Onto Wednesday and Arroyo
My off-day story will be on Bronson Arroyo. As much as is made of the importance of the Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez being successful, Arroyo having a turnaround year isn't far behind.
He went from going 14-11 with 3.29 ERA in the '06 to going 9-15 with 4.23 ERA last season. But he only had one fewer quality starts -- 22 to 23.
“If you have 200 innings and 20-plus quality starts, you've kept your team in the game two-thirds of the the time, which is pretty good," Arroyo said. “The other things kind of fall into place. You always look at wins and losses because that’s what everyone else looks at. You try to get three a month if you can, but that doesn’t always happen.”
Arroyo's problem last year was he went 0-7 with 7.28 ERA from May 11 to June 24. The second start of the streak was the 129-pitch outing in San Diego. Arroyo paid dearly for that. But he got himself straightened out and finished -- 4-2, 3.16 ERA in his last nine starts.
He said he worked to strengthen his shoulder in the offseason to give his fastball a bit more zip. Arroyo throws a ton of offspeed pitches. But when his fastball is at 90, 91, it makes those pitches much better. He had a great spring.
Wednesday, we'll start to see how it translates into the regular season.
44 Comments:
Hope he has a good year pitching. I saw those 'musical' commercials yesterday. He needs to stick to pitching baseballs.
That was a Jerry Narron special that cost Bronson and inflated his ERA. Take that out and he's 9-8 with an ERA under 4.
Just lucky it didn't cause permanent damage. Look at Elizardo Ramirez. Let's use a guy in relief and then less than 18 hours later let's ask him to start a game.... He's never been the same since
I know that you can't make a quality start every time out and that having 2/3rds of your outings be quality starts is very successful. That being said, Bronson's quote strikes me as odd. Why would you not go out and try to make a quality start every time?
I'm not trying to make this a bigger deal than it is, but I think Bronson's laid back attitude hurts him sometimes. I feel like he's a big partier (I've seen him out personally several times) and has a hard time focusing on pitching for the whole season, or even for a whole game. Sometimes I feel like we shouldn't even bother pitching him in day games. If you look at his Day/Night splits from the past three years, it is obvious that something has to give.
I just think if he were a little more focused on his job then he would be much more effective.
huh joe?
Bronson does his best and his best is pretty good. Of course he wants to go out and win but he's realistic.
I want to be paid $5,000 billion a year but I know that's not going to happen... Arroyo knows he isn't going to pitch perfect everytime so there's nothing wrong with him realizing that.
You are reaching here to make this into something.
Hopefully the pressure will be on Bronson to keep up with the rest of the rotation this year. He seems to have a better mindset this year, stregthening his shoulder vs worrying about his diet last year. I am with you and think he will have a bounce back type year.
when Bronson focuses hes a really good pitcher and a great deal of fun to watch..
Conversely..don't blame anyone else for his lack of consistency ..he is what he is at times..inconsistent
Hey, it wouldn't hurt if Arroyo got a little R-U-N support either.
horsefeathers Jack. You have said all offseason that Bronson only had a few good months. Truth is he had a bad 6 week stretch. Man how you change with the facts...
"Arroyo's problem last year was he went 0-7 with 7.28 ERA from May 11 to June 24. The second start of the streak was the 129-pitch outing in San Diego."
For once I agree with everything Jack said in his blog!
Jack, meet me for a beer? I think Atlanta is about half way between Cincy and Ft Myers. ;)
Arroyo when focused is so fun to watch. I hope for all of us that he is READY and FOCUSED every 5th day.
Maybe he should talk to Mario Soto while hes in town.
1 game out of first place baby!
I listened to tape and replaced the quote with a better one that explains what he was saying better.
Brick,
On spot buddy, you give him another run or two per outing last year, and take away a few blown saves and his record might be reversed.
If he give the Reds 200 innings and 20 quality starts, he is right taht he will probably going to have a very good year. Assuming the run support that was not there last year is there in 2008, he should win 14-17 games. Not bad.
read my post carefully reagans..
in the good old days..pitchers routinely had 130 pitch counts ..if not more..they did fine
I did Jack, and I remember all your other pitching posts saying Aaron is our only pitcher. Just because you now say Bronson can be really good when he focuses, does not replace all the times you called him average, saying he only had a "good 2 month period."
Arroyo is flat out a good pitcher. Just like Cordero is a good pitcher, the guy who improved our bullpen. Do you remember all those posts Jack? We do
They are right there with all those posts saying that you will be happy if we overachieve and reach 500. I got to tell you Jack, I won't settle for such mediocrity as a fan. 500 will be underachieving for this team. You may settle for that, but I am a realist and this team wins 86-90 games
Ch risty Mathewson would laugh his ass off over all the "wisdom" in MLB revolving around "handling" starting pitchers.
He once pitched three shutouts in six days! Like somehow we're weaker now than in the 1910s???
So....one game out of first place! Wow, still in contention this late in the season. Dusty is God.
reaganspad, I definitely remember Jack stating those exact words. I also remember Jack stating along the lines of "Arroyo is a good 4 or 5 starter on any other team." Ridiculous.
Anyway, I agree with everything you said JF. Baseball players these days are paid too much and whine and cry too much. Management teams baby the hell of of these players. If you went back 20-30 years and said you were sitting out of the game because of "turf toe," every single person on that team would look you in the face and laugh. Hell, I remember plenty of players on this Reds team who have sat out WEEKS (no, not a day or two) because of "turf toe."
What's that? You strained a muscle in your finger and you play outfield? That's okay. Take a 3 week vacation!
Pfffffft! Give me a friggin' break!
reagan..perhaps John Fay can help you out.. For a franchise to make a ten game improvement in one year is exceptional
I love arroyo..but he aint a flat out great pitcher reagan..At times he can be good..at times hes very marginal
show moderation dude
I agree with Jack: A 10-game improvement is huge. I'm on record as predicting this team will win 85games, which would be huger than huge.
On turf toe: It's a very serious injury. It ended Jack Lambert's career, I believe.
On pitch counts: It's in what you're used to. Pitches routinely threw 140, 150 back in the day. But 129 pitches is a lot these days. You can't go through your career throwing 110 at the most and then jump to 130.
CSA: Liked the comment, but this is a family blog.
Watch out for Kyle Lohse this year now that he has a quality pitching coach in Dave Duncan. He just tossed 5 shutout innings versus the Rockies.
Fay and company: Agree with you 100% on this one. Arroyo could be the pivotal guy! You know what the young guys will give you, wow factor one outing and ouch the next, thats just life. Harrang is a quality guy almost every time, and Fogg will be a 50/50 guy to get to the next day. So BA is the biggest question mark for this year (short of the lineup that we have hashed out previously). I am a BA fan, and think he got the bad end of the stick last year. Yes, he did have some bad outings, BUT JOHN, WHAT WAS THE RUN SUPPORT IN HIS STARTS LAST YEAR???? I think he would have about 4-5 losses that would have been wins if we could have scored 4 runs or better, AM I WAY OFF ON THAT?
John, turf toe normally only occurs on artificial turfs to football players. It makes it nearly unbelievable for baseball players on natural turf/grass fields to get it.
It i a debilitating disorder, yes. But, it can be treated rather quickly by using more shoes with more rigid soles and cushioned inner soles. There is medication for it and can be treated rather quickly with physical therapy. The only reason I know this stuff is because I have many family members that are in the medical field.
I have no problem with players sitting out a week or so because of "turf toe," but months on end is a little extreme.
And I do agree about the pitch count assessment. By limiting pitches, we are prolonging the pitchers' careers. Pitchers are pitching into nearly their 50's these days. Careers end for pitchers in their lower to mid 30's when Christy Matthewson pitched.
i hear a lot of folks bashing burton on the radio and on the blog. he looked pretty sharp to me. all of his pitches had crazy movement, so much movement that his fastball tailed up instead of down, probably because of overthrowing. after all, he was clearly nervous as hell and still only missed in the zone on 3 pitches. a foul back to the previous batter, the homer, and a crisp liner foul to the following batter.
Five whole innings? Was he in long relief? If you remember, Lohse used to give us 5-7 shutout innings every 4th or 5th start...and he'd give up 3 or 4 runs for 2 or 3 starts...and then he'd give up 8 in 2 or 3 innings - hence his 5+ ERA; let's talk about inconsistency...Arroyo goes from great to solid - Lohse went from very good to awful. No ill-wishes towards the guy, but with Cueto, Volquez, Fogg, and eventually Bailey, we won't miss him that badly.
I hate to jump off topic, but I will be interested to see the attendence numbers Thursday and Sunday with Cueto and Volquez taking the mound. I realize Thursday afternoon games don't the draw the best, but I remember the excitment last season when Homer made his debut. Bronson is very important, but our season depends on these two young pitchers. Just a question to the fellow bloggers, how many plan to attend either of these games? These games to me are the most interesting ones of the first week of the season.
Reaganspad,
There's no way this team wins more than 75 games. They'll lead the league in strikeouts and fly ball outs, the defense is average on a good day, and the starters are unproven at the very least. I love this team. I grew up in Cincinnati and am a die hard Reds and Bengals fan, but I've got to call it like it is. Bruce and Votto should be starting and playing everyday. Patterson is a good ballplayer, but what is Bruce learning in AAA? I like the fact that the two young pitchers made the club as they deserved, but the Reds will take some lumps with them and that's OK. The one saving grace is the Central is the worst division in baseball. Baker is also a wait and see manager. I like him on TV, but he's never impressed me as a skipper.
I don't want to make us dwell on the past too much but...
Josh Hamilton had 2 "stellar" catches, and a 2 run go ahead homer in the 9th off of JJ Putz of Seattle to lead the Rangers to a win last night.
I really miss watching him play. I guess I'll have to watch some Ranger games online!
I really hope Volquez steps up, because it will be sad if we don't have anything to show for Hamilton this year.
I wish Josh H all the success in the world, but your just going to drive yourself crazy if you continuously play "What if" with the rest of his career.
dickens..you dont know what you are talking about. Turf toe is a debilitating injury and is not resolved in a weeks time. As a matter of fact..it can be career ending
"special shoes and orthodics " really are very little help specific to turf toe
the medications you speak of are non inflamatories and pain meds which do not have any impact on resolution
I am the medical field
jerber..I agree.. I think Josh will be a big loss both offensively and defensively..Its a shame we have to carry Griffey and his 12 million salary and have to trade great talent to get pitching
On a cold Tuesday night in the Pacific Northwest, Hamilton put on an impressive display of both raw power and speed in saving the Rangers from themselves and a ravaging flu bug. Spring Training is nice, but call this game the first real indication of what the Rangers might have picked up in a trade from Cincinnati.
Hamilton's power supply was certainly the most memorable moment, as he hit a two-run home run off of All-Star closer J.J. Putz in the top of the ninth inning that carried the Rangers to a 5-4 victory over the Mariners at Safeco Field.
jerber.. you had to see Hamilton in person to know how special he is. Lets hope he stays healthy and lets hope that Volquez wins 15 games for the Reds
There's no way this team wins more than 75 games. They'll lead the league in strikeouts and fly ball outs, the defense is average on a good day, and the starters are unproven at the very least. I love this team. I grew up in Cincinnati and am a die hard Reds and Bengals fan, but I've got to call it like it is. Bruce and Votto should be starting and playing everyday. Patterson is a good ballplayer, but what is Bruce learning in AAA? I like the fact that the two young pitchers made the club as they deserved, but the Reds will take some lumps with them and that's OK. The one saving grace is the Central is the worst division in baseball. Baker is also a wait and see manager. I like him on TV, but he's never impressed me as a skipper.
Tommy, I have to really disagree with you there. This team is vastly improved since last year. How is that not visible? When's the last time you could honestly say we have a solid starting rotation from top to bottom?
Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and Fogg is a SOLID starting rotation. Just take a look at what the Cubs have: Zambrano, Lily, Ryan Dempster, Rich Hill, and Jason Marquis. Dempster has had success as a reliever in the past, but last year was pretty bad for him. Even with Cincinnati, I don't believe he had very good starting seasons.The only solidity of that rotation is Zambrano and Lily. Rich Hill is kind of like Kyle Lohse...and on again/off again guy.
Oh, and did I mention, the Cubs are getting picked to WIN the NL central? I'm sorry, but if they are picked to win the NL Central, it has to be because of their hitting. Their starting pitching is very mediocre. The same goes with the Brewers.
Hell, we have two guys on our team that have the potential to be Rookie of the year: Cueto and Volquez. Not to mention, we have a pretty decent bullpen.
I am just saying...don't jump the gun on this team too early and say they are going to suck this early in the season. Come mid-June or July, you may be very sorry that you did. It's going to be kind of hard to jump on the bandwagon at that point. People around here remember the negative remarks pretty darn good! ;)
Tommy in Tucson,
Don't be so "down" on the team so early. I really think this team can surprise some people outside of this area, and apparently in this area. Outside of Cincinnati most people don't even know who Volquez and Cueto are. If they can pitch as well as they did this spring and with the improved bullpen there is no reason this team can't win 85 games. And 85 wins in this division gives any team a chance to win the division.
-----
I am constantly amazed how negative so many people are about this team. I realize we don't have the starting line-up of the New York Yankees, but reality is we are a small market ball club. And to win in a small market, you have to develop young talent. And it's very true that we may not win a championship this season but we have developed young talent. We are only a year away from rooting for Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Votto, Bruce, Dunn (hopefully), and Stubbs. And we have a owner that has proved with the signing of Cordero and the releasing of Stanton that he is not afraid to spend money to fill in holes. And if that doesn't convince you to be positive, just think back to the days that "Uncle Carl" owned the team.
I'll be there Sunday. Looks like it's going to be a beautiful day to be out at the ball park. It will be interesting to see how Volquez performs against Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, etc.
The Hamilton deal will most likely be just another mistake by Krivsky. If Griffey and Dunn are allowed to leave next year, wouldn't an outfield of Kearns, Hamilton and Bruce be pretty solid? Sure much better than an outfield of Bruce, Hopper and Dickerson. If the Reds are headed in the right direction they sure are not taking the most direct route. I'm not basing my comments on the fact they lost their opener. That's irrelevant. They lost to one of the best pitchers in baseball. It happens.
However, for those who watched the game on TV did you hear Chris Welsh comment at least 2 or 3 times how the Diamondbacks as an organization decided to go with their younger players and let them sink or swim in the major leagues instead of keeping them in AAA? Their organizational view is that the best place to learn to play in the major leagues is in the major leagues, not AAA. Welsh went on to say that he thought that was a better approach than playing mediocre veteran players. (a.k.a. the Reds)
The Reds will likely win more games this year than last, but they are still years away from being a team that can reasonably hope to play in the World Series.
Tommy in Tucson, could not agree with you more.
The anticipation, excitelment and unreasonable expectations at the beginning of the season are so typical of Reds fans. Who can blame them? How many losing seasons is it now, seven? What else is there?
I am not remotely convinced this team is going to fair much better than last year's. The pitching is largely unproven or overrated. They took a huge hit when they traded their second best player in Hamilton. They did not address the catching position. Gonzalez isn't playing again.
I think 78-80 wins and a third place finish in the Central would be a real accomplishment for this team.
"Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and Fogg is a SOLID starting rotation."
potentially solid, yes, potentially great even...but i wouldn't go calling that a solid rotation when one has very limited big league experience, and the other has never pitched in the bigs. i think the expectations for both the young guys are a little high from most fans based on some good spring outings. i think belisle will be a key figure in the reds success, if any, this year.
Don't take this the wrong way Rob, but Volquez is past rookie status. He's logged 80 innings in the Majors and 50 is the cut off point.
I've seen his name mentioned in ROY discussions on a few blogs actually.
I'll have a cookie too.
Can we put the Hamilton thing to rest? Some folks are following him closer than they do the Reds.
The Reds have hitting. They needed pitching.
The Rangers were NOT any more thrilled about giving up Volquez than we were about Hamilton.
Hamilton has never proven he can stay healthy, even in the minors pre-addiction
Hamilton was a disruption in the clubhouse with the Johnny Narron thing.
The Reds have the option of re signing Dunn and they have Jay Bruce at Louisville. That leaves ONE outfielder. If the Reds can't find one guy between free agents, the minors and Stubbs, that's on them.
Hopper got such a good look last year because Hamilton couldn't stay on the field.
Hamilton could win an MVP at some point.
Volquez could win a Cy Young at some point.
Josh Hamilton was NOT the best player on the team last year.
Brandon Phillips was the best all-around player. Junior was the best, and still is, the BEST and most accomplished hitter on the Reds roster.
The Reds weren't going to win with Hamilton if they had a deck of cards starting 3 of 5 days, so they made a move or two. Josh Hamilton is a Ranger. Edinson Volquez is a Red. Please, please, PLEASE leave it be.
John, Jack, Tommy, et al, a 10 game improvement would be big if we had won 60 games in 2006. The Reds won 80 games in 2006. What is the difference in that 06 team and this 08 one?
In 2006, Harrang was 16-11, Arroyo was 14-11, Milton 8-8, Lohse 3-5, Clausen 3-8, E Ramirez 4-9.
Those starters were part of a team that won 80 games. Starters for 08, better or worse than 06?
Weathers was 12-19, Coffey was 8-12, and Eddie was 8-10. We now have Cordero.
Bullpen for 08 better or worse than 06?
at the plate, no 100 RBI guys (Dunn 92, BP 75, Griff 72, EE 72) and no one scores 100 (Dunn 99, Freel 67)
Offense for 08, better or worse than 06?
Defense, Phillips has improved, EE has improved, Dunn has improved, Lopez is gone and that is a huge improvement. Keppinger is a lot better than Lopez, and AGon is a lot better than Royce Clayton.
This team is not going to be compared with how bad the 2007 team was, but where the 2006 team was, and improve on that.
Do you think that Dusty is better or worse than Jerry?
The answer to that last question is the 08 that Dunn and Griffey have....
Are we seriously bringing up Austin Kearns again?
What has he done since leaving Cincinnati? Moreover, what did he ever do here that was so great, other than get hurt all the time? Other than play a full season without getting hurt, he's done nothing since he left that's worth missing.
Don't take this the wrong way Rob, but Volquez is past rookie status. He's logged 80 innings in the Majors and 50 is the cut off point.
I've seen his name mentioned in ROY discussions on a few blogs actually.
I'll have a cookie too.
That's for pointing that out. All I knew was that he was low on innings and could possibly be ROY. No problem, though. I still think he will be up pretty darn good numbers this year.
No cookies left. Sorry! :)
Fay is right, Turf Toe is a debilitating injury but that's not the point. Playing hurt ended Dizzy Dean's career. My point about MLB today is that by overprotecting pitchers they create weaker pitchers more vulnerable to injuries. In the old days, pitchers played more and developed tougher bodies. Pitch count limits actually pre-dispose pitchers to more and earlier injuries by keeping pitchers weaker.
Volquez Cy Young Award? How about he just survives a full year here with a sub-4.00 ERA and 15 or 20 wins?
Relating to the comments about quality starts. In my opinion the definition of quality start should be tightened up. I don't consider a 4.50 ERA (3ER in 6 INNINGS) to be quality. mandate a <4.00 ERA (2 in 6, 3 in 7)and I would be satisfied.
I doubt this post will get read by those who took exception to my earlier comments, but at that end of the day every trade a GM makes will get analyzed over and over. Some trades take years to play out. Others can be rated pretty quickly. Austin Kearns played in RFK for the last year and a half. IF you have never been to RFK you should know that there is not a worse park in the majors from a hitter's perspective. I'd take Kearns in a heart beat over Patterson. If Dunn leaves with Griffey next year this team will be far worse off instead of better because of trades that have been made unloading outfielders.
So let me get this straight the "pitching rich Rangers" (joke) hated to trade Volquez. One can't seriously believe that to be the case. I've read they were disillusioned with him and looking to unload him.
I hope Volquez figures it out and has a great year. But a 3 - 11 career record in the majors gives one reason to pause.
Hamilton may have his issues, but the ceiling on him is very high and if it were my decision, which of cours it isn't, he'd still be a Red.
Let's see how the season unfolds. If the Reds finish below .500 again Krivsky is gone. If they win at least 81 games maybe he keeps his job. My point being for every good move he makes there seems to be a least one corresponding bad move. In a small market a team can't afford those percentages.
If one can't agree on the trades at least take a look at the number of contracts given Reds' players that, in hindsight, were mistakes.
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