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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Sunday, April 27, 2008

Reds v. Giants

Jerry Hairston RF
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Brandon Phillips 2B
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Ryan Freel LF
Paul Bako C
Edison Volquez P

v. LHP Barry Zito

Dusty Baker on Junior Griffey and Adam Dunn being out of the lineup: "Griff needs it physically. He's been playing a lot. I've been seeing him committing kind of early on his swing. He hasn't played this much early in three years. He wants to play. Dunn needs mental day. Hopefully, this will get back on stage like it did Brandon (Phillips)."

Phillips has gone 3-for-7 with a homer and four RBI since not being in the linep on Friday.


31 Comments:

at 1:38 PM Blogger Ray Kinsella said...

Interesting lineup...no Dunn, no Griffey? Should we read anything in to this?

Also, I don't think winning last night cured any ills. This team still needs a major overhall.

 
at 1:41 PM Blogger Steve said...

No Griffey or Dunn...I like it! Paying The Dunn-er $13 mil and he'll end the month hitting below The Mendoza Line. We're all so proud!

Nice to see Dusty giving the nod to Bako over "I'll never hit my weight again" Ross.

 
at 1:44 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

The dinosaurs get the day off. Can't hurt much. Too bad we only have guys like Freel and Hairston to fill in for them. Along with Patterson, that makes for one hell of a potent outfield, chuckle. But then again it probably won't matter much with the squalling hog caller on the mound
St CSA

 
at 1:44 PM OpenID PJFan821 said...

Well for all of us that want Griffet and Dunn traded heres our chance at seeing the team without the two of them.
I dont know about benching both although both deserve to sit with their recent performances, paticularly Dung.

 
at 1:56 PM Blogger INDYREDFAN said...

i am really starting to get frustrated by Dusty Bakers lovefest with patterson. Give Hopper a shot.

 
at 2:13 PM Blogger Aaron in SC said...

This game today will tell the tale for our season...Zito has been getting hammered. However, the Reds keep making every left hander look like Sandy Koufax.

I am suprised to see Dusty keeping both Dunn and Griffey out as bad as Zito has been pitching, but after all we need more effort and contact.

TRADE DUNN AND HIS $13 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT! I would beg the Rangers to trade Salty for Dunn. We need a catcher (not saying that Salty is the answer, but he would be an upgrade on what we have)

Get rid of Coffey! Move Belise to the bullpen and call up Homer Bailey.

If the Reds are not committed to playing Bruce EVERYDAY then they need to leave him in AAA.

Go REDS!

 
at 2:15 PM Blogger Phill said...

ray, Dunn and Griffey have been looking pretty lost at the dish and then you add day game against a lefty. Hope they can come out strong against St. Louis.

 
at 2:16 PM Blogger Craig said...

Hairston and Patterson at the top of a major league lineup makes baby Jesus cry.

 
at 2:20 PM Blogger Michael said...

Can anyone figure out why Bill Bray is still in AAA while pitching so well (8.1 ip, 4 hits, 1ER, 3bb, 14ks) and Coffey is still here? Is Coffey out of options?

 
at 2:26 PM Blogger tom dunne said...

All I read into it is that it's the last game in a road series and Baker likes to rest his vets on get-away day. It's hard work being Adam Dunn.

An outfield trio of Corey Patterson, Jerry Hairston and Ryan Freel. Good grief. Even Zito should be able to handle that Murderer's Row.

 
at 2:27 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Opps, the squalling hog caller is obviously Arroyo. Reds do stand a chance with Volquez pitching.
ST CSA

 
at 2:33 PM Blogger Steve said...

I am really starting to get frustrated by Dusty Bakers lovefest with patterson. Give Hopper a shot....

Hopper's on the DL...which I'm sure is Dusty's fault too! Sheesh.

 
at 2:38 PM Blogger wh0dey08 said...

Why is Patterson still starting? I think its time to try Bruce out. Trade Griffey and Dunn. Put Hopper in he is always batting .300 and thats better than .192 with 20k's

 
at 2:48 PM Blogger INDYREDFAN said...

my bad i forgot Hopper got hurt

 
at 2:53 PM Blogger kingseyeland said...

That, friends, is the lineup of a last place team.

Didn't Votto play LF in the minors? Why not spell Dunn with Votto and start Hatteberg? If it's a L/R thing, then pull Patterson, stick Freel or Hairston in CF, and go from there.

Or, y'know, stop fooling around and call up Bruce.

 
at 2:56 PM Blogger Eric said...

I don't think it's wise to take both Dunn and Griffey out on the same day, even against a lefty. Zito sucks, so hopefully the team can overcome the lack of power in this lineup. Every game that I see Patterson in the lineup I get mad.

I thought Griffey had played in April over the last couple of years. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Dusty is. This team can turn it around if Patterson and Coffey are gone, and Bruce and Bailey are up.

Also, Freel shouldn't be allowed to steal anymore. Arroyo is also a huge concern. What's with all the baserunning blunders. Usually we get some hope in April and May before the team stinks this bad. So sick of losing every year and terrible fundamentals every year as well!

 
at 2:57 PM Blogger HoosierVirg said...

The Pirates just release Matt Morris and are eating his $10 million contract, kind of puts the small contracts we are eating in perspective. I notice the Dumatrait (0-1, 3.92 ERA), is taking his place in the rotation.

 
at 2:57 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

This lineup looks like Dusty is trying to get Zito back on track for his old buddies.

Adam Dunn is making $13mil to hit home runs and drive in runs not stand up there and look for walks. If the Reds needed someone to bat second and look for walks they could pay a midget (somebody tried that once, one of you stat guys could look up the results for me). I am one of the lazy fans.
St CSA

 
at 3:13 PM Blogger John Fay said...

The lineup today points to the lack of right-hander bat with some pop on the bench. If Jorge Cantu or Craig Wilson or Andy Phillips is on the team, they play left or first today.

RHs have .394 OB% vs. Zito. LHs have a .278 OB%

Hairstoon is 7-for-19 off him. Patterson is 2-for-6.
Dunn is 0-for-5.

 
at 3:23 PM Blogger sabr_blogger said...

Patterson, low OBP and all, is still the best CF the Reds have if Bruce is in AAA (and Bruce long term is a RF). The point is just that Patterson is the last guy you want leading off. He should play, but hit 7th or 8th. Have someone like Keppinger or Phillips leading off. Votto third, Dunn fourth, Griffey fifth works just fine. The Reds can score some runs that way.

 
at 3:25 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

QUOTE JOHN FAY:
"The lineup today points to the lack of right-hander bat with some pop on the bench. If Jorge Cantu or Craig Wilson or Andy Phillips is on the team, they play left or first today."

You have never made a more intelligent comment. One of the biggest problems with this roster. Thanks to The Amazing Krivsky.
St CSA

 
at 3:35 PM Blogger kingseyeland said...

I'd bet good money that Morris ends up back in STL and returns to form. The guy's only 33.

I mean, if Lohse can get his act together there, anybody can.

 
at 3:36 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Sabr_blogger: What's the sabr take on putting Hairston in leadoff based on his numbers vs. Zito. .478 OBP, .632 Slugging?

Should a manager do that based on 19 at-bats?

 
at 3:38 PM Blogger Ray Kinsella said...

From Wikipedia -
Eddie Gaedel entered the game between the Browns and Detroit Tigers as a pinch-hitter for leadoff batter Frank Saucier. Immediately, umpire Ed Hurley called for Browns manager Zack Taylor. Veeck and Taylor had the foresight to have a copy of Gaedel's contract on hand, as well as a copy of the Browns' active roster, which had room for Gaedel's addition.

The contract had been filed late in the day on Friday, August 17. Veeck knew the league office would summarily approve the contract upon receipt, and that it would not be scrutinized until Monday, August 20. Upon reading the contract, Hurley motioned for Gaedel to take his place in the batter's box. (As a result of Gaedel's appearance, all contracts must now be approved by the Commissioner of Baseball before a player can appear in a game.) The change to that day's St. Louis Browns scorecard, listing Gaedel, went unnoticed by everyone except Harry Mitauer, a writer for the St. Louis Globe-Democrat. Mitauer's inquiry was shunted aside by the Browns' publicity man.

Eddie Gaedel was under strict orders not to attempt to move the bat off his shoulder. When Gaedel had hinted to Veeck that he might be tempted to swing at a pitch, the owner promised to bring a rifle to the game and shoot him if he tried. Tigers catcher Bob Swift offered his pitcher a piece of strategy: "Keep it low."

With Bob Cain on the mound - laughing at the absurdity that he actually had to pitch to Gaedel - and Swift catching on his knees, Gaedel crouched with bat in hand. Cain delivered four consecutive balls, all high. Gaedel took his base (stopping twice during his trot to bow to the crowd) and was replaced by pinch-runner Jim Delsing. The fans gave Gaedel a standing ovation.

Maybe the Reds should sign "Mini-me" to a one day contract.

 
at 3:59 PM Blogger Ray Kinsella said...

More on Gaedel - yes, I have nothing better to do!! LOL

Edward Carl "Eddie" Gaedel (June 8, 1925 – June 18, 1961), born in Chicago, Illinois, was an American dwarf who became famous for participating in a Major League Baseball game.

Gaedel gained immortality in the second game of a doubleheader on Sunday, August 19, 1951. Weighing just 65 pounds (29.5 kg), and 3 feet 7 inches (1.09 m) tall, he became the shortest player in the history of the major leagues. He stood 3 feet 4 inches (1.02 m) shorter than Jon Rauch, whose height of 6'11" (2.11 m) made him the tallest person to play in a Major League Game. He was secretly signed by the St. Louis Browns and put in uniform (complete with number "⅛" on the back) as a publicity stunt by maverick Browns owner and showman Bill Veeck.

Gaedel popped out of a papier-mache cake between games of a doubleheader to celebrate the American League's 50th anniversary, and as a Falstaff Brewery promotion. Falstaff, and the fans, had been promised a "festival of surprises" by Veeck. Before the second game got underway, the press agreed that the "midget-in-a-cake" appearance had not been up to Veeck's usual promotional standard. Falstaff personnel, who had been promised national publicity for their participation, were particularly dissatisfied. Keeping the surprise he had in store for the second game to himself, Veeck just meekly apologized.

 
at 4:01 PM Blogger redfuture said...

The amazing thing is that if told prior to the season that 3 of every 5 starts would be excellent, that the bullpen would be this good and that the primary catcher would be hitting around .320 and playing great defense you'd think they'd be in 1st place. That's how terrible Dunn and Griff have been!

 
at 4:14 PM Blogger robmadden1 said...

I found out why the games are on delay on 700 WLW (non xm or internet) from a person that works thier. The Reds ordered this. I hope it was not from Marty's comentes about the Cubs. The delay is about 30 seconds If it was about mart's comment thenm they can now sensor him so we dont hear anything bad come out of him or even Thome and Jeff. I can't stand the Delay when I am atthe ballpark watchig the game live And see the play then 30 seconds later hear it on the radio. I dont mind the delay on tv that espected but. Not when Directv used to have a huge delay and is now ahead of 700 WLW.;. Can you find out why the Reds ordered the delay of the games on the radio.

 
at 4:29 PM Blogger tom dunne said...

Silly me - never underestimate Barry Zito. OF COURSE this Reds lineup was able to bat around in the first inning...

 
at 4:33 PM Blogger redfuture said...

Isn't it tempting to push Volquez's start to tomorrow at St. Louis and pitch Fogg and Arroyo today after getting 6 runs in the top half?

 
at 4:49 PM Blogger sabr_blogger said...

"What's the sabr take on putting Hairston in leadoff based on his numbers vs. Zito. .478 OBP, .632 Slugging? Should a manager do that based on 19 at-bats?"

So glad you asked, John! Off the cuff, managers fall for this stuff far too much. The way a sabermetrician would evaluate Dusty's thinking is to test these numbers against the Binomial Distribution. You would like to know what percentage of the time a player with a .326 lifetime OBP (Hairston) would register a .478 (or better) OBP against a pitcher purely by chance given 19 ABs. I just cranked that out in Excel, and... the answer is 6% of the time. The equivalent for his SLG numbers (.632 vs Zito and .359 lifetime) is a slightly more impressive 0.4%.

While both those numbers actually sound good (ie, low "chance" numbers means more likely that *something systematic* is going on there instead), you have to consider that Hairston probably has 19 (or more) ABs against quite a few major league pitchers. So we have what statisticians term a "multiple tests" issue at work. If I throw out a guess that it's 100 pitchers (he's got 2400 lifetime ABs), then you would expect simply by chance that Hairston would be getting on base that well against 6 pitchers and slugging that well against 1 (rounding up to the nearest whole number) - Zito's the lucky man apparently. And these successes would be purely due to random variation, and not some underlying tendency to hit the guy well.

A better way to pick these matchups would be if we had data that Hairston "hits X against lefties with predominantly breaking pitch arsenals (like Zito)", since those sample sizes would be more in the neighborhood of several hundred PAs.

All of that said, it's not the most senseless thing Dusty's ever done (given that that's a rich cornucopia to choose from). And we have to keep in mind that we are not talking about purely independent event here (as for example coin flips tend to be). Baseball being a heavily psychological arena, if you're sending a hitter up to the plate loaded with (false, but helpful) misconceptions that he "has the pitcher's number", it can only give him a confidence advantage (I would think - or, does it make him overconfident and cause him to swing at bad pitches? hmm...). The point being though that it is unlikely FROM JUST THIS INFO (his career #s vs Zito) that he has ANY better chance against him than against any other pitcher, relative to his teammates (by that I mean that any of the Reds should have fun against Zito the way he's going).

Hope that made sense.

 
at 6:45 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

The lineup today points to the lack of right-hander bat with some pop on the bench. If Jorge Cantu or Craig Wilson or Andy Phillips is on the team, they play left or first today

Votto is a better hitter from the left side against a lefty than any of those guys are from the right side. All of those guys stink.

 
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