Reds Insider: Blanton update

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Blanton update

The Reds and A's definitely have talked. But the A's are asking a lot for Joe Blanton -- probably Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, plus Joey Votto and a third player. I thought the A's would want Bailey badly based on his start in Oakland -- 7 innings, two hits, one run in a 4-2 win -- but then I remembered Billy Beane doesn't watch games.

The deal could happen if the A's back off the price a bit.

85 Comments:

at 9:00 PM

Anonymous said...

Do the Reds have anyone that can replace Votto in the next year or so?? If Votto is going to be a 25hr 90 RBI guy and we have to give up Bailey as well, I'd say its a tough deal to swallow. What do scouts say about Blanton's stuff?? Is he a ground ball pitcher??

at 9:19 PM

Anonymous said...

John good to have you back on-line freshening the blog. I have mixed feelings aobut letting go of a young pitcher for Blanton. They have so much promise, but then again they might turn out to be the next Dumatrait. The one thing I see in Baily is an Achilles heel in his slow delivery. Base runners seemed to be able to go at will on him.

Bill in VB

at 9:32 PM

Anonymous said...

Why on earth would we give up Bailey - in whom the team has invested so much and now might actually start to see some return, to get someone that went 14-10 last year? Wasn't the talk a year or so ago that Bailey could be the next 20 games winner for the Reds? I would put any position player on the block - minor league or otherwise. But I wouldn't put up one of our young up-and-coming arms for a 14-10 guy.

at 9:53 PM

Anonymous said...

Wow, that would be horrible, thats almost the asking price for bedard and blanton is nowhere near his level. I like the idea of going for blanton, but noone would offer that much. If we could do it without giving up bruce, bailey, votto...maybe it would be worth it...like maloney, stubbs, and 1-2 lower prospects.

at 9:57 PM

Kyle said...

It is worth noting that if Joey Votto leaves in a trade that the Reds pick 7th in the upcoming draft. There are three premium first baseman worthy of a top ten pick. Two of them, Yonder Alonso and Justin Smoak are from the college ranks and are polished enough to get to the majors with a full year in the minors.

If Votto goes to Oakland in a trade, I would like to see Jeff Keppinger take over his atbats at first base. Better yet, slide Edwin Encarnacion to first and play Keppinger at third.

at 10:03 PM

Anonymous said...

Hey John,

Do you have any insight why teams are raking us over the coals in these proposed trades? I mean, Bailey or Cueto AND Votto. Is Billy Beane on drugs??? Did any of the Diamondbacks prospects for Dan Haren even come close to what the A's wanted from the Reds? NOT. Does the Mariners prospects to the Orioles for Bedard come close? NOT. I mean, other teams will settle for a top 5 prospect and a bunch of lower prospects. But when they talk to the Reds they want 2 or 3 of our top 10 prospects. It sounds more and more like to collusion to me.

John C.
Las Vegas

at 10:12 PM

Anonymous said...

To be realistic based on the other Oakland moves this offseason, I would say that a fair trade would include something like (based on the prospect list posted earlier):
1. One of #2-#4 Bailey, Votto, or Cueto
2. One of #5 - #7 Stubbs, Mesoraco, or Frazier
3 & 4. 2 of #8 - #15 Francisco, Roenicke, Maloney, Lotzkar, Burton, Valaika, Soto, and Viola

Thoughts?
Brian in KY

at 10:17 PM

Grizzlyfox said...

If this team struggles next year, why would a guy like Dunn want to re-up? Why would Phillips be any more compelled to take a longer deal? What about EE? It's always easier to keep your young players when you're doing good. That's probly one reason why the Indians and Rockies are making progress in that area. There is a lot of young talent in this system. I still don't know why they would ask for Votto, with Barton ready to take over. I agree on Bailey, and then maybe Stubbs/Fransisco, or if it takes it both of them. This is one of those deals where you trade a guy that might be for a guy that could be real good in the NL, and then throw in offensive players, which is obviously more of a position of strength for this team.

at 10:24 PM

Anonymous said...

Blanton went 14-10 in a pitcher's park. Certainly Homer is capable of 14-10 this year if healthy... and we need Votto's bat. Hamilton is gone and Grif's last year.

NO DEAL.

at 10:25 PM

Anonymous said...

You know the last time Jocketty was involved in a trade with Beane, there weren't enough sheep in New Zealand to provide for the fleecing that happened.

The A's sent Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Danny Haren, Daric Barton and Kiko Calero.

Mulder had a decent 2005, but has been injured the previous two seasons. Haren was flipped this offseason for 6 prospects, 4 of which made BA's top ten list for A's prospects. Barton is their 5th best prospect. Which means Beane was able to trade 2005 Mulder, for half of his top ten 2008 prospects. And all the Cardinals got was Mulder for one good season. Oh and by the way, throw-in Kiko Calero even gave the A's 2 out of 3 good seasons of relief.

In fairness, it really was one of only a few times Jocketty didn't get the better end of a trade.

Anyway, one hopes that Jocketty will pull Wayne aside and say "you know there was this one time when I traded with Beane..."

at 10:35 PM

cincikid said...

That is alot for a #3 or #2 pitcher at best. We have seen Bailey. Do you really think he could give 200+ inning in a season? I think we have to make a push now. This division is up for the taking. We only had a small sample of Votto. Will his defense hold up enough to carry him on the line up once he is in a slump with the bat? I don't think that a deal will get done. Beane is probably just fishing now that Santana and Bedard are off the table.

at 10:44 PM

Anonymous said...

It appears that Blanton re-upped for 2008 at the Major League minimum ($380K). I'm not sure what Reds management sees -- either in Blanton, or not in Bailey -- that would make the Reds consider trading one or more of their top minor league pitchers, a top prospect (Votto), *and* another player for Blanton.

Caveat emptor. Give Bailey a full season and let's see what he can do.

at 11:03 PM

Anonymous said...

If Kriviski makes this trade it shows that he feels his job is in jeopardy and he needs to win now. If the Reds gave up Bailey or Cueto they would be giving up more talented pitchers then they would be recieving, not to mention a couple high impact bats. Dumb trade in my opinion if happens, but i dont get paid to make these decision so i'm just going to hope the front office makes the right choice.

at 11:08 PM

Cheviot Sports Authority said...

That price is way too high. Good thing Jocketty is here to keep the k-man from giving away the store. I would give them Votto and another good prospect not so far along. If they traded Votto, then Dunn should be moved to first base (not asked to go to first base). That would leave 2 outfield spots for Hopper and Bruce. I don't care who says differently, Dunn's defense can be better absorbed at first base than in left field. He may even improve a bit there and its not near as far to have to run to on those hot days.

at 11:15 PM

Ashland ATeam said...

If we gave up Votto, Bailey and a third, lower prospect, that seems fine to me. Here's why:

- Do the Reds need Votto? I mean really NEED him? With Hatteburg/Keppinger at 1st, does Votto's production really outweigh theirs? Furthermore, look at this year's free agent market - good first basemen are a dime a dozen (example: Sean Casey signing for less than $1 million)

- Now on to Bailey - I don't know why the Reds would want to include him... but here's what I do know: the Reds have him under control for at least five seasons. Assuming the normal career arc of a phenom that makes it, he should arrive big time next season... giving us 4 solid years before he leaves for the Yankees (and this is a best case scenario). That's a big 'what-if' though.

- In Blanton, we get a proven 14 game winner from the AL (which, in case you haven't heard, is a little tougher than the NL, pitcher's park or no pitcher's park). And we have him under our control for at least three seasons.

So, the worst case trade is this:

A's Get:
Votto (who the Reds don't need)
Bailey (who we know nothing about, but whose ceiling is four solid years)

Reds get:
Blanton (for three years, automatic 200 innings, 13-15 wins).

Verdict: I make the deal, assuming the third prospect isn't someone huge.

at 11:18 PM

Chris at Redleg Nation said...

No thanks.

at 11:43 PM

Anonymous said...

I agree with John C. in Vegas and Brian in KY. I think giving up Votto is a lot, and Bailey or Cueto on top of that is just too much. I really don't want to see either of those 2 pitchers leave, even for a quality guy like Blanton, when they are the home grown arms we have been waiting for. Plus they are guys penciled in, at least for competition, this year, with both of them in the majors full time next year. I could even stand trading Votto and Volquez, because I am just not as attached to him. Is he not in the same position because he is not a "prospect" anymore?

at 11:48 PM

Anonymous said...

how about we dive into the bedard bidding with a package like this? I know they want an OF in baltimore but i'm sure they can setting for two widely regarded top 50 prospects and another one or two of our top 15-20 prospects.
jones > votto (mainly b/c he is the OF Bal wants)
sherrill < i'm sure we can find someone to fill this spot. a lefty reliever
tillman < bailey/cueto this goes in the reds favor bigtime.
butler< I'm sure we can add dorn/stubbs to give them the OF they want and take car of this deal.

at 11:53 PM

Anonymous said...

John please get on the phone with someone from the Reds and tell them HECK NO. This trade rumor will keep me up at night because Blanton is just not very good and Bailey Cueto and Votto are all good enough to be traded straight up for him. Bailey is a top of the rotation type. Cueto has awesome potential as a starter but he has also been called a possible dominant closer. Votto will hit 25 hr THIS YEAR. Why move any of them. I would hesitate on Stubbs and another decent prospect. We can win with the youth we have now. Realize this. Look at the Rockies from last season. If we get some hot pitching we are in a weak division. Lets just relax and hope we can get some good production from EV HB MM or JC and we already know we have a cy young type ace.

at 11:56 PM

Anonymous said...

BEDARD....BEDARD

USE THE PROSPECTS FOR BEDARD.

WAY MORE UPSIDE THAN BLANTON.

VOTTO, BAILEY AND STUBBS FOR BEDARD.

JOE BLANTON IS HIGHLY OVERRATED...

at 1:04 AM

Anonymous said...

Blanton is effective. He should be at least even in the new park given the league adjustment and is well past his injury apex with locked in cost certainty (which is why he'll cost a bit more than you'd judge on talent alone).

Votto looks to me to be another in the Lyle Overbay, Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman line of very good hitters that don't seem likely to develop the kind of power you want at first--but the A's already have that in Daric Barton.

Homer Bailey has nasty stuff, but I feel like he's got the ten cent head to go with the million dollar arm because he's just not a good pitcher.

Cueto and the criminally under-utilized Keppenger (who'd find the line-up card a lot with the DL days that team puts up)?

There must be an arm in the minors that projects to a low ceiling reliever?

You just don't want to be the Angels--who laughed off superstars for Dallas McPherson, Ervin Santana, Brandon Wood and the like for so long they wasted their value.

The success percentage for even the most elite of prospects isn't great--look how long it took Phillips before he finally found it.

at 1:17 AM

Anonymous said...

I think this hysteria is hilarious! A lot of rumor without any specific information from the reporters. Is there a reputable source? If so, why don't you mention it? As with the Bedard fiasco, I'm beginning to think that no one has a clue, but rather is playing fantasy GM. Unfortunately for us readers, the faux-GMs creating this hysteria are a little cooky in their transactions. It would be more convincing if the trade made a little more sense. Blanton is ok, but not in our ballpark and definetely not worth two top 50 prospects! Maybe one of our top 50 not named Bruce or Bailey and a few extras laying around at 2A and below...well below.
Did anyone pay attention to NY and Boston this offseason when they balked at trading their lesser prospects, for the top pitcher in the land no-less! Give our prospects credit for being a part of the next wave of talent in the bigs, and please stop the nonsense all you GMs out there. Lets get on with discussing our depth and how to best utilize it, not destroy it.

at 1:44 AM

Anonymous said...

Good to see Cincy has their heads straight. Blanton has been linked to my Twinkies as well, and frankly, the idea triggers the vomit at the back of my throat. Lets remember who is being discussed here. Joe Blanton. The perennial definition of average. Career .411 ERA. Okay, but does it excite you? Not me, and if I'm not excited, why give up prospects.

Bailey can equal Blanton production easily. I wouldn't give him up straight up. Just like I wouldn't trade ANYONE in the MN farm system for Joe Blanton.

at 3:15 AM

Anonymous said...

Brian in KY:
I like your trade outline, but would list Votto as the last trade option in the first group and eliminating Burton.

at 4:25 AM

Anonymous said...

"Good thing Jocketty is here to keep the k-man from giving away the store."

Do you have any idea what you are talking about? If anyone is going to throw away prospects it would be Jocketty, not Wayne.

at 6:11 AM

Anonymous said...

What kind of absolute moron would think a team would evaluate a pitcher based primarily on his performance in one single game against unfamiliar hitters, and then use that suggestion as a springboard for (what was probably intended to somehow be a humourous) personal attack against a man with astronomically greater baseball knowledge?

That being said, the Reds would be crazy to hire Dusty Baker, I mean make a trade like this. Blanton's good, and pretty cheap too, and Votto is a surplus guy right now who Dusty won't use properly anyhow, but Cueto and Bailey are likely to be as good or better than Blanton within three years, probably sooner.

Blanton would be a nice fit, but only for Votto and something other than Cueto or Bailey.

Go Reds!

at 6:43 AM

Unknown said...

Blanton for Encarnacion or Freel & any two of the 5-15 propects. Anything more than that is ridiculous. Trading your young arms from a small market club with limited financial ability to compete just doesn't make sense. Blanton becomes at best the 3rd best starter on the team day 1. You already have that in Homer Bailey at a lower price. After turning down the ridiculous trade proposals from Baltimore why would the Reds make this proposed trade with the players you speculated on? Oakland needs to lower their demands or this will be a joke if Krivsky makes the trade.

Votto was a hitting machine last year. To trade Hamilton, Votto, Bailey and Cueto in the same off season would be incredibly stupid.

at 6:59 AM

Anonymous said...

With or without Blanton, next year will not be a year that will see us deep in the playoffs..why mortgage our future?

ashland ateam..Votto appears to be one of the bright stars of this team..to suggest that a Keppinger/Hatteburg combination on 1st base is better is ridiculous

If Bailey develops a better curve ball..he should be a good pitcher.. He looked much better when he came back at the end of the season

Keppinger will eventually be playing shortstop. He did a far better job than Gonzalez. And like the Red sox did when he left..the team played much better

at 7:19 AM

Al in Ohio said...

John C. in Las Vegas -

I can't agree with your belief that other teams are trying to fleece the Reds in trade talks. The A's got SIX players from Arizona in return for Dan Haren. There may not be any huge names, but Beane obviously went on the assumption that out of six, at least one or two should make it. As for the Bedard trade, the Orioles will get Adam Jones (a big-time prospect), George Sherrill (a good reliever), Chris Tillman ( a 19-year old who throws in the mid-90s, sound familiar?), and another prospect.

The bottom line is that the A's don't HAVE to trade Blanton. The message they're sending to the Reds is "We have something you want/need, and here's what it would cost."

at 7:57 AM

Mr. Doom and Gloom said...

If you can get him for 1 of Bailey/Cueto/Votto and some lower level prospects or throw-ins (please send Belisle), you do it, if not, tell Billy to pound sand.

at 8:29 AM

Stecher said...

I've been a supporter of WK all along even through his questionable moves, but if he trades bailey and votto for blanton I'll be done with the reds, this will be a lost season!!! I like their team as it is, adding blanton would be great if they don't have to give up much, but he isn't worth the current asking price!

at 9:03 AM

Anonymous said...

It all depends upon what you think of Bailey. Frankly, if Billy Beane wants someone on your team, I'd say try to keep him...

But think about this if you deal Bailey, Votto and a lesser prospect and Krivsky already got Volquez (equal to Bailey) for Hamilton you essentially dealt Hamilton and Votto for Blanton. You dealt from a position of great strength (offense) to add depth at starting pitching.

I think that would be a smart move. However, I'm always skeptical of any deal involving Beane. Dude is a genius for one. And he seems tohave psychic abilities. Only time I can think someone got the better of him was Jose Guillen for Aaron Harang.

at 9:04 AM

Anonymous said...

The Red Sox might get involved now since Schilling is out. But, the Dodgers is a teaser for the Reds. Beane is getting another team involved to get more out of the Reds. I would trade Bailey and Votto plus a A player. That is enough for a starting pitcher like Blanton. He is a number four starter but you can sign Hernandez without giving up your prospects.
Any comments?

at 9:13 AM

Anonymous said...

the reds traded their best player in Hamliton.They now have an outfield of no arms,no speed, no defence. This alone will add one run to the team era per game.They have a problem at third, ss,bench depth,right handed hitting and catcher. Not with their pitching.They look a lot like the 2006 Cubs.Maybe thats what Toothpick wants,an also ran.

at 9:53 AM

Unknown said...

How come no one is including Belisle in the trade talks with the A's.....What the A's would want is equivalent what the Mets gave the Twins for Santana.....

at 10:00 AM

Rob Dicken said...

the reds traded their best player in Hamliton.They now have an outfield of no arms,no speed, no defence. This alone will add one run to the team era per game.

Well first and foremost, "defence" is spelled "defense."

Secondly, what about Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper in center? Both of those guys are extremely fast and provide pretty darn good defense in center field. And Griffey is not too shabby of a right fielder either given his age. There's always improvement with Dunn, but nonetheless, the outfield is NOT going to tack on 1 run per game to our pitchers...get real!

but if he trades bailey and votto for blanton I'll be done with the reds, this will be a lost season!!!

If you're willing to give up on the Reds because of a trade, then you aren't a true fan. I agree that the trade would be stupid, but I WILL NOT stop watching a team that I love because of that.

I am personally tired of seeing bandwagon crap around here. It's easy to hop on the train at the beginning of the season hoping for them to jump the gun as a winning team...but if the Reds start losing, the band wagoners hop off the train. If you're a fan, you stay a fan no matter what...if you hop off that train mid-way through, then stay out and don't come back. Go watch the Marlins this year...they'd LOVE to have more bandwagon fans, I am sure of it!

at 10:00 AM

Anonymous said...

Al in Ohio

To your response, then why don't the Reds offer Chris Dickerson, Matt Maloney, Tyler Pelland, Chris Valaika and Todd Frazier? Why wouldn't any teams bite on those names? Becasue they've (other teams) always wanted only our top prospects and refused to talk to us when we said no.

John C.
Las Vegas

at 10:06 AM

maus said...

Anyone look at Blanton's splits:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=blantjo01

MORE THAN A RUN DIFFERENCE IN ERA - HOME VS AWAY!!!! Pitcher's park at home.

This guy projects to no more than a #4 pitcher. If we can get hime for Votto and maybe a pitcher like Maloney, I'd say OK. Otherwise not.

at 10:07 AM

Anonymous said...

Here’s a quick breakdown of stats for a couple pitchers (taking out the players two worst games, in terms of ERA for the game): Player 1: 3.44 ERA overall, 4.18 ERA on the road, 1.57 Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio, 11 HR’s given up on the season, 3.57 K to BB ratio, 1.18 WHIP (walk and hits per innings pitched) and 6 games with 5 or more runs given up; Player 2: 3.44 ERA overall, fairly even splits in terms of ERA road/home, 1 to 1 Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio, 26 HR’s given up on the season, 4.26 K to BB ratio, 1.09 WHIP and 9 games with 5 or more runs given up.

Which Player are you taking, or are they just about even? Well just to prove a point Player 1’s stats are for Joe Blanton last year and Player 2’s are for.............Aaron Harang. Again this is taking out both players worst 2 games in terms of ERA (Blanton’s two games were 4inn & 8 runs & 6 inn & 9 runs; Harang’s were 4inn & 5 runs & 5 2/3 inn & 6 runs). Now I’m not saying that Blanton is as good as Aaron Harang, but I’m saying he’s not as bad as the overall stats imply. Now we could take out the 2 best games and see where they line up, but I assume it’s still probably pretty close. I’m also not saying to go and trade Bailey, Votto and another prospect or two, but maybe one of Bailey/Votto/Cueto and two lower prospects would be good. Also the guy is probably entering his prime years – he won’t be a free agent for 3 or 4 more years. Sounds like a lock to me if we don’t have to give up two of the Bailey/Votto/Cueto combo (obviously Jay Bruce is out).

at 10:09 AM

John Fay said...

The A's wouldn't take Belisle in a Blanton deal. Belisle is a year behind Blanton on the arbitration clock, I.e., he'll make next year what Blanton makes this year.

at 10:22 AM

Anonymous said...

How is Blanton your #3? He's easily your #2 and possibly a co-#1! Look at the numbers last year for Arroyo and Blanton. Blanton threw more innings, had a lesser ERA, lesser whip, lesser BAA and 12 less homers and still with 20 more IP's. Arroyo had 16 more k's than Blanton, but also gave up 23 more bb's (again, in LESS innings than Blanton). Arroyo is also 3 years older than Blanton.

Arroyo had a better year in 2006 and slipped a bit in 2007, while Blanton's only really not so good year was 2006 (in 2005, he would have been an 20+ game winner had the bullpen not blown 7 games for him where he went 6+ innings giving up less than 3ER).

Bigger point: Harang, Blanton and Arroyo as the reds 1-3 is VERY solid. It gives them THREE 200+ip's starting pitchers - which is pretty damn solid. Blanton's numbers will almost assuredly lower in the NL based on it the weaker league and facing pitchers. The GABP "factor" doesn't concern me as much as others.

That's a solid 1-3 and with Blanton being cheap and locked up for 3 years before becoming a FA, you can keep these guys around for a while and plug in some of their younger prospects when they are available. If this deal can get worked out, it would be a positive for THIS year and beyond for the Reds, shoring up 3 of their 5 pitching spots. Add Belisle to that mix as a 4th SP, they are looking pretty good. And we ALL know that offense is never a problem for the this team - which is why Krivsky has, for a couple years, continued to try and improve the bullpen by trading hitters away. Now he's trying to improve the rotation - kudos to him.

at 10:45 AM

Mr. Doom and Gloom said...

I see your point on service time. If he performs well - and why would they deal for him if they didn't think he could produce - then Billy is in the same situation next year.

But I doubt he's ever gonna get that much coin, because, well, he sucks. He'll be a middle reliever/spot starter by the end of this year, hopefully somewhere other than Cincy.

at 11:00 AM

Anonymous said...

While Blanton is a good (but not great) pitcher, I just can't seem to get past the fact that he pitched in a notorious pitchers' ballpark (the Mausoleum). Further, I'm in agreement that Blanton's numbers can be matched by Bailey this year, for less. I wouldn't even trade Bailey straight up for Blanton, especially not to Beane (who's proven time and again his craftiness in his dealing).

To the "fan" who said he'd give up the Reds if they make this trade....yeah, right.

at 11:11 AM

Anonymous said...

Jack -
Bailey has a good curve, have you been watching. He had no idea how to use it, and had zero command of it, but its developed I can assure you. That was his second pitch that made the top prospect (heat & a plus curve) he needs to develop a change-up, and pole changed his grip he was using all those years because it was ineffective and stupid I remember the announcers talking about it and showing a close-up of the difference. He has a curve, I saw it, its better than harangs.

at 11:18 AM

Anonymous said...

Why are people crucifying Krivsky. You all act as if Wayne has put this deal on the table and is just waiting for it to sign off. There is no valid inside information onto what names are being discussed. If WK wanted to deal 2 of the top 50 for a starter the deal would have been done a while ago for a Haran or Bedard. Once he makes a deal if he makes a deal then pass judgement but when nothing has happened....

at 11:21 AM

Anonymous said...

The fact that the Reds have such higly coveted prospects is a true testament to how far their farm system has come since the days when the late Marge Schott gutted the financial resources and personnel of the team's minor league affiliates and scouting.

I don't have any problem including Bailey in a trade for Blanton. Bailey shows promise but so does Blanton...and Blanton has not shown the command problems over the past three years that Bailey showed last season. Now, granted, last year Bailey only got a relatively small amount of time to show what he could do, but its clear that the Reds have had concerns about his command issues and would includehim a deal that they feel would improve the Reds' rotation. Blanton would do that. His walk rate is low and he has shown over the past three years to be a consistent innings eater, throwing for 230 last year alone. That would put him in good company with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo in that category.

I think the Reds are higher on Cueto than they are on Bailey and would hesitate moving him. And I do not think they will move Votto...nor do I think they should. Votto has a tremendous upside and showed what he is capable of bringing to the table offensively during his brief stint with the big club at the end of last year. Along with Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Votto are the future faces of the Cincinnati Reds.

I know that one of the comments previously posted in this thread indicated that the Reds didn't need Votto and the Dunn should be moved to first base, but I think that that is a bit shortsighted, with all due respect. Dunn is a liability defensively regardless of what position he plays and th Reds will not move him to first base. Votto is the future at that position for Cincinnati and Dunn may not be around beyond the middle of this season. He is entering the option year of his current contract and will make $13.5 million in what could be his last half season with the Reds. If Cincinnati looks to sign him to a long-term contract beyond this year it would probably cost them in the $17-20 million per year area based on Dunn's offensive production over the past several years, regardless of his astronomical strikeout rate. I just don't see the Reds paying that kind of money to anyone right now. So, if they trade Votto and then either lose Dunn to free agency next year or trade him in the middle of this season, it would leave the Reds with a glaring hole at a very key position in the infield. Hatteberg is a decent stop gap, but he is 38-years-old. Drafting one of the available first base prospects in June would be great but they would not be able to step in and take over at that slot for a couple of years, regardless of how polished they are...unless they have Albert Pujols-type capability which neither of the names mentioned above have.

I think that with the addition of Volquez and the emergence of Cueto that Cincinnati can comfortably get away with trading Bailey and one or two of the lower level prospects for Blanton. Yes, his ERA is a career 4.11, but that was in the hitter-friendly American League. Yes, he was pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oakland and would have to pitch in the launching pad of GABP, but I still think that he has sufficient talent to improve on those numbers in the National League and the improved Reds closer situation could save him some additional wins through the season.

at 11:25 AM

Anonymous said...

Tell Wayne he made the biggest mistake of his life by trading Josh Hamilton. Volqusjkdkbsd is horrible and the value compared to Hamilton is pathedic. I hate Wayne right now!!!!Josh Hamilton is the man and we need him back!!!!!And trade Dunn for Blanton

at 11:27 AM

Anonymous said...

i couldn't agree more with the previous post. i think that josh hamilton was the man, and was a really good story for cincinnati. imagine in a few years having Hamilton, Bruce, and Stubbs in our outfield. Trade Dunn for Blanton, because Dunn is terrible and cant catch a fly ball unless there was a twinkie attached. we need to unload dunn because he is worthless, and try to get josh back. if not, im moving to texas.

at 11:39 AM

Al in Ohio said...

JC in LV:

You're missing the point of trades. Oakland is the team offering something of value. (Note I said offering. Again, there is no sign they are desperate to trade Blanton). If that thing of value is something another team needs (which the Reds DO, don't kid yourself), than the onus of making an attractive offer is on the team NEEDING something, not the team OFFERING. The A's have probably made their pitch: Bailey/Cueto, Votto, and another prospect, or Blanton doesn't go to the Reds. Simple. The Reds are being offered a guy who would immediately become their second best starting pitcher (Sorry, Arroyo fans. No one outside of Reds Nation agrees with you guys about Bronson.) The A's know that, and they're going to demand quality in return.

at 11:43 AM

Anonymous said...

Move to Texas 11:25 and 11:27 and take your near-identical self-congratulatory posts with you. Tool.

at 12:14 PM

Anonymous said...

Al in Ohio, I agree that Blanton would step in and be the #2 starter for the Reds ahead of Arroyo and it is possible that the A's have made their pitch and would like to have all of those players for Blanton...but the Reds would never and should never trade Bailey, Cueto, Votto and another prospect for Blanton, if that's what you meant.

I think that a deal will get done but not until the A's come down from any offer that even closely resembles anything like that. Again, though, this is all just speculation and it is possible that the A's may not have made an official request/offer.

I'm honestly hearing that the Reds may offer Bailey and two other prospects (possibly Stubbs) for Blanton. The Reds are still interested in possibly moving Freel but I have heard nothing with regard to Freel being invilved in any deal related to Blanton.

at 12:38 PM

Anonymous said...

WHAT! Crazy Man, just crazy!

at 12:43 PM

cleatson said...

Blanton has some stuff and is 27, but he is terribly inconsistent. Look at his game logs the past three years. There is little progress in his consistency - a very streaky pitcher. He would be frustrating to watch, especially knowing that we give up top prospects for him. If he was a FA, I might give up some cash for him. I would not give up our top prospects for him. I say that we enjoy watching the young guys develop this year and not worry too much about the Ws quite yet (i.e. this year). There is value in a year of development for so many guys.

at 1:03 PM

Anonymous said...

I'll start this by saying Billy Beane is a thief. No way you can trade with him and come out on top. Secondly, Joe Blanton is an innings-eater, but his stuff is pedestrian and he will fail miserably in GABP. I do want to take this time to strongly agree with nvreds. Jack is too busy negging himself out to pay attention to real life. He'd rather wallow around in his own nightmare world where the Reds are perpetual losers. Let him have his fun. Bailey has a hammer curve, which he can't command, and a mid 90's fastball that he also cannot command. That's why young pitchers take time to develop. Bailey has so much movement on his fastball he just misses corners alot and gets behind in counts. Bedard had the same command problems and just broke out last year. It's unfortunate we don't have the O's pitching coach, but hopefully Dick Pole isn't a complete nincompoop and can help Bailey. He just needs to challenge hitters more, and he definitely needs to shorten his step toward home to keep baserunners from running wild.

at 2:01 PM

Anonymous said...

Let's ride our young studs for the next five years. After the 2012 season (a year before they reach FA status or $12M+ per year), trade each of the four for three prospects each that fit the same mold they are in at this juncture in time. That will give the Reds 12 prime prospects from other organizations to start the 2013 season. Also whoever is GM will win the Exec of the Year Award.

at 2:08 PM

Anonymous said...

if everyone is concerned about trading votto, why not get the A's to include 1b dan johnson in the deal who would probably hit 25hr in GABP

blanton/johnson
bailey or cueto/votto/2 prospects

the yankees/twins/red sox all tried to get johnson going back to mid summer last season

at 2:13 PM

Anonymous said...

Blanton is not the man. Look at his home/road stats. Great at home in the As' pitchers park and terrible on the road - 5.11 away era in 07 and 5:12 away era in 06.

at 2:32 PM

Anonymous said...

Ok, Boston is down a starter. They won't waste time, they will pounce all over the A's. Blanton will be a Redsox before you can blink an eye. If the Reds want to upgrade the rotation, they had better act and act quickly. Signing Mercker for the bullpen is totally stupid!
I am a season ticket holder and I want a winning team not a old folks home for washed up pitchers. Come on Mr. Castellini, instruct psycho Krivsky to trade for Blanton or anyone who can start.

Bill in Lexington

at 2:32 PM

Anonymous said...

Only trouble with trading is that
both teams forty man roster are full. So, the A's would have to trade even with some top prospects that aren't on the Reds roster.
On Mercker, somebody told me last year he was retired for good.

at 2:39 PM

Anonymous said...

why does it take 2 hours for a comment to post here?

I already posted that Dan Johnson should be included in this deal - it would make too much sense:

Blanton and Dan Johnson
For
Baily, Votto and X

The Reds get their #2 starter and a starting firstbasemen who can hit 25+ homers in the NL (currently, Hattey and Keppinger do not produce nearly enough power at the 1b position).

Bailey MAY or MAY NOT develop. Votto looks to be a good player in the limited time in the majors last year. But if the Reds are looking to get it done RIGHT NOW, getting a first basemen with proven pop (already 15+ homers 2 in only 3 years) and legitimate 200+ innings pitcher, is going to make them a better team RIGHT NOW.

If you think Bailey will be better than Blanton in the long run - it's possibly you are right. If you think he's going to be better than Blanton next year or the year after, you are most likely dead wrong. As the other poster said, it takes time to develop pitching. Blanton IS developed, and a proven innings eater at a slightly above 4.00 career ERA - which, if you haven't noticed (especially in the AL) is very impressive. He'd be getting $10million a year on the free agent market with those numbers.

This deal makes too much sense to not do.

at 2:58 PM

John Fay said...

Sorry for the delay.

Blogger was acting up. And I just spent 30 minutes on the stairmaster, and fixed my squeaky dryer -- I think at least. A little soap on the belt. Don't know where I heard that but it seemed to work.

Anyway, we're going to have a new blogging system soon. Maybe as early as mid-March. When it's up and running, you'll be able to post instantly.

I do the best I can moderating comments, but we're getting a ton lately -- 300 in the last three days. That's 600 emails I had to open.

But thanks for your patience.

at 3:03 PM

Anonymous said...

Blanton's ERA away from Oakland is over 5. You're telling me you don't even think Bailey can get his ERA under 5 next year? I wouldn't include Bailey in any deal for Blanton. Votto + others would be a place to start, but no Bailey.

at 4:32 PM

reaganspad said...

Jack, you are coming around. Couldn't agree with you more on this:

"ashland ateam..Votto appears to be one of the bright stars of this team..to suggest that a Keppinger/Hatteburg combination on 1st base is better is ridiculous"

OOps, you lost it again as Bailey has the best curveball in the org. He is just in love with his heater:

"If Bailey develops a better curve ball..he should be a good pitcher.. He looked much better when he came back at the end of the season"

I love Kepp, but he is a
1st baseman, utility guy. And the Redsox took off because of OSU's Jacoby Ellsbury and 2 other kids

"Keppinger will eventually be playing shortstop. He did a far better job than Gonzalez. And like the Red sox did when he left..the team played much better"

at 6:28 PM

Anonymous said...

Giving up Cueto or Bailey would be stupid, even for Blanton. The Reds need all the pitching they can get this spring, to weed out the duds.

I said pitching, Mercker, not shuffleboard!

at 6:54 PM

Ashland ATeam said...

Oh yeah, now I remember why I never post on this blog... you guys build straw men and after tearing them down you feel like you've made a solid argument.

Look at what I wrote:

"Do the Reds need Votto? I mean really NEED him? With Hatteburg/Keppinger at 1st, does Votto's production really outweigh theirs? Furthermore, look at this year's free agent market - good first basemen are a dime a dozen (example: Sean Casey signing for less than $1 million)"

I didn't say that Hatteburg/Kepp was better than Votto - that's silly talk. The point I made is that first basemen are easier to come by than #2 starters, and with Hatteburg and Keppinger at first, Votto is not a need, he's a luxury.

We NEED a proven #2 starter. If that means giving up a first baseman that we can replace easily, then we should do it.

at 6:58 PM

Anonymous said...

Baseball America projects Bailey as the Red's #1 starter in 2011. Cueto is projected as the #3 starter with Votto the starting first baseman.

BA projects Blanton as the #4 starter in 2011.

Let me repeat that. BA projects Blanton as the #4 starter in 2011.

Trade a potential #1 and #3 starter, plus a starting first baseman...for a #4 starter.

The inmates are truely running the asylum.

at 7:45 PM

Anonymous said...

They call 'em "projections" for a reason. BA also "projected" a Mets staff of Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher would be the start of many world championships.

We all know that "projection" worked out.

In fact, these "projections" have a very low percentage of working out. It's just prospect fodder for gullible fans.

at 3:42 AM

Anonymous said...

Even if Krivsky wanted to trade Bailey or Cueto, plus Votto, plus another player for Blanton, surely Jockety/Big Bob would have to veto it. At least one of the three would have to be thinking straight, right?

So here's my theory to explain this ridiculous notion that the Reds could possibly be considering making something close to such a blunderous trade as this: Beane wants to extract as much as possible from the Dodgers for Blanton, and he's pretending/leaking that the Reds might be willing to offer more, even though he already knows they won't. The Reds are the perfect team for Beane to use because it's plausible, and Kriv will either just adhere to his usual policy of keeping his lips sealed, or he's a willing partner in slyly helping Beane try to get more from the Dodgers. Never underestimate the shrewdness of the Kriv!

Ok, I'll assume I'm right on that, so I can stop worrying the Reds will do something so stupid.

at 8:46 AM

Anonymous said...

this is all conjecture, but I wonder if we could deal Votto, Volquez and some low level prospect (Maloney?) for Blanton. That would be a deal I'd do. I like Votto, but by doing that, you have a rotation locked up for years of Harang, Arroyo, Blanton, Bailey, Cueto. That's a solid core. Plus by making it Volquez (still thought highly of), you've turned Hamilton into Blanton. That's a money deal.

at 2:01 PM

reaganspad said...

Ashland, no disrespect to you. I was just astonished that I was agreeing with Jack.

But to your point about
1st base. They are not as easy to find as you think. When was the last time the Reds had a 1st baseman with 100 RBI's?

Sean Casey had 99 in 99 and 04. Hal Morris before that. Been along time since doggie was here.

Loved the mayor, but how would the Reds have done with Konerko instead?

Votto is an 100 RBI guy. Hatte isn't. Kepp isn't

at 4:49 PM

Anonymous said...

reaganspad..you have this fixation with me dude and ya really need to move on

I am not coming around to anything.

The reds have some good pieces and some potential..but they aint gonna do better than 500 this year..and even that would be miraculous

Dude you need to go see Homer Bailey pitch in person. I like the fellow and think he did better when he came back..but his breaking stuff is not better than that of a Jr college player

at 6:31 PM

Anonymous said...

hey jack every report I've read says Homer has a plus curve. So should we believe you or the people who get paid to watch him pitch?

at 7:03 PM

Anonymous said...

Blanton had 2 really bad road starts he gave up 8 runs in 6 innings to Balt. in may and gave up 9 runs in 4 innings to Detroit in aug. he also had around 20 starts where he gave up 3 runs or less .

for the statisticians, what would his road era be excluding those 2 starts?

at 7:47 AM

Anonymous said...

j diggerty..

I find it awfully hard to believe that you somehow are privy to reports on baseball players. Furthermore..and if John Fay is allowed to do so and comment..one of the reasons it took Homer so long to make it to the majors is that he lacked breaking stuff. Actually..it was no secret

I don't profess to be an expert on pitchers..yet we watched Homer with two scouts from other teams standing above the Frontgate Lounge for five innings..both commented on his lack of a curve ball. One scout said Bailey does not even like to throw it because it was so bad.

I like Homer Bailey and I think he showed better presence when he came back from rehab. But unless he develops and uses better breaking pitches..he simply will not do so well as a starter

Conversely, with his focus, presence, "hard stuff", dont be surprised if you see Homer eventually becoming a top notch closer in this league

at 10:45 AM

reaganspad said...

Jack, I have no fixation with you, just some of your opinions. Nor do I have a fixation with Griffey...I have NO idea where you pulled that out of...

Go to MLB.com where they say Bailey has the best curveball in the organization.
My opinion versus yours: he has a very good curve, he just does not use it. He threw way too many fastballs last year

at 11:13 AM

Anonymous said...

John Fay.. u may want to comment on Homer Baileys "breaking stuff" or lack of..

I think people on this blog have a very short memory regarding Bailey..he was held from coming up due to his lack of a good breaking pitches and control issues..both of which held true at the major league level

On at least two occasions..Ted Power..pitching coach at Louisville made comments regarding Homers need to develop a better breaking pitch

I would suggest to you reaganspad that MLB.com is wrong,, off the top of my head .. both Harang and Arroyo have far superior breaking balls ..you can take that even further..I would say Lohse and Beslisle had better breaking stuff

reganspad you still continue to defend mediocrity..whether it be Gonzalez , Bailey, etc..what was our record last year with these wonderful players?

at 11:26 AM

Anonymous said...

Dayton Daily News

Jeff Brantley on Homer Bailey:

"Best pitcher on the staff. He loves his curveball, but it isn't a big-league pitch,....

at 11:51 AM

John Fay said...

Hs breaking pitch is considered above average. He has trouble controlling it time. But remember he's 21. When Harang was 21 he was pitching A ball.

at 12:03 PM

Anonymous said...

So john Fay...Ted Power his pitching coach knows less than you? What about Jeff Brantley?

At least you admit he has trouble controlling it

That was my point..he will be ok when he does gain that control

at 5:32 PM

Anonymous said...

Okay, so this trade rumor is definitely interesting. I see a lot of people on here thinking that the Reds and Krivsky want to win this year, when they have said the exact opposite. Any Reds fan who agrees with trading Bailey and Votto is crazy. The Reds need to keep the farm in tact and continue building our pitching. This offseason has been a very productive one as far as I am concerned, and losing these two would be a travesty, even though Blanton is loved by A's fans, and is regarded very much as a ground ball pitcher. Either way he still has a career 4.11 ERA, and set career highs in batters faced and pitches thrown in a season. We all know that Oakland is a huge and forgiving park, and I would be surprised if Blanton didn't drop off considerably in the confines of GABP. If you want to make this deal Krivsky should offer Cueto, Stubbs, and cash. I doubt Oakland takes it because Beane is known to be tough to deal with, especially when he doesn't feel he needs to make a trade, but if they can't get Blanton with minimal loss, I feel like it's best to let him be. Anyone else agree?

-Dan in Dayton

at 10:40 PM

Anonymous said...

I want to keep reiterating this... I think it's really important in evaluating Blanton:

Joe Blanton

2005 home - 3.35 ERA
2005 road - 3.73 ERA

2006 home - 4.52 ERA
2006 road - 5.12 ERA

2007 home - 2.69 ERA
2007 road - 5.11 ERA

Career home - 3.55 ERA
Career road - 4.66 ERA

Be realistic about who he is... In GABP I think you have to conclude that he's maybe a 4.50 or 4.60 type guy.

If it takes Bailey or Cueto to get him, I don't want any part of it.

at 11:34 AM

Anonymous said...

Obviously Blanton's home/away splits are scaring the hell out of the Reds, Dodgers, Angels, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.

And he makes this point:

"And the Yankees can make a deal for Blanton without surrendering either Joba Chamberlain or Hughes, because the Athletics aren't necessarily looking for major-league ready prospects in return for Blanton. They would take talented players from Class A or Double-A."

at 2:15 PM

Anonymous said...

if all they want is minor leagurs in return, then I say do it, but I say no if Baily is involved.

at 7:04 AM

Anonymous said...

Blanton is such mediocrity! I mean, not bad, but nothing great. If he were a Red, I'd predict 190 IP or so and a 4.60 ERA. What's that worth? Not nothing, but NOT top prospects!!! Not even a single top prospect.

I wouldn't give up Bailey or Cueto for him -- not even straight-up! -- and to be honest I'd be upset if Frazier were included. (I admit I'm irrationally high on Frazier... I think he's going to be a great-hitting 3B in just a few years.)

You don't develop great young promising players -- potential studs -- just so you can flip them for mediocrity!

Have patience! Quit going for the immediate payoff! Wait for the young guys, and try to be good for a LONG TIME.

I'm afraid that with Jocketty on board now Wayne feels like it has to happen in 2008 or he's gone. That is no way to develop a long-term winner.

at 8:53 PM

Anonymous said...

Blanton had a 5.11 ERA on the road and he's a product of Oakland's ballpark. Without Oakland's foul territory to help him out, he gives up too many hits. He's not worth any one of our 4 starting pitching prospects, much less having to throw in Votto. This would be a ripoff for the Reds and hopefully Krivsky is looking at all of the numbers.

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Thursday, February 7, 2008

Blanton update

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