Dusty on Homer
Today is Homer Bailey's spring debut. He takes the mound at 1:05 p.m. vs. Tampa Bay at Ed Smith Stadium. There isn't quite the anticipation this year as there was last. I asked Dusty Baker if the fact that's there's less pressure and Bailey had a taste of the big leagues puts him in better position to succeed.
“I think he’s in better position because his mechanics are better, allowing him to throw better strikes," Baker said. "From what I hear, he was all arms and legs last year."
There were whispers last year that Bailey wasn't very coachable. Baker hasn't seen that.
“Sometimes you need to fail to really listen," Baker said. "He’s been all ears basically, which you like in a young player. But sometimes they have to fail before they listen.”
And apparently, it's working.
“Dick Pole told me his side (sessions) were very good," Baker said. "It’s getting better each side. I talked to him and he feels he’s improving, getting better, which is what you want to see.”
Bailey will be followed by Edinson Volquez. Should be interesting. They have similar arms and are competing for a spot in the rotation. Volquez may even have better stuff than Bailey.
"I like his arm," Baker said of Volquez. "I like his arm big time, nice loose arm. We just have to get him to trust all his pitches."
72 Comments:
I made it a point to see Bailey when he was in Dayton. What impressed me was his apparent ease in throwing heat. He didn't look like he was trying all that hard, but the ball got to the plate in a hurry. Maybe some minor league coaches have screwed up his mechanics. He didn't look all arms and legs to me.
Don't get your hopes up Red fans, In three stints with Texas over parts of three seasons, Edinson Volquez went 3-11 with a 7.20 ERA
Bailey looked much better at the end of the season last year
Yet, if he does not develop and use his curveball..you see a pitcher destined to be a middle reliever or closer. We think he would be a great closer..hes a tough dude.
As Brantley, Powers and others have said..his curveball aint "major league"
Blanton's line yesterday:
J Blanton (L,0-1)
IP H R ER HR BB K
2 8 6 6 0 3 1
sure nice to hear bailey's doing well :)
I for one do have my hopes up. Not many guys come up and put up outstanding stats right off the bat. Got to give them time. Plus Volquez had a decent run at the end of last season.
As far as Bailey concerned, I won't pass judgment until he has a least a full season under his belt. A healthy "groin" should translate into better pitching this year.
If that quote from Brantly is true it goes against every scouting report I have ever read about Bailey. BA says that his fastball and curveball are both "well above average major league pitches." Keith Law says: "His stuff remains outstanding: a 93-97 mph fastball and a power curveball with a sharp downward break. His changeup remains a show-me pitch, but the real obstacle for him is fastball command,". I really don't think Brantly knows what he is talking about.
With all due respect, Anonymous 919am, I'm gonna go ahead and get my hopes up.
Edinson Volquez is 25 years old. 25, dude. He's young and he's going to improve.
Most of the nearly meaningless W/L/ERA statistics you cite were amassed during Volquez's late season call-up/tryouts in 2005 and 2006 (facing American League lineups). In 2007 he was much better. Check out this game from just six months ago.
You may say I'm a dreamer...
This game.
My bad. THIS game.
Brad..
Homers issues had very little to do with any injury. Julie and I stood next to two scouts from 2 teams for 6 innings on top of Frontgate when Homer pitched last year.
Both commented on his lack of command for his breaking pitches..It was a well known fact that he lacked command of the aforementioned pitches prior to being called up
I would suggest to you that his pitching coach knows more than Keith Law .et al
9:19 Anon:
To paraphrase investment statements, "Past performance is not indicative of future results." Especially with young pitchers.
What he did in 2005 as a 21 year old going 0-4 with a 14.21 ERA has no bearing on what he's capable of today. Players grow, change, learn and improve. Last year he went 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 6 starts. If you're getting a 4.50 ERA from your #4 or #5 starter in this league you're doing better than average.
This comment has been removed by the author.
when you quote little stories like that how am I supposed to follow it up or even know you are telling the truth. I could just as easily say "well when I was at a game 7 scouts told me they would give up their first born child to have Bailey" Really, how am I supposed to argue with what you heard "someone" or "anyone" claiming to be a scout say?
Brad,, Homer had real problems making it through the 5th/6th inning and until he gets better command of his pitches..he will continue to have the same problems as a starting pitcher. Maybe he will be great this year..I hope so
Brantley, I believe is very smart and I would suggest to you that Ted Powers, Homers pitching coach, knows more than any sports writer living 100s of miles away
For those Reds experts who don't know any better, it is Ted Power NOT Ted Powers. Very annoying to a real Reds expert.
to anonymous 9:19
Dude why do you have to be so pessimistic? I don't understand why there is such a large percentage of reds fans like this. Just because the reds haven't done anything since 1995 doesn't mean you should be this way. It just ruins the blogs.
sorry the rant
Jack,
Unless you are referring to Brantley's completely stupid twin brother (who doesn't actually exist), then I can not take what you said seriously.
Tell Jack Cust that Homer's curveball isn't "major league". He will most likely laugh in your face. Yes, he may only be a career .247 hitter, but Homer completely dominated him in his third at bat during their June 19th game. If memory serves me correct (and it does, I have the at bat recorded because of the sheer overpowering Homer displayed) Homer started him out with 95 mph heat, following with one of the most overpowering curves I've seen from a Red's uniform. After another 95 mph fastball (for a ball) Homer finished him off with another overpowering curve.
Sure, that may only be a single example, but it's proof that Kid Texas (Homer) has a major league curve. That, and every scout has agreed.
Directed to those that care...
Frankly, I'm getting quite annoyed with those who seem to think Homer is a complete flop after just 45.1 innings. Yes, he did have command issues. I expected that coming from a 21 year old flamethrower (be it mechanics or nerves or a combination of both). And oh yea, he had no reliable reinforcements in the bullpen. I wouldn't be surprised if he felt he had to be near perfect every start. He only had 2 atrocious starts last year (Philadelphia start and St. Louis start). (I do not count his game against the Angels in which he got yanked and the bullpen...you know how that finishes. He pitched really well in that game in my opinion.)
Not to mention, he only gave up 2 homers in 31 innings at Great American (T)-Ball Park. Extrapolate that over a full season (I'll say 200 in) with roughly half at home and that's 6-8 homer runs surrendered at GABP. I'm no rocket scientist, but that's pretty good given the field dimensions.
Plus, he had a groin injury.
I have not yet given up on him.
Yeah Volquez has no chance. I mean when guys struggle in their early 20's they never turn it around..... oh wait look up north at some guy named Carmona. 24 yrs old- 1-10 5.42 ERA 25 yrs old- 19-8 3.06 ERA. I will hold my judgement on him until I see what he does this year.
On Bailey- I really think he will be fine. People are overreacting with this guy, he is 21 years old guys. He had groin issues let's wait to see what he does this year with a full year. I saw him pitch in Oakland last year and was personally pretty impressed. I saw Harang pitch numerous times in his early years with Oakland and there is no doubt that Bailey has better stuff than young Harang did. Nothing is a guarentee and I know this but I think Bailey will be a big part of this years Reds.
To clarify on my extremely rough extrapolations; if he pitched 200 innings, roughly half would be at home (100 or so) and apply his existing numbers (2 hr's in 31 innings) then he would give up between 6-8 homeruns. If my calculations are correct, (100 projected innings/31 innings actually pithced= 3.23. 3.23 x 2 hr= 6.46 projected home runs allowed)
Feel free to rip my numbers and persona to shreds.
I suspect that the Josh Hamilton trade will forever put to rest the debate over whether or not the Kearns, Lopez, Wagner trade for ziltch was the worst trade in history or the Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas deal. Watch Kearns and Hamilton this season. I expect big things from both.
A Reds outfield of Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce would be awesome.
I agree, it's much to early to judge Bailey or Volquez. Just look back at any great major league pitcher, and you'll see that they struggle in their first year or two. Obviously, some do well (Doc Gooden, Tim Lincecum) their first year, but even guys like Greg Maddux were horrible their first season in the show. Maddux turned out OK. Both Bailey and Volquez have electric arms, so that is more than most pitchers have to work with. Let's just hope they get their command down. When Jack says Homer doesn't have a major league curveball, he's incorrect. When Jack says Homer needs to learn to command his off-speed stuff better, he's absolutely correct. Let's just hope it happens sooner rather than later.
Cheviot, you forgot the hands-down worst trade in recent memory. The Twins traded AJ Pierzynski to the Giants for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. Wow.
Peter ( MR Redlegs)
I dont think many on here have said Homer is a flop..He needs some work and maturity
You would suggest to this board that because of one interaction with one hitter that Homer is a great pitcher with an overpowering curve ball. I would suggest to you that Homer Bailey could not make it past the 4th 5th or 6th inning all season long
Read your own conveyances..quit making excuses for players
Bob i would suggest to you that both Jeff Brantley and Marty know baseball better than any of us and Jeff stated that Homers curveball is not a "major league " pitch
Again..I will not debate this team with someone that lives 700 miles away and has not seen a live game in 20 years
Right now, I still gotta go with Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas but that was 40+ years ago.
BA probably has "JustRays" as the preseason WS Contenders. My God, talking about tauted superstars. Longoria (2 behind Bruce), Upton, Crawford (dude has skills), Willy Aybar, Bartlett, Jonny Gomes, then you got Kazmir as the Ace! Baseball America make the Rays look like the Red Sox or Yankees. Any trades should either pass through Tampa first or we should take any free agent money next year and hire the entire Rays scouting department.
Dayton Daily News
Jeff Brantley on Homer Bailey: He loves his curveball but right now its not a major league pitch
I wouldn't put so much emphasis on people playing and being around baseball automatically know baseball. I mean even our own manager has been quoted as saying that taking walks "clogs up the bases" and is not a good thing. That statement is a rediculous idea, and last I heard goes against every idea of baseball as we know it.
Brad I know you love Homer and get offended easily..yet I disagree
I would not put stock on the so called sports experts that live hundreds of miles away and do not follow our teams on a regular basis
Yet, I can say that people like Jeff, Marty, or his son etc..that actually see the Reds play everyday and have been following the game of baseball for many years.. can in fact make quite reliable evaluations. I think Jeff Brantley knows a little bit about pitching
Hopefully Homer Bailer will have a great year. Regardless Julie and I will be at GABP enjoying the games and stale pretzels
I may be wrong, but didn't Jeff Brantley say the Reds were better with Hopper in the lineup instead of Dunn? If he did, I don't think I'm gonna take his opinion on anything to heart.
hey I never said I love Homer Bailey, I'm just contending that he has two major pitches right now. And why can't we trust Keith Law as a talent evaluater? I mean, thats what he does. He travels around the country and evaluates players. He used to be an assistant GM at the Blue Jays. All due respect to Marty and Brantly, but let's be honest, Brantly is a color comentator. I would argue that somone who isn't closely tied to the reds organization would have more of an unbiased opinion about who has talent and will succede/ is ready to succede.
Like Brad, I have seen many reports, most attributed to scouts, that say Homer has a great curve ball. Now not having command of it (throwing it for strikes consistently) is a different issue entirely. Someone can have 98 mph heater and be wild; they still have a good fastball. I don't know where Brantley is coming from but maybe he's wrong.
And why does being optimistic equate to "making excuses for players"? Some of you act like all these guys are petulant little kids playing poorly on purpose rather than professional athletes competing at the highest level.
I know Jeff Brantley is a good announcer and used to be a major league pitcher-still, I've decided to put more credence in other baseball experts' opinions on Bailey's curveball rather than Brantley's at this time. I'm sorry if that makes anyone mad. I just don't think Jeff Brantley's opinion is the end-all. Plus, I watched Bailey pitch at a Durham Bulls game(Hamilton too-he crushed the first pitch he saw over the center field wall) and he mixed in his curveball a few times with some good results. Like I said before, he can't command it very well right now, but it's a tough pitch to hit.
All these young guys are no good!
Bring back Milton, Lohse, Claussen, Cormier, Ryan Franklin, and whoever else from recent years that made the Reds what they are today!
Lets make a deal, shall we?
If you wont say the prospects will be a bust, I wont say theyre hall of famers, OKAY?
-Kevin in Ft Myers
So Jack, since you go to games that makes you a better judge of a players potential?
I've been to every Reds home game since 1970, bu that doesn't qualify me as an expert on anything.
It makes me a huge Reds fan... a huge Reds fan that thinks Homer Baily has an excellent curveball.
So since I go to more games than you, and disagree with you, does that mean that you might mercifully STFU?
Another quote from Jeff Brantley: "The only way to beat the Yankees is to outscore them"*
*From "Baseball Tonight 9/13/06"
You must have me confused with someone who goes by the name of "Mr. Redleg". And I never directly pointed out any instances where someone on this blog said he was a flop. I've just been hearing alot of it in general.
No, I did not say Homer was a great pitcher (but in that one instance, he was). He has the potential to be. And in that one instance he displayed a great curveball.
And according to many a scout, he has continued to show he has a plus curve.
Rest assured, you are not debating with someone 700 miles away. I'm a 10 minute drive from the ballpark and frequent it very often during the season. Not that this should matter, but it appears to be that way with you.
Brad, are you sure Yogi didnt say that? LOL
-Kevin in FM
Jack, you're so dumb. With today's technology, it is easy to be a fan from hundreds of miles away. You don't have to see things in person to be an expert or have knowledge.
Hell, I wonder how we have Dinosaur experts and Historians. How did they witness first hand and live til today to tell us about it? BAFFLING!!!
If Jeff Brantley and Marty B and all of their ilk are so great at evaluating talent, why are they in the broadcast booth? Brantley is a very opinionated man, and quite frankly tends to go over the top. Hopper better for the lineup then Dunn? Hey they need a leadoff hitter. Bailey? Chances are based on what I've heard his curve is a big league pitch. Otherwise he wouldn't have been rated among the top 10 prospects over the last couple of years. Maybe he doesn't have big league control of it, but I'd bet good money it's a pretty good yakker.
Did I spell Baffling right? I hope so, I don't want Jack to have to correct me!!!
Let me get this out there. If you take Homers stats before the groin injury and after is return from the DL in September his ERA was 3.85. Here are a couple NL pitchers who had similar ERAs last year - Aaron Harang and Carlos Zambrano. I will predict Bailey will win at least 13 games this year.
Jack is a real Reds fan, He goes to alot of games and has first hand knowledge of all the Reds players.
Any person that goes to as many games as Jack IS an EXPERT...
..on the pretzels.
-Kevin in Ft Myers
You could of used "barfing" too.
I'm going to end this Brantly vs. Scouting report talk....Isn't it true that any pitch you can't command is not a Major League pitch? If you don't control your pitches you are going to have trouble in the bigs. Scouts look at potential. It is possible both are correct!!!
Just to throw some other guys first year stats out there:
Santana- 2-3 6.49 ERA 64K 54BB
Zambrano- 1-2 16.49 ERA 93K 63BB
Harang- 5-4 4.83 ERA 64K 45BB
Johnson- 7-9 4.40 ERA 104K 70BB
Halladay- 8-7 3.92 ERA 82K 79BB
Homer Bailey is what he is at this point in his career..a pitcher that cant get past the 6th inning
when that changes let me know
Jeff Brantley has more knowledge about pitching than all of us put together
certain people that say you get a better feel by watching a game on TV are the same people that cant afford to go to games or live too far away to do so
We are discussing the team that went 72-90 last year and has had 7 losing seasons in a row. Too funny
Oh, so if you can't afford to go to a game then you have a baseball IQ of nothing?
Let's stop attacking the person(s) and start attacking their arguments. I haven't heard one person say anything about you and your obsession with this Nurse Julie character. That was until now.
To a certain degree Jack in Blu Ash is correct although I am tired of hearing about the food at the park This franchise is one of the worst in baseball with a joke of a pitching staff.Yet to listen to the majority of you make excuses or quote obscure scouting reports on players you would think that this team goes to the playoffs every year. Homer Bailey may turn out to be a good pitcher he might not.Volquez may turn out to be a good pitcher he may not.Kevin in Ft Meyers is this all you do day in day out hang .It really is getting old man.Donkey i would not agree with you. I used to feel the same way you did until i started going to games,Depending upon your seats you get a much better feel by actually going to games.this is why scouts go to games
I can't wait until October. When Volquez (ERA around 4.00) has a good season and Bailey has a solid season maybe Cheviot SA and Jack will admit they are not experts (I know a farfetched dream).
How could you possibly rank the Lopez and Kearns for garbage deal with the Robinson for Pappas deal. Correct me if I am wrong but Lopez batted .240 last year and is projected to back up Christian Guzman at SS this year. Since Guzman is a below average player at best, that tells you what the Nationals think of Lopez. Kearns is in a battle with Dukes for playing time in RF. Lopez and Kearns could be two high priced backups. Good players don't sit on the pine for the Nationals. They aren't that good.
If you want a lopsided trade there is always Ruth for cash.
I know what happened!
Jack and his nurse "Jules" pulled a Tonya Harding on Gonzo so that Keppinger can play SS!
Jack, you sneaky dog!
You never did answer my question earlier though;
Since I've been to every home game since 1970, I've obviously seen more games than you, and know more than you.
Homer has a great curve, it's a plus pitch for him.
Now will you please STFU?
If Jeff Brantley had such good knowledge of pitching, why isn't he a pitching coach? He may know how he pitched, or what he would do in a situation, but he is not a talent evaluator, no more than you or I. And these are not obscure scouting reports. They are real, and done by major companies that are outside the realm of being controled by MLB or anyone associated with MLB.
Brad..I hope that Homer turns out to be a fine pitcher..
don't we all?
brad ..to be honest with ya I could care less..julie and i love going to ballgames and the ballpark is much more comfortable with less fans,,you can stretch out..no long lines.
Fsamaa
thats all you got brother what ifs and maybes..you do realize that? another apologist and excuse maker I see
so wait...you don't want the reds to be good so that no one comes to the ball park? So you arn't a fan? And if you arn't a fan why are you on this blog every day?
brad ..what have the reds done the past 7 years..lose..and yet you still support them and are a fan
julie and I really dont care either way..sports does not make us or break us..we just like going to the ballpark,
Brad I have as much right to be here as do you
I just find it interesting if you don't care so much why you go through the effort to comment on everything the reds do or don't do. Stay here as long as you want. It doesn't matter to me. I just find it odd.
brad we go to almost 40 games every year..we have earned the right to comment..I like the gang on this blog also
You haven't earned the right to do squat.
Unless you are a stockholder in the franchise, then you're no better than any of the people that choose to blog here.
The only thing you have on anybody else is that you're just more openly vain and obnoxious.
FSAMAAA, Lopez is listed as a back up second baseman for Washington. I think Marty said he was not a ML Shortstop, so he may be right there.
Jack, Where you watch the game from or listen to WLW makes zero difference. You go to 30 games. If someone watches 162 games using the ML Extra Innings, they could easily have better knowledge than you about the Reds. You are ignorant to claim better knowledge than someone you don't even know, but that is your deal. Mr. Redlegs could be who you say, who he says, or Timothy Kremcheck for all you know.
Using Brantley's comments, Harrang didn't have a ML Fastball his first year with the Reds, because he couldn't locate that pitch either.
Once Aaron started locating it, he became a #1 starter. Does that mean that he did not have a fastball when he came to the Reds? Nope. Just needed experience, which is the same with Homer.
Experience and a good catcher. Ross was compromised last year in his catching with a 200 average. Not an excuse, just a fact, he was pressing all year. LaRue would have helped our pitching last year, even hitting 194.
regan still making excuses
"ross was pressing'? the entire season? no he stunk
reagan why dont you ask John Fay the importance of going to games if you want to get a feel for players. Why do you think that scouts go to games.
At the ballpark..and if ya sit in decent seats you have a much better feel for the way pitchers pitch, fielders field, and hitters hit
Reagan ..you dont go to many games or cannot afford to thats your problem
reagan answer the following: the reds records was what last year?How have they done the past 7 years?
I dont always see eye to eye with Jack in Blue Ash Reaganspad but he is right if you sit in good seats along the first or 3rd baselines or behind home plate it is way better than watching on tv. You can even see the spin on the baseball when the pitchers throw the ball
Jack,
Since when is it a crime to not want to spend money on over priced tickets?
What's your problem?
God,
Why did the Reds sign Jeremy Affeldt?
Well, my child, the Red's signed Affeldt because they think he is going to be a reliable left-handed starting pitcher. They will sadly be disappointed to find out that he will not succeed in this role and insert him into the bullpen, where he will find much greater success.
jack, YOU HAVE NO FLIPPIN CLUE WHAT I CAN AFFORD OR NOT, NOR DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW MANY GAMES I GO TO. NONE. I HAVE NEVER USED IT AS A CRITERIA LIKE YOU DO.
SO MUCH FOR THE PERSONAL ATTACKS. WOW, I JUST CANNOT UNDERSTAND WHY PEOPLE WANT TO ATTACK YOU.
"Reagan ..you dont go to many games or cannot afford to thats your problem"
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
That was a low blow jack. You do not play devil's advocate. You are a pessimist. Some of us are optimists. That is where the difference is at. I'm not going to mock you and nurse julie, just as you should not mock reaganspad and whatever the heck he has, which I feel has no place on a baseball blog. Please you guys, try to keep it under control. I can only tolerate this incessant whining to a point, there are other places where people can go for Reds information.
Someone claims they've been to every home game since 1970???
37+ years of never missing a home game????
Oh come on. I love baseball but that's ridiculous.
And not credible.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Cool it on the personal stuff.
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