Winter Meetings Day II
It seems to me that what the Reds do at the Winter Meetings comes down to this: Do they want a proven starter badly enough to give up Homer Bailey or Jay Bruce?
If they're willing to give up one of those two, they could possibly land one of the big fish out there -- Oakland's Dan Haren, Baltimore's Erik Bedard or Florida's Dontrelle Willis. If the Reds were willing to put Bailey or Bruce in a package, clubs will listen.
It's the classic, present-vs.-future argument. My sense is they would not part with Bruce under almost any circumstance. As for Bailey, if their internal scouting projects him as a No. 1 starter, they'd be silly to trade him. But, if the project him as No. 3 or 4, they might be willing to risk it.
posted by John Fay at 11:05 AM
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Post a Comment*Rotoworld.com is reporting that the Reds have shown interest in Tim Lincecum and Erik Bedard at the Winter meetings.
Not sure if they are referring to your articles, John, but they are not providing the Cincinnati Enquirer as a source.
Bailey in a package for Haren or Bedard? Okay.
Bruce in a package for anyone? Nope.
Is Bruce for Lincecum really that crazy? I think Lincecum is a stud. An ace.
By the way... what's Dunn's status now? Does he have a full no-trade, or just a limited list of teams?
What kind of trade value do you think Dunn or Griffey has right now?
It sounds like a plausible idea that something like this could work, but their is no way they, the REDS, would take a chance like this. Isnt Bedard going to be commanding a hefty salary as well?
So what is your take on that John?
Do we send off Bailey, who is NOT proven, and go for a Haren, Willis, or Bedard... or do we stay with Bailey and pray that he develops into the next Seaver?
Building from within will bring long lasting quality... but only if someone can help develop our younger players.
Projections are projections, of course. Why would Baltimore, for example, trade Bedard unless the deal included someone who was at least projected to be a star? So, I'd think, Bailey or Bruce would certainly be necessary.
Haren I would consider it since he's under contract for the next few years. Plus think how bad the Cardinals would like to have him back.
Bedard would be enticing and the Orioles are pretty inept on the front office side of things.
If I had the choice I would deal Bailey. You got to give up something to get something.
And yes it could come back to haunt uus if they do it.
Woody
that is stupid to give up your two TOP prospects just to get another stater. and what are going to do if we do make a trade like that and whoever comes in ends up hurt or worthless (like milton) then we screwed. i really really really really hope they wouldn't do something like that. we finally have quality prospects coming up in the organization and it would stupid, dumb, idiotic, etc.... come on reds be smarter than that.
If they could get Bedard or Haren, I'd part with Bailey. You'd be trading potential for a pretty sure bet. But it would take Bailey and two or three other players to get either.
It's a huge risk.
The other factor is the Reds' best offer may not get either. Pitching is a precious commodity, so a lot of clubs are making offers to best pitchers available.
I have to think it'd be tough for other teams to top an offer of Bailey/Votto/Stubbs for Bedard, who's the best available pitcher not named Johan Santana.
Bedard's got significantly fewer innings pitched at the same age, costs less and remains under contract through 2009, so you could argue he's more valuable than Santana.
I'm curious on everyone's thoughts on this hypethetical: Bruce and Encarnacion to Baltimore for Bedard and Miguel Tejada.
Jay Bruce should be traded IMMEDIATELY if he would bring back a quality young pitcher like Bedard, Lincecum, Willis, Cain, etc... Pitching wins championships, not 5 tool outfield prospects. We have a surplus of outfielders with Dunn, Griffey, Hamilton, Hopper, Freel, while Keppinger and Votto can fill in when needed. Bruce might become a great outfielder, but you have to give up something of quality to get a top pitcher.
Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, and Encarnacion should all be considered trade parts. Bailey and Cueto have to be considered, but I would rather keep a pitching prospect versus a position player.
Look at the free agent market in any off season. There are always plenty of hitters available but hardly ever is there pitching.
I don't like the idea of Bedard. He has had arm troubles and there have been some reports that his arm will not hold up over the long run.
Haren seems like the second best option because he is under contract but he did seem to slip at the end of last year and Beane will have a heftier price tag for him than Bedard.
I love Willis but he is also not a good option. Since his Cy Young he has fallen apart and he is a fly ball pitcher in a huge park coming here could be a disaster.
The best option is Lincecum. Supposedly the Giants like Encarnacion, so hopefully we could send Edwin, one of our young OF's (preferably Hamilton or Stubbs), and two pitching prospects not named Bailey or Cueto.
This would keep a good young core of Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, and Votto and give us a young pitcher that has a shot of being a number 1 who is under our control for a long time.
Bailey or Bruce for D Train. No Way. Willis is on the decline. Bailey or Bruce for Lincecum, no way. Lincecum's slight build and high heat is a recipe for an arm injury experts say. Bailey or Bruce for Bedard or Haren, yes!
I don't like the idea of Bedard. He has had arm troubles and there have been some reports that his arm will not hold up over the long run.
Haren seems like the second best option because he is under contract but he did seem to slip at the end of last year and Beane will have a heftier price tag for him than Bedard.
I love Willis but he is also not a good option. Since his Cy Young he has fallen apart and he is a fly ball pitcher in a huge park coming here could be a disaster.
The best option is Lincecum. Supposedly the Giants like Encarnacion, so hopefully we could send Edwin, one of our young OF's (preferably Hamilton or Stubbs), and two pitching prospects not named Bailey or Cueto.
This would keep a good young core of Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, and Votto and give us a young pitcher that has a shot of being a number 1 who is under our control for a long time.
Clag, not in a million years would the Orioles make that deal. Maybe two million years.
If you trade Bailey in a deal for another stater, you are still 1 starter short, unless you are 110% convinced that Cueto will be in your rotation.
I would sooner trade Cueto than Bailey, partly because Cueto is another couple years away. Hypothetically, the Orioles are not likely to make a move in the AL East anytime soon----let's face it, the Red Sox and Yankees have the momentum, the Blue Jays have the players and the Rays have evrything but health and direction. In short, the Orioles are in no hurry to win. So they might be willing to take Cueto and wait another year.
But still, is Bedard worth it? Probably not. And as for the fantasy league idea of the Orioles throwing Tejada into any deal----yea right, Tejada a throw in anywhere. We're not dealing in baseball CARDS here
I think Krivsky should aggressively shop Encarnacion around and not listen to any offers at all for Bruce or Bailey. Or tell people if they want either of those two, they'll have to take Stanton, Majewski and possibly Coffey along as well. If they don't want Coffey, offer them Dick Pole instead. That should lower the demand for those two.
But if teams want top prospects, Cueto, Stubbs and Thompson could always be moved
As for Dontrelle Willis, he definitely would not work out. First of all, yes he is a fly ball pitcher. He would suffer at home and the fans would suffer watching him.
Second, he's flaky. At least it's in the funny way, but flaky all the same. I think the fans would hate that after a while, too.
Third, have you seen the way he pitches? Arms and legs go flying all over the place. I forsee a torn rotator cuff in his future. At least that would be preferable to an elbow blow-out. But those mechanics are not easily changed. Best to avoid that mess all together
Dude the Reds need one of these top players I would trade Encarnacion and maybe freel or someone for I know you havent heard a rumor but Ive heard ben Sheets maybe dealt because the brewers are looking for young talent.
Hey "Dude" the Brewers would not even think of trading Ben Sheets to another NL Central team I think if the Reds can land Erik Bedard or a top tier picther along with Prior ... Watch Out.
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