Dunn deal
I wrote about Adam Dunn for my off day story. Dunn, as usual, did not have a lot to say about the speculation about his future. But he can't help but wonder if the club will pick up his option.
“I'd like to know some times what's the deal,” he said. “I know they probably don't have the answer. But I like to see where their mind is. I don't know what they're thinking.”
Wayne Krivsky would not say when the club will make the call on the option. "It's not on my plate right now," Krivsky said.
The option is for $13 million and can go to $16 million with incentives.
Here’s a look at the left fielder in the National League Central by stats and salary:
----------------- .Avg. HR RBI OBP Slg. OPS Salary
Adam Dunn Reds .262 30 73 .363 .551 .918 $10.5 million
Alfonzo Soriano Cubs .297 18 42 .336 .511 .848 $10 million
Carlos Lee Astros .298 23 90 .353 .531 .883 $11.5 million
Geoff Jenkins Brewers .269 14 45 .341 .483 .824 $7.3 million
Jason Bay Pirates .260 17 71 .335 .440 .775 $3.5 million
Chris Duncan Cardinals .285 20 59 .376 .540 .920 $400,000
(Sorry, I don't know how to lineup the columns). Lee and Soriano actually make a lot more in terms of average salary. Soriano signed for $136 million over eight years; Lee for for $100 million over six.
posted by John Fay at 5:44 PM
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Post a Comment*The smart thing to do would be to pick up Dunn's option for next season, wait for Jay Bruce to get some more time at Louisville, then when he's ready, send Dunn off to an AL team next July. I've said it often----trading Dunn now would be a huge mistake. We don't have anything that can replace his power in the line up at this time. Letting him simply go free agent is pointless, even if they get 2 or 3 compensation picks in the draft. It would be better next year to wait and see what's needed then make the trade once Bruce has shown he's ready
John - Doesn't it make sense to pick up the option then work a trade deal if possible?
It would be nice if the Reds had the cash to be able to afford Dunn but they aren't the Cubs.
Speaking of the Cubs, it's reported they released Wade Miller. Any interest on Reds part?
I'd like to see them use some of their Eric Milton money to nail this guy down long term. Then get a few more Keppinger's and Hamilton's to get on base in front of him. He bats far too often to empty bases.
I have a better point of comparison:
How much will Josh Hamilton and Jay Bruce cost?
If the Reds had a Chris Duncan down in AAA then that is the only way getting rid of Dunn makes sense. I'd rather have him than anyone else, and the only way to see if Jay Bruce and 12 million dollars for pitching help is a better investment than Adam Dunn is to get Bruce up here and see if he can help now. If not then getting rid of Dunn at the end of this season would be equivalent to waving the white flag for next year.
A more telling comparison might be runners left in scoring position. Dunn, I suspect, is "ahead" in that department.
thanks for pointing this out, John. It should be noted, though, that chris duncan is kind of an unfair comparison because he hasn't reached arbitration, so he's not a free agent-type player. He won't be for a while, actually. Also, Jason Bay signed a deal to avoid arbitration, but when he becomes a free agent after the 2009 season, he's going to cost a lot more than Dunn does now. You could look at some even more ludicrous deals like the one Garret Anderson has (4 years/$48M, career OPS of .796), or a first baseman like Richie Sexson ($14M a year for this year and next, career OPS of .862, OPS this year of .685). Reds fans who think Dunn is overpaid at 10.5 have no idea how much of a discount they're getting.
John,
Is anyone concerned about how left handed the Reds are - Dunn, Griffey, Hamilton, Votto, Bruce?
I would say the Reds could use the 2 additional picks if they let Dunn go but Stubbs is not looking like a good pick and the Twins have not been successful in the 1st round while Krivsky was around. What do you think?
The Duncan and Jenkins comparisons are a little unfair.. they rarely are in the lineup against lefties. Dunn has appeared in every game except one this year. I think the biggest thing the columnists, radio hosts, etc. and fans forget about Dunn is his Durability. With all of the Junior and Milton injuries, this is something I appreciate more than the average fan is that Dunn is there and playing everyday. Its nice having a big contract star you can count on being in the lineup on a daily basis.
What happens if we lose Dunn and Griffey or Hamilton gets hurt? Can't win if you can't score.
Also John, Dunn cannot be traded once his option is exercise. If he doesn't go thru the waiver deadline he cannot be traded until June 15th then he gets a list of 10 teams. You can get all the terms ar MLB4U.com
I think the durablity thing is a huge factor. I pointed out in my story that Dunn only missed five games in the last three years.
I asked Krivsky about that clause in Dunn's contract. He wouldn't go into it, but he hinted that some incorrect information is out there.
jesus... why does krivsky refuse to talk about everything? That has to be maddening for you, John.
Didn't take long for someone to mention Runners in scoring position without realizing that Dunn leads the Reds in RBI.
Was Griffey in scoring position on Saturday night when Dunn hit the game winner? No. Guess what? 2 runs scored.
Focus.
kyle west it sure is nice having a big contract star in there that cant field and strikes out more often than not
"What happens if we lose Dunn and Griffey or Hamilton gets hurt? Can't win if you can't score."
Our record is...and has been what with Griffey and Dunn... kylewest?
aside from Harang, Phillips, Hamilton, and keppinger...get rid of this entire team...
THEY STINK AND HAVE STUNK FOR QUITE SOME TIME
I've been a big Dunn detractor, but that quote from Mackainan at the end of your story John was pretty impressive. Made me stop and think a moment. I still think the Reds should get rid of Dunn mainly because this offense just doesn't click as is, but I'm not as down on him as I was.
How many RBI do you think Dunn has without homers?
When you see that number, when you see his number of LOBs, when you see how many solo and two-run homers he has, when you look at the 17 MLB RBI leaders tied or in front of him and see that only two have more homers, maybe you will see why, as Marty likes to say and GMs throughout baseball recognize . . .
"That ain't getting the job done."
I love how Reds fans jump on players of Jeff Keppinger's ilk after just over two weeks of production.
Believe me I'd be more than happy if Keppinger turned into a solid everyday player, but folks, he hasn't been around for more than a month and a certain cellar dwelling team (the Royals) already gave up on him.
Quit jumping the gun on this guy as a player to build your team around. We've heard the same things with the likes of Chris Stynes, Chris Denorfia, Eric Owens....etc.
We Cincinnatians sure love our scrappy, hard-nosed players.
You spend almost as much time politicking for Keppinger, a guy with three weeks of production, then you do for ripping a guy like Dunn, who has had four years of production.
It's maddening.
Anon 7:05 You'd have Keppinger as an untouchable? a guy with less than 500 MLB At Bats, that has hit for very little power in his career, has below average speed and defense?
Yeah Dunn Strikes out a lot. But guess what, he gets on base a lot too. More than the rest of the team(Except maybe Hatteberg).
The offense is not what has been wrong with this team. Last year it was the bullpen. This year it has been the bullpen and big inconsistencies from our starting pitching. Fact is the reason we have been losing since 2000 is pitching.
Our record is...and has been what with Griffey and Dunn...
That's a weak argument. The Pirates record is Jason Bay's fault. The Orioles woes fall on the shoulders of Miguel Tejada. Colorado can't make it to the playoffs because of Todd Helton. Who argues that their team is bad because of their best players?
How many RBI do you think Dunn has without homers?
How many good pitches does Dunn see with a runner on 2nd or 3rd and first base open? How many good pitches do you throw him if you're the opposing pitcher. It's unfortunate that's he's rarely had support behind him in the lineup. This year, the opposing pitcher can choose between pitching to Dunn or Encarnacion/Gonzalez.
Keppinger may be a short-term phenom, but he does highlight the weaknesses of Phillips and Freel - he gets on base. Freel is great to have on base, problem is he doesn't' get there that often. Phillips is a great prospect, but his OBP is low. Dunn's batting average with people on base is the same as without. When he makes contact, good things happen. It's a matter of getting them on.
Compare the stats of these three players at the same age in their careers (per 162 games played):
Player A
82 R, 29 HR, 83 RBI, .256 BA, .369 OBP
Player B
93 R, 33 HR, 94 RBI, .264 BA, .352 OBP
Player C
102 R, 40 HR, 94 RBI, .247 BA, .378 OBP
Player A and Player C each led their league in strikeouts three times before age 28. Player B led the league four times.
Now let's take a look at the remaining careers for both Player A and B:
Player A
101 R, 37 HR, 107 RBI, .267 BA .380 OBP
Player B
89 R, 32 HR, 98 RBI, .262 BA, .356 OBP
Both players became better and more powerful hitters after age 27, improving their batting average and HR totals while leading the league in strikeouts only once more each. (although Player B's stats are diminished by retiring six years too late).
Player A contributed great defense but benefitted by playing on better teams. He ended his career with more than 540 HRs, won 3 MVPs and is in the Hall of Fame.
Player B was a defensive liability but played on very good teams most of his career. He ended his career with more than 540 HRs, one MVP and is in the Hall of Fame.
Player C is 27 years old, has played on fairly bad teams his entire career and the majority of fans for his hometown team want him out of town.
Compare the stats of these three players at the same age in their careers (per 162 games played):
Player A
82 R, 29 HR, 83 RBI, .256 BA, .369 OBP
Player B
93 R, 33 HR, 94 RBI, .264 BA, .352 OBP
Player C
102 R, 40 HR, 94 RBI, .247 BA, .378 OBP
Player A and Player C each led their league in strikeouts three times before age 28. Player B led the league four times.
Now let's take a look at the remaining careers for both Player A and B:
Player A
101 R, 37 HR, 107 RBI, .267 BA .380 OBP
Player B
89 R, 32 HR, 98 RBI, .262 BA, .356 OBP
Both players became better and more powerful hitters after age 27, improving their batting average and HR totals while leading the league in strikeouts only once more each. (although Player B's stats are diminished by retiring six years too late).
Player A contributed great defense but benefitted by playing on better teams. He ended his career with more than 540 HRs, won 3 MVPs and is in the Hall of Fame.
Player B was a defensive liability but played on very good teams most of his career. He ended his career with more than 540 HRs, one MVP and is in the Hall of Fame.
Player C is 27 years old, has played on fairly bad teams his entire career and the majority of fans for his hometown team want him out of town.
Dunn is on pace to be a Hall of Famer by every measure there is. He's 27 this season and showing signs of improvement. Next year he enters his "prime" - the age at which ballplayers historically start to have their most success. Can anyone tell me Votto, Bruce or anyone else is going to be any better? Remember - Dunn had MUCH superior stats in the minors than these guys. You can stick you head in the sand and ignore the current economics of baseball but there are a dozen teams happy to pay Adam Dunn 13 million a year. I guess just because we are going to lose 90+ games a year with or without his is a reason to get rid of him?
Please don't make me go into Dunn's at-bat splits and show you the number of times he stands there looking at hittable strikes, because it's staggering.
Here's a non-shocker: Opposing teams ain't afraid to pitch to him. Striking out one-third of your ABs is only one piece of the evidence. A lot of players don't have people hitting behind them at 7-8 because, well, that's why they hit 7-8.
Here's a fun (or maybe not) project: Go into Dunn's game-by-game boxes and ABs, look at where he was pitched and what pitches he takes and what pitches he swings for, and you'll see the patterns.
It'll take a long time to go through these, but they are revealing, among other tendencies.
Every statistical expert out there tells us that batting average with runners in scoring position levels itself over time and that short-term aberrations have more to do with the size of the statistical sample. Dunn's career RISP average is in line with his career average. Everything else about how many LOBs or "useless" home runs or clutch hits it just PERCEPTION not supported by facts. The bottom line is Dunn's overall production speaks for itself every year. Despite being on a losing team and despite having no OBP guys in batting in front of him most of the time.
Dunn's not the problem. The economics of baseball is the problem. Are we to become the Montreal Expos? Just develop players and trade them or let them walk as free agents when they reach their big money years? So we develop Dunn and Votto and Bruce and Bailey - play them for five years and then go looking for the next cheaper and younger replacement?
guardado and majewski pitched last night. guess all those changes were wisps of smoke.... unless it is very soon.
I like Dunn, but he can't be 1/5 of your payroll. I havne't looked at it, but my guess is that Oakland and Minnesota (2 successful smaller market teams) do not have anyone that fit that description. Trade him, let him go, whatever...you get the 13 or 15 mil in return and put it towards pitching. Power is over-rated. Contact and defense is under-rated. The reds have led the league in homers several years and it hasn't gotten them anywhere.
It's imperative for the Reds to keep Dunn for the future. He has played for Cincinnati his entire career with impressive, and consistent power numbers. No player is perfect but Dunn is a Cincinnati typer player. Continuity, and team chemistry is important to provide a winning product on the field. Players like Dunn, Griffey Jr, Phillips, and Freel establish an indentity of the team. The revolving door of GM's, players, and coaches is a recipe for failure not success.
Other than his offensive production, Dunn provides a veteran quiet leadership, and precense in the clubhouse. The Reds front office need to understand the history of this city and the club, not historical history, but recent history of the team including former players that have come and gone and what has worked and hasn't worked in the past.
Dump Eric Milton, sign Dunn for a long term deal, and invest in Phillips. A solid core with supplemental players will put faith in the team from the fan base, and faith into the players from the organization.
It is frustrating for a fan of about 10 years to see such organizations such as the Brewers make strides to win. There is no excuse for the Reds to play the way they are.
Content players and fans make for a winnng product and atmosphere. The Reds need just one more quality starting pitcher, and a bullpen overhaul along with a professional hitter like Hatteberg or Phillips to get over the hump.
Finally, the Cincinnati fan base has a responsibilty to fill the ball park every night to support our team if strides are made to contend for the division.
Salary figures from ESPN.com:
Minnesota has $12 million to Hunter and $13 million to Santana.
Oakland did have Kendall at a little over $13 million before his trade to the Cubs.
Oakland also has Loaiza at $7.5 million, Chavez at $9.5 million, Piazza at $8.5 million and Kotsay at $8 million
whats the definition of "insanity"?
Doing the same thing over and over again and making the same mistakes/?
This team don't work with Dunn, Griffey etc..point end of point
Record is what?
And you babies cry because they might be traded.. Can we do any worse. Too funny
As we have done with Miley and Narron, we should also give Pete Makanin a contract extension
Loser mentality
40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 Runs...every year. Wouldn't it be great to have a player like that in Cincinnati? Stop picking it apart. The bottom line is 40 HR 100 RBI, 100 Runs. Wake up people. Make Dunn your number 2 hitter and leave him alone - great run production, won't hit into double plays and ruin innings, will get on base for cleanup hitters, will look at a lot of pitches. Get out of the box and think creatively. Just because a guy hits 40 HR does not mean he has to hit 3, 4, 5. Dunn should be hitting #2 and build your lineup around that. Who has fewer errors this year - Freel, Griffey, Hamilton, Dunn? Stop following the crowd, get out of the box, think creatively. Dunn stays, pay him Mr. Castellini.
I hope Dunn stays. But: If I was him I'd get out. His numbers are better than Griffey's after 5 years in the league except for strike outs. If I had it to do all over again I'd have found somebody to teach me how to hit a curve ball. Dunn needs to find somebody to improve his strike out to AB ratio. And, find somebody who will play him at 1st Base permanently where his glove is best. His game winning jack potential is high and he'll show up everyday which Woody Allen says is the key to success. I agree. A lot of teams are interested, btu if the latest trade rumors are any indication the Reds won't profit from for what they want in return. I say he stays and resign him for not much more and find a GD hitting coach!
So you want to trade Dunn while Griffey pops up with the bases loaded? I promise you I've never done that and neither has Dunn!
What's wrong with Tim Hudson for Ken Griffey and a prospect? He can't refuse it.
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