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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Saturday, April 26, 2008

Jocketty on Bailey

I asked Walt Jocketty before the game if the Reds would consider bringing Homer Bailey up as a reliever:

“I haven’t thought of him as anything other than a starter,” Jocketty said. “I haven’t really talked to anybody about that.”

Bailey is doing what he done the last three years: Dominating in the minors. He’s 2-1with a 1.95 ERA for Triple-A Louisville.

Jocketty brought up Adam Wainwright in St. Louis as a reliever. Wainwright went 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 61 games of relief in 2006. Last year, he was 14-12 with 3.70 ERA as a starter.


21 Comments:

at 11:17 PM OpenID PJFan821 said...

I tend to remember a lot of Corey Patterson bashers when he was batting in the .190s
Hes back up to 230...However, Dunn hes at .191
AWESOME!

 
at 11:21 PM Blogger Joe said...

I've beleived for some time that Belisle belongs in the bull pen. If he does not fit and perform there, release or trade him for whatever it will bring. Bailey, Thompson and hopefully a few more give the Reds options.

If things keep going the way they are currently, I am beginning to believe the Reds should assume the building mode. Clean house. Loose with the young players. Jockety should get it right this time.

A scrap it and rebuild strategy takes the pressure off the players, they can relax and learn with not pressure to win in 2008 or 2009.

That strategy takes the pressure off management. By admitting its' mistakes in holding this team up to be a winner. They've got a ready scape-goat in Krivsky, Dunn and Griffey.

That strategy takes the pressure of the fans. They can go about the summer checking the box scores and standings occassionaly, knowing it is a lost cause for the Reds.

Of course there are arguments against this strategy. This has been frustrating and depressing.

 
at 11:48 PM Blogger Johnnie Flea said...

Mike Lincoln, out of MLB since 2004, pitching this well, should get comeback player consideration if he stays healthy.

 
at 11:53 PM Blogger jnkclass said...

Griffey and Dunn are a combined 0 for 6 with 8 runners left on base. That's not gettin it done by your 3 and 5 hitters. Everyone else in the lineup has at least 1 hit.

 
at 11:56 PM Blogger Steve said...

The easy answer is to say let's dump Dunn and Griffey. I think this makes sense but now is not the time. Nobody is running away with the Division so no need to panic.

Besides. their trade value will go up much higher in late June or early July. Patience!

 
at 11:58 PM Blogger Don said...

Time for this organization to cut their ties with Belisle. This is a continuation of what we saw from this guy last year. He is a starting version of Todd Coffey- tears it up in the minors and continues to lay eggs in the bigs. They can continue to run him out there every five or six days, but he isn't going to drastically improve. His presence on the mound places a lot of pressure on an already weak offense.

 
at 12:31 AM Blogger Steve said...

Jocketty's first move should be to release Coffey. We've all seen enough.

 
at 1:22 AM Blogger Charlie said...

Here is my take on tonight's game>>>>>After the 4th inning, we need to give Keppinger a nickname, say: "2-fer". He's been good for two hits most nights. And we can give Dunn a nickname also: "O-fer". Dunn has now left 3 runners on in three innings and he's even given up a triple to LF which should be a big "NO-NO".

Belisle's fastball is being clock at only 88, his change is 84 and his curve is 72. After either a change-up or a curve ball, Bako has called for a fastball and the Gianta are sitting on it...Shame on Bako for being so predictable. Finally in the 5th inning, a slider followed by a curve (two slower pitches in a row for the first time tonight.

Dunn leaves another two runners on in the sixth. He's now stranded five for the game, and is still O-fer.

Much better game tonight from Belisle, he deserves this win.

Kudos for Baker so far tonight for taking out Dunn for defensive purposes and replacing him with Freel.

Keppinger, Phillips, and Encarnacion really picked it tonight and Kudos also to the pitchers for throwing lots of ground balls tonight.

When your numers 3,4, and 5 hitters leave 13 runners stranded out of the 24 runners we had on base tonight, that's not good. But for all the guys who played small ball tonight and tried to hit line drives and who hit behind runners, or bunted to move runners up...Kudos. Too bad Dunn and Griffey couldn't get in on the fun tonight. Oops, Griffey finally got a hit tonight, but only after the game had already been decided.

Lincoln mixed up his pitching speeds real well tonight but need to throw more strikes. But he did give us two good innings.

Affeldt did a nice job of mixing his speeds and pitches but also needs to throw more strikes. Thank goodness his walks and Lincolns didn't hurt us too much tonight.

Baker again makes another defensive move with Hairston for Griffey. Kudos there also. But then>>>> in comes Coffey and he gives up two doubles back to back and then a walk before Baker wakes up again and brings in Cordero to finish it out. He just needs more work to get sharper.

All in all...This one belongs to the Reds (who played small ball, who moved runners up, who threw lots of ground balls, and who fought hard to end the present losing streak)!

Congradulations, Reds!!!!!!!

 
at 1:24 AM Blogger Charlie said...

Here is my take on tonight's game>>>>>After the 4th inning, we need to give Keppinger a nickname, say: "2-fer". He's been good for two hits most nights. And we can give Dunn a nickname also: "O-fer". Dunn has now left 3 runners on in three innings and he's even given up a triple to LF which should be a big "NO-NO".

Belisle's fastball is being clock at only 88, his change is 84 and his curve is 72. After either a change-up or a curve ball, Bako has called for a fastball and the Gianta are sitting on it...Shame on Bako for being so predictable. Finally in the 5th inning, a slider followed by a curve (two slower pitches in a row for the first time tonight.

Dunn leaves another two runners on in the sixth. He's now stranded five for the game, and is still O-fer.

Much better game tonight from Belisle, he deserves this win.

Kudos for Baker so far tonight for taking out Dunn for defensive purposes and replacing him with Freel.

Keppinger, Phillips, and Encarnacion really picked it tonight and Kudos also to the pitchers for throwing lots of ground balls tonight.

When your numers 3,4, and 5 hitters leave 13 runners stranded out of the 24 runners we had on base tonight, that's not good. But for all the guys who played small ball tonight and tried to hit line drives and who hit behind runners, or bunted to move runners up...Kudos. Too bad Dunn and Griffey couldn't get in on the fun tonight. Oops, Griffey finally got a hit tonight, but only after the game had already been decided.

Lincoln mixed up his pitching speeds real well tonight but need to throw more strikes. But he did give us two good innings.

Affeldt did a nice job of mixing his speeds and pitches but also needs to throw more strikes. Thank goodness his walks and Lincolns didn't hurt us too much tonight.

Baker again makes another defensive move with Hairston for Griffey. Kudos there also. But then>>>> in comes Coffey and he gives up two doubles back to back and then a walk before Baker wakes up again and brings in Cordero to finish it out. He just needs more work to get sharper.

All in all...This one belongs to the Reds (who played small ball, who moved runners up, who threw lots of ground balls, and who fought hard to end the present losing streak)!

Congradulations, Reds!!!!!!!

 
at 1:57 AM Blogger capadgett said...

I went to the Bats game Friday night in Indy when Bailey pitched. He is not ready to come back up. His control is not great and gets him in lots of trouble especially if he were in the majors. I'm not sure what everyone else has seen but he also seems to have quite the attitude too. I think he needs to spend some more time in the minors working on his game and getting a level head, he's just not ready yet. Remember he is still quite young.

 
at 2:35 AM Blogger Zippy said...

I'll just keep saying it and saying it...

Dunn would be a valuable hitter at the TOP of the lineup. He's pretty much a liability in the middle of the lineup. Why-oh-why can't anyone in this organization notice this?

Today was a classic example. Three times he came to bat with RISP, and three times he failed to do anything productive. The one time he came to bat with the bases empty, he walked and eventually scored. It was his only productive at-bat.

Dunn's career statistics:

With bases empty
.251 avg/.523 slg

With runners on base
.243/.507

With RISP
.221/.462

With RISP and 2 out
.214/.415

Overwhelming evidence that he hits better in non-RBI situations. It just couldn't be more obvious.

But that's not all. Consider how he's hit in various spots in the batting order. His highest career batting average has been batting 2nd (.278, in 392 ABs), and his highest slugging percentage is batting leadoff (.589 in 56 ABs, which includes 7 HRs). His second highest slugging percentage (.554) is batting 2nd in the order.

And now the kicker:

Dunn has hit 1st or 2nd in 118 games. In those 118 games, he has 86 RBI! If he hit at that pace for 150 games, it would be the HIGHEST RBI TOTAL OF HIS CAREER.

Or, consider it this way: In the 118 games Dunn has hit 1st or 2nd, he's averaged .73 RBI per game. In the 316 games he's hit 5th, he's averaged .63 RBI per game. Plain and simple: he's more likely to drive in runs hitting 1st or 2nd than hitting 5th. Why? One reason is that he gets more ABs hitting 1st or 2nd. Another reason is that he doesn't walk as much (I'll spare you the stats, but it's true), presumably because he has better hitters following him, and he's obviously more likely to drive in runs when he gets pitches to hit.

How much more evidence will it take? Does the organization want to win, or do they just want to stubbornly cling to the fantasy that Dunn is most productive as a #5 hitter?

 
at 9:19 AM Blogger Joe said...

I'm with you Zippy on moving Dunn to the front of the line-up. We would them be complaining about his base clogging speed and lack of ability to take an extra base. It was suggested by someone else to him in the 9 hole with the pitcher hitting 8th. Same issue, lead feet on the basepaths.

 
at 11:00 AM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

.191 hitters bat 8th if they play at all.
St CSA

 
at 11:36 AM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

I told everyone last July that the Reds had ruined Homer Bailey. This is one of the times that I wish that I were wrong but its not likely.

This guy no longer has the blazing fastball that made him special. He was throwing 96-98 a year ago. The Reds know this. Why do you think he has gone from a can't miss #1 to trade bait? Perhaps he can become a run of the mill pitcher if he 'learns to pitch' but I don't believe that he will ever be a dominant major league winner. His power has diminished for whatever reason (mental, mechanics, physical, don't know) and I blame the Reds, of course. Perhaps he can find it again, but until he does, I don't see much help there.
St CSA



St CSA

 
at 11:42 AM Blogger Zippy said...

In the 118 games Dunn has hit 1st or 2nd, he's scored 95 runs. That's .805 runs per game. If he plays 155 games and scores at that rate, he'd have 125 runs for the season. In 2007, that would have tied him for 2nd in the national league, behind only Jimmy Rollins.

Compare Dunn's run scoring ability to the speedy Brandon Phillips, who's hit 1st or 2nd in 91 games and scored only 56 runs in those games. That's .62 runs per game. Or compare it to the speedy Ryan Freel, who's hit 1st or 2nd in 409 games, and scored 257 runs, which is .63 RPG. Or the speedy Norris Hopper, who's batted 1st or 2nd in 73 games and scored 41 runs, which is an alarmingly bad .56 RPG. In his time with the Reds, Patterson has hit leadoff in 17 games, and scored 11 runs. That's .61 runs per game.

Batting 1st or 2nd, Adam Dunn has been much more likely to score runs than speedy guys like Phillips, Freel, Patterson, and Hopper. Why? Because he gets on base more, and he hits more HRs. This isn't rocket science. It's just too bad the Reds organization can't seem to do the 5 minutes of homework it took me to come up with these stats. Apparently they've got more important things to spend time on, such as coming up with justifications for hitting Dunn 5th.

 
at 12:09 PM Blogger Red Faced said...

Zippy, at this stage I'd try anything to get more production out of Dunn so I'm with you. Let's bump him up to the 2 hole.

But the numbers you rattled off there only solidify my thoughts that Dunn should be traded. We need someone who can come through with the big hit for this club with runners on base. We've been missing that for 3 years now.

 
at 12:15 PM OpenID r2theoman said...

John,

I've been keeping track of Daryl Thompson's numbers this season and simply put, they are unreal. But my question is what kind of stuff is putting up the kind of numbers he's presentd? Hard thrower, crafty, a mix of the two?

 
at 1:43 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Thompson throws in the low to mid 90s. Good change-up.

So if Bailey is ruined, CSA, he showed retired right now? A week before he turns 22?

The Yankees took Andrew Brackman in the first round last year, gave him a major league contract. He's coming off elbow surgery and he's roughly the saem age as Bailey.

Bailey was 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in the major last year, pitching at 20. Harang never reached the majors until he was 22.

 
at 2:10 PM Blogger T-Mac said...

Wait a second Zip . . . I was told there would be no math on this blog (joke). I like your analysis and it makes one wonder why the Reds wouldn't experiment given the numbers.

I think JAB put it best, definition of insane is doing the same things over and over and expecting the same results.

Coffey anyone?

 
at 2:23 PM Blogger oldtimer said...

John, the way to go if you really believe in the bullpen then starter route as a viable option, is Jared Burton. He's young too, and has great stuff, which he can't always make best use of in just one or two innings. I'm on record lobbying for him in Belisle's place, give Belisle middel relief, let Homer go into Burton's role, and send Coffey down. If the Reds get hot and make a little run in August, Coffey may have straightened out enough to help. Odds are against it, but why not hang on to him till he's part of a trade throw in?

Dunn leading off is just too funny, Guy is slow, can't hit for average, strikes out a lot, and doesn't steal. Helllooo? Plus right now he's hitting below .200. Oh, but he walks a lot. And can you ask anybody in the Reds disorganization why in the world Hopper can't get a week or two of solid starts? As I've said, continually since last year, the guy makes things happen up top. Is Baker really this clueless?

Saw the lineup for today (sunday). Wow, Patterson AND Hairston...now there's a reason to find some hope for this season. Oh and while I'm at it, I'd consider kicking Baker upstairs and bringing back Pete M or someone else who actually got these misfits to play together a little bit. For all the money Bob has blown, he could get Pete for a reasonable price, and keep Baker as an office guy, thereby keeping losses at minimum.

In the meantime, it's gonna take a while to dig out from under the mess Krivsky left this team in,particularly in the contract department.

 
at 2:38 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Didn't say he should retire John, didn't say he would never make it back to the majors either. I said that I don't believe that he will ever be a dominant winner in the major leagues. Lots of those guys (see Bronson Arroyo) around making millions of dollars. Why would he retire?
St CSA

PS: Maybe I'm wrong about him, but I haven't seen anything since he was sent down last season to change my mind. Have you?

 
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