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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Sunday, July 22, 2007

Moves coming?

I expect the Reds will make a couple of moves today. Get the old Louisville bullpen shuffle going.

Todd Coffey and Kirk Saarloos out, Bill Bray and Gary Majewski or Bill Bray in, perhaps? I'm just guessing.

And if you thought Kyle Lohse has lost all trade value, consider this: Lohse's ERA (4.71) is lower than three of the four starters Milwaukee will run out against the Reds in the upcoming series. Chris Capuano comes in at 4.96, Jeff Suppan at 4.92, and Dave Bush at 4.83.

A better bullpen and offense will help your record. Lohse is 5-12. Suppan and Bush are 8-8. Capuano is 5-6.


at 5:42 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

we know the pitching stinks but what about the constant inability to hit with men on bases..?

this problem is just as bad and may be causing the other issues


at 6:45 PM Blogger Don said...

Saarloos hasn't even mastered AAA hitters yet. He had an ERA of 4.30 with the Bats. He seemed to have a chip on his shoulder when he was sent down, then when he is brought back up he bombs. He is useless to this organization and should be DFAd. He can take his cheese and attitude somewhere else.

If Coffey is sent down, I am sure he will pitch lights out. Dude can sit batters down left and right in AAA, but implodes in the bigs. Hard to figure.

at 7:03 PM Blogger anthony said...

Hey John: Good notes. I agree about Lohse's W-L record being an unreliable index of his marketability -- of the 90 MLB starters with 100+ IP, Lohse has the third worst run support (3.50).

Are you hearing more buzz about mgmt's commitment to trading Lohse, or is it mere coincidence that your notes on his numbers appear in a post entitled "Moves Coming"?

at 7:04 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

For everyone's sake, I hope you're right about moves coming. But moves for moves sake won't help. The Reds' needs are fairly obvious. They desperately need more power in the pen. Jared Burton has pitched exceptionally well of late, but one power arm won't cut it. Bailey can be another power arm in the pen. While he hasn't shown the 97-98 mile fastball as a starter than he purportedly showed in the minors, he can likely amp his fastball a few mph if he's only asked to go one or two innings. While he has been groomed his entire career to be a starter, Bailey could be Don Gullett, Jr. for a few years until Krivsky (or more likely Walt Jocketty, who I see replacing Krivsky at the end of the year) changes out the sorry lot in the bullpen. Stanton has to be designated for assignment. He has no velocity, and no "out" pitch. He's simply taking up a valuable roster spot. Ross and Moeller should also be DFR. Both add nothing of any real value to the team. I would trade Dunn, Weathers and Conine to Atlanta for Saltalomocchia. This would give the Reds a catcher for the next 10 years, and free up significant dollars for free agent signings in the offseason. If Atlanta wouldn't take this package, I offer Griffey rather than Dunn, and still toss in Weathers and Conine. Irrespective of whether the Reds trade Dunn or Griffey, they would be shipping out a defensive liability and freeing up salary dollars that could be committed to free agent signings. I'd take Torii Hunter over Junior any day. Unlike Junior, Hunter is still a great CF, still has good wheels, still hustles, and has far more charisma than Junior. The other thing that's painfully obvious is that the Reds have very few guys who hit well with RISP. Instead, the roster is stocked with feast or famine guys like Dunn, Ross, Junior, and Gonzo. These are not the guys you win championships with. We need to build around guys who are 275 to 300 hitters who don't strike out a lot, work pitchers deep into the count, can move runners over, and know how to bunt. The argument for Dunn and Griffey is that home run hitters put fans in the seats. That may be true in some towns, but Cincinnati is a town with a winning tradition. Yankees aside, how many cities can say they've won the World Series three times in the last 30 years? Cincinnatians want wins, not a bunch of guys like Ross, who bat a buck ninety all year, can't bunt, and have no clue when it comes to the nuances of the game. Sadly, this team reminds me of GABP. Second rate.

at 7:08 PM Anonymous Justin Fernandez said...

Coffey down and Majewski up!

Wow! Now the National League had better quake in fear!

(fear from laughing so hard in the on-deck circle that ab muscles are pulled).

at 7:40 PM Blogger Taylor said...

Nice point about Lohse. His pitching dominance is just slightly below what Aaron Harang is pitching at (using Bill James' Game Score formula). I would really like to see what Paul DePodesta could do for this organization. He deserves a better fate than what he got from the Dodgers ownership. DePodesta basically built what the Dodgers have now and that is a winning ball club with a lot of young talent.

If you have poor talent, you get poor talent in return for any trades and thus begins the cycle the Reds have been in for many years.

at 9:08 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lohse and Belilse probably are not far off from league average when it comes to 4 and 5 starters. They're serviceable. The question really is, who's the #3? The Reds really need to sign one (it's not Bailey yet).

at 10:49 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd ship Coffey out for a pack of big league chew, a rosen bag, and hope his next team has a moving sidewalk from the pen to the mound so he doesnt feel the need to sprint into the game

at 11:32 PM Blogger Gene in WV said...

I believe you are correct in your assesment. You are certainly on the money with the bullpen statement.

With all the problems the Reds have had, take away the terrible pen, and we are right in the middle of the Central race. I never remember the pen performing this bad-never. It has drained any momenteum, energy, this team has ever even come close to achieving.

at 11:38 PM Blogger Gene in WV said...

I definitely agree with your points.

With all the problems the Reds have had this year, if we exchange our pen for just a decent one, we are right in the middle of the Central race.

I never remember the pen being this bad-never. They have sucked all the energy, momentum, that has ever surfaced. The one consistent defiency has been the pen.

No one can win until the pen is fixed. Pitchers can't go 8 innings every night, hitters won't always hit in the clutch. The pen HAS to come through-at least a little.

at 1:40 AM Anonymous redifil said...

Hope you're right about Coffey and (creamed) Saarloos. I sy keep shufflin' til you get it right – or at least righter.
Also hope they can get a good deal for Lohse. I'd rather have a good prospect than Mr. Inconsistent.
(Suggested headline for when he is dealt: Losing Lohse should lessen losses)

at 1:43 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Brad Salmon should be brought back up before Gary Majewski.

at 5:20 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

To All Concerned,

Why are you wasting your time analyzing individual moves and the potential that such player movement would have.. They all stink pretty much no matter what is done it will have no impact at this point in time.

Regardless..most of your are are still neglecting to address one other problem that is perhaps even far more serious than our bullpen.. that being this teams inability to hit with men on base.

This team chemistry is all wrong...the makeup of this team is all wrong

From top to bottom, there have to be some significant changes.

What scares me the most gang ..and as it should you... is Waynes inability to accurately determine talent. Asisde from a couple of decent moves, its a been a mess

One bright spot though.. I like this Keppinger fellow..fun to watch him play

at 8:12 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree Salmon should be brought up before Majewski. Salmon would give Miley, Jr. another power arm. Majewski doesn't seem like he's over what ever's ailing him.

at 9:04 AM Anonymous JP said...

I think Saarloos is the problem!

at 11:46 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Stanton has had a fine career which looks like it is over. He is fat and very inconsistant,,,,,a bad signing as it turns out. We should only have on the current roster pitchers who are considered possible help for next season.

at 12:52 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Good line, JP. I just got back from Florida (had to think of where we were -- hazard of a three-city orad trip).

No word on the Reds doing anything, so far.

at 1:37 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen what Salmon has done since his return from the big leagues? He has been horrible. He's so confused about how to pitch right now.

My bigger question is why keep running the same crap back and forth? Lets try and give some new pitchers a chance to see what they can do. (We may be suprised instead of disappointed)

at 1:41 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

love the fact that everyone seems so concerned with statistics of all sorts

I know that dealing with the truth is sometimes very hard..and I too am an avid reds fan... but fact is fact..

This team is terrible

You all are focusing on the bullpen and that certainly is a major issue. But, aside from Harrang..and maybe Livingston and Arroyo to a certain degree , we are critically thin at starting pitching

The inability to hit with runners on base has been an issue now since last May and needs to finally be addressed

Worse yet, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news...how many of you think that we will be able to get a top notch manager as long as Wayne Krivsky is the GM?

Of course, Castellini is not a fool and perhaps he will address this issue

And for those of you..including John whom I deeply respect, that would suggest on occasion that we "are close to being a good club"

God bless ya. Put a team like the Marlins (payroll what 30 mill? ) in GAB and average attendance would jump 7-10k a game. It would be a blast.

And a blast this city truly deserves after so many abhhorable yearsy

at 2:47 PM Blogger boobs said...

i hope it's bray and bray

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