake is already done)

I say keep him for now unless he starts getting into that 5.75 or 6 ERA

at 2:17 PM

Pat said...

I bet you release milton and he'll show up in st. louis, chicago or houston and will come back to haunt us.

A month ago I thought the reds needed to relaese him. Today, I say he's a keeper.

pat
arizona reds fan

at 2:37 PM

John Fay said...

I believe it's 30 days after he started, which was April 17 (I believe). I'm checking to be sure.

at 2:41 PM

John Fay said...

That is correct. Burton started the rehab assignment on April 17. It's 30 days for pitchers. The last day he can play in the minors is May 16.

at 3:08 PM

Chris at Redleg Nation said...

I agree with Anonymous. Milton's not pitched well, exactly, but I'm perfectly fine with his contributions as a #5 - and he's won the same games as Bronson (which shows only that the offense and bullpen have stunk).

I agree with John that Milton's contract has been an issue, but for the opposite reason. If Saarloos had made the same starts that Milton has -- 5.1 IP, 3.25 R, on the average -- we'd be calling him another successful Krivsky pickup. Milton's 2007 performance is being (negatively) colored by his contract and history. It's not his fault that the Reds have scored 11 runs in his 4 starts.

at 3:27 PM

docproc said...

Comparing Milton's 0-4 with Arroyo's 0-2 is silly.

Arroyo's ERA is 2.86; Milton's is 4.71.

Arroyo keeps us in games; Milton pitches us out of them.

Arroyo's a proven winner; Milton's a proven loser.

Arroyo will snap out of it; Milton won't.

And anyone who thinks that 0-4 with a 4.71 ERA is just fine for a #5 pitcher, or that any of the starters down in Louisville couldn't do at least that well, needs to wake up.

at 3:43 PM

Laura said...

Great points about the lack of run support and he and Arroyo having the same wins. I wanted Milton GONE at the beginning of the season, but I think he's pitched well enough to stay at least one more month.

at 4:19 PM

Pat said...

In Milton's four starts, the reds have scored one run while he was still in the game. Milton could easily be 4-0, like Harang if he had the run support that Harang has gotten.

pat

at 4:34 PM

Anonymous said...

"Arroyo's a proven winner; Milton's a proven loser."

Arroyo career 47-46 4.16 ERA
Milton career 87-84 5.00 ERA

That is not a huge difference.

Before you go off docproc I know that Arroyo is a much much better pitcher than Milton that is why he is a #2 and not a #5

Average per start
Innings, Harang 6.35 Milton 5.25
Hits, Harang 6.83 Milton 6.25
Earned Runs, Harang 3 Milton 2.75
Strike outs, Harang 6 Milton 3.25
Walks, Harang 1.5 Milton 1.25
HR given up, Harang .5 Milton .75

This is comparing your #1 to your #5. Only looking at W-L record is not right. Harang is 4-0 but has not been the best pitcher on this team so far. Loshe and Arroyo have been the best and only have ONE win combined.

If you take away his huge pay, Milton is NOT a bad #5

At least so far.

at 4:46 PM

docproc said...

But the difference between Harang and Milton is that Harang keeps us in the game; Milton doesn't. They leave Harang in because they trust him; they yank Milton because they don't (and that strains our bullpen). Yes, Milton (and Arroyo) could use some run support, but I'm convinced that any runs given to Milton he would find a way to give back.

As a very wise blogger noted this morning:

"Milton usually just does bad enough to lose. If the reds score 2, he gives up 3. If the reds score 5, he gives up 6."

Um, Pat--that blogger was YOU. So explain to me again why we want to keep sending out a guy every fifth day who has a strong penchant for losing?

at 5:06 PM

Don said...

The idea of trying to equate Arroyo and Milton as being equal based on the fact neither has "won a game" is laughable.

at 5:46 PM

docproc said...

And please, let's NOT compare CAREER stats for Arroyo and Milton. So I will amend my position:

Arroyo is a proven winner FOR THE REDS (which is why they extended his contract).

Milton is a proven loser FOR THE REDS (which is why they rue the day they gave him that huge contract).

Could we please stop comparing Milton with Arroyo and Harang? That's ludicrous, and it's insulting to the best 1-2 starting combo in the league.

at 5:47 PM

docproc said...

at 6:25 PM

Chris at Redleg Nation said...

And not a soul said that, Don. They (and me) said that basing criticism of Milton on W-L record is stupid - and Arroyo's the perfect example of why that's the case.

Docproc says that someone in L'Ville could do "as well" as Milton. Then why change? Keep Milton on the roster and save that mysterious "equally-good" guy until one of the starters gets hurt. You don't throw away depth, just because you don't like a guy, or becuase he makes too much money.

Milton is fine as a #5 starter. All this stuff about "pitching well enough to win" is just silly. Milton would have to have thrown 4 consecutive shutouts to have any wins. Again, it's not his fault that the team scores ZERO runs when he pitches. I suppose he could spend more time in the cage...

at 7:17 PM

docproc said...

Chris at Redleg Nation:

But Milton didn't come anywhere CLOSE to throwing shutouts in his last few outings. He was down 3-0 in the first inning of his last start. Arroyo, Lohse, and Harang have kept us in the game when the team wasn't hitting; Milton hasn't.

Seriously: Dumatrait and Livingston could do as well as Milton, and we'd be building toward the future. Milton is a vestige of an era we need to leave behind. Let's move on.

at 8:17 PM

Don said...

Assuming some of the guys in AAA are equal to Milton (for the record, I believe they are better), then the rationale for bringing them up is that it saves the bullpen. Milton is averaging barely 5 IP per GS. We all know what happens to Milton as the game grows older. With the bullpen being so suspect, I'd take a Phil Dumatrait throwing an average of 6.3 IP per GS with an ERA of 4.79 over Eric Milton throwing an average of 5 IP per GS with the same ERA. Milton can give you six innings, but it will cost you two more runs per start.

at 8:51 PM

concepcionsf said...

It makes no sense to release Milton. I guarantee if this happened that he would sign somewhere else and contribute. Furthermore, in the upcoming offseason Milton WILL sign elsewhere for a sizeable amount (at least 7-8 mil year) based on the premium on starting left handed pitching and what others made this year (Meche? Suppan?). If we wait and let him leave as a free agent we get draft choices in return or we trade him later in the season when everyone overpays for pitchers (see Cormier last penant race).

at 10:37 PM

Anonymous said...

OK, let me preface this by saying the only person in recent Reds history I hate more than Eric Milton is Bob Boone....

DocProc said: "But the difference between Harang and Milton is that Harang keeps us in the game; Milton doesn't." AND "But Milton didn't come anywhere CLOSE to throwing shutouts in his last few outings. He was down 3-0 in the first inning of his last start."

How were the Reds not in that game? I understand that Milton hurt the bullpen by not lasting deep into the game, but the Reds lost that game 3-1. How were they not in that game?

Second point: It is ridiculous to compare Harang and Arroyo to Milton, but late last year before Milton got hurt he was the second best pitcher in the rotation only slightly below Arroyo. Take out one start and the start where he threw out his elbow (which he only lasted 1/3 of an inning) and he was 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA when the Reds needed him most in August and September. Harang during the same period (also minus one equally bad start) was 2-4 with a 4.31 ERA. Arroyo was 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA and better run support (minus one bad start though not quite as bad as Milton's).

Third point: Milton started the year on the DL, he may get better as he gets stronger.

I am in no way a fan of Milton. In fact, I don't have a lot of confidence in him. But he hasn't been that bad and he could be a decent fifth starter. I guess my point is he's no Jimmy Haynes where you cut him after a month because he's that bad.

The biggest thing for him is he isn't giving innings and I think some of that could be credited to the fact that he started the year on the DL.

at 6:53 AM

Anonymous said...

Can anyone give a little insight as to how Eric Milton hangs onto his dignity day in and day out? He is constantly getting ripped in the press - I can only imagine how he must feel in the clubhouse... Anyone??? thoughts...

at 11:53 AM

Anonymous said...

doc,
You can never have to much depth in the starting rotation. Right now the Reds have 6 pitchers on the 25 man roster, and 3 or 4 more in AAA, and Rameriz possibly if he gets healthy who are capable of starting for the Reds. But why dip into that now. If MIlton continues to not get lit up why pay him to not pitch or to pitch for another team, probably the pitching starved Cardinals, and remeber what the cast away Weaver did for them last year?

Why all the personal anamosity towards Milton. He seems like a good guy? I keep reading that people hate him. You have to give the guy credit, he takes the ball no matter what, even if he isn't feeling his best, and he stands up to the media, and takes responsibility. IT isn't like he blames his teammates, or doesn't take this game seriously. Everything i have read about Milton says he probably hates losing more then we hate to see him lose.

Wouldn't you agree John Fay that Milton is a stand up guy when it comes to his short comings?

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Tuesday, May 1, 2007

On the Milton debate

23 Comments: