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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Friday, May 2, 2008

Reds v. Braves lineup, notes

Corey Patterson cf
Jeff Keppinger ss
Ken Griffey Jr. rf
Brandon Phillips 2b
Adam Dunn lf
Edwin Encarnacion 3b
Scott Hatteberg 1b
Paul Bako c
Edinson Volquez p

v. RH Tim Hudson

--Dusty Baker said Ryan Freel will start the next two days.

"It boils down to the big boys in the middle of the lineup," Baker said. "We've got to get one of them hot. Give me an MVP for a week."

--Baker said he's conisdered moving Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto up because of the struggles of Giffey and Dunn.

"Don't think there's a combination I haven't thought about," he said.

--Mario Soto had his first session with Johnny Cueto. "We want to get him back to the way he was throwing," Soto said. "I saw him on TV he's throwing completely differently than he did in the minors and his first couple of outings." Soto said he tweaked the grip on the Soto's change-up.


at 5:56 PM Blogger Jaybee said...

To watch or not to watch? That is the question.

Let me see: Patterson, Griffey, Dunn, Hatteberg - says don't watch.

Volquez - says watch.

Maybe I'll give it a couple of innings and see. I'm really starting to lose my enthusiasm. But, we shall see.

at 5:58 PM Blogger doomgoblin said...

thing is, it's actually scarier to me that Dusty keeps talking about how many different lineups he's considered, and that what we've seen are the results. makes it seem like he just doesn't get it.

how can you keep batting patterson leadoff, right? it's insane, just insane. his .280 OBP is only a little below his career .297. You'd think sometime in all this consideration Dusty would have realized that it makes no sense to hit him there.

it's been said on this blog before, but i'll repeat it because it makes so much sense:

bat kepps leadoff and dunn second. kepps will see more pitches and get on base more often. Dunn has a great OBP, and hitting infront of the heart of the order rather than behind it he'll see more strikes. saw this at redreporter http://www.redreporter.com/2008/4/30/470357/what-are-they-swinging-at

it's some data on what pitches the reds are swinging at and dunn is near the bottom of the league in percent strikes that he sees.

at 6:00 PM Blogger russ said...

Have you thought about NOT-Corey Patterson hitting leadoff? How 'bout that one? Who could do worse?

at 6:01 PM Blogger Scott said...

I'm at the point where I get really disappointed when Votto isn't in the lineup. But with Volquez on the mound, we should get a bunch of runs anyway. Go Voltron! Go Reds!!!

at 6:08 PM Blogger jeff said...

There is no reason that Votto shouldn't be in the lineup, especially with the day off yesterday. Are they trying to showcase Hatteberg for a trade? I love the guy, he's a true baseball player, but this team has no more need for him. Let's get something for him.

at 6:11 PM Blogger Craig said...

Corey Patterson is a black hole at the top of this lineup.

at 6:16 PM Blogger Hip Happenin' Hally said...

Why on earth is Affeldt still in the bullpen? He's a lefty that throws in the mid to upper 90's. How many lefties in all of the MLB can hit his speeds? Maybe four or five total. A lefty that can throw hard (above 91-92 mph) is one of the rarest things in the majors, and when it's combined with the killer curve that Affeldt has, there's no question he should be starting. We have no lefty starters. How can Dusty not see this?

at 6:25 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

Reds risk getting swept this series unless they can win tonight. With Belisle and Arroyo up next, you can mark those two in the L column.

at 6:28 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

John Fay,
How about some insider information.
Who really hired Baker? Was this a Krivsky guy or did Castellini do this to us? On that note, do you think it would be a possibility that Castellini would eat Baker's contract. I wouldn't think so, but this guy being so stubborn with the Patterson nonsense is bordering on insane. Is their perhaps an insanity clause in his contract?

at 6:35 PM Blogger Geoff said...

I would guess Krivsky had been fielding offers for Hatteberg but things are on hold with the changeover to Jocketty. What else could it be? No way they're keeping him on purpose. Maybe they're just asking for too much in return.

at 6:43 PM OpenID alphatheta678 said...

"Who could do worse?"

At this point, just about anybody. I think we could probably run one of our pitchers out there batting leadoff, and he'd end up with about a .280 OBP for 30 or so games.

at 6:50 PM Blogger CoachD178 said...

I've always been a Dusty fan but his lineups are leaving me very frustrated. I'm not saying Ryan Freel is the answer for the Reds, but we definitely know it isn't Corey Patterson. When you consider how hot he started the first week it makes his current numbers even scarier.

Also, how do you not have Joey Votto in the lineup? I love Scott Hatteberg, but why not keep Votto in the lineup? The next time he double switches and takes Votto out of the lineup I'm going to throw up!

at 6:55 PM Blogger Zippy said...

Hmmmm... According to the analysis doom linked us to, it appears Dunn isn't seeing very many good pitches to hit. Now where have I heard THAT before? I'm sure he'd see more good pitches hitting at the top of the order, but I guess we'll never know.

Good ol' Dusty. He's able to see things that us non-players just aren't able to see. For instance, he apparently sees Patterson getting on base a lot, when the rest of us see exactly the opposite. And he sees Votto as a part-time player, when the rest of us would foolishly play him every day. Good ol' Dusty.

at 6:56 PM Blogger Brick said...

I find it curious that Baker would start Patterson in the lead-off spot yet make it a point to say that Freel would start the next two days. It's almost like he's aware he shouldn't be starting Patterson over Freel and trying to calm everyone down with the Freel starting announcement.

at 6:57 PM Blogger Steve said...

Guess I'm in the minority but having Patterson lead off doesn't bother me. Yes, I think Freel should be in there too but why not in LF? Dunn isn't doing anything.

Hatty's being showcased plus needs AB's so he's fine. Here's an idea: lineup juggle: Freel, Kepp, Hatty, EE, Bako in the first five spots. Follow with Griffey, Phillips, Patterson, Volquez (8 hole) then Dunn 9th! Let the big-fella take his walks followed by hot hitting Freel leading off. Can't hurt!

Personally, I'd rather see Votto in RF, Bruce in Center with Freel in LF but that's another story for another day.

at 7:01 PM Blogger Chris Sabo said...

I hope all you Dunn and Griffey haters realize...that if the Reds trade both Dunn and Griffey.......that Sure, Jay Bruce will be called up....but the reds, if at that time he's still available.....will sign....

Barry Bonds.

I dont know why, but some people around baseball think the city of Cincinnati might be open to the idea of allowing a cheater to be a part of its team.

at 7:02 PM Blogger Chris Sabo said...


at 7:04 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

He's gonna move Votto up, because apparently he's been producing, but tonight he's gonna sit. Yeah! That makes sense. As long as he keeps batting Patterson 1st, then he's just as guilty as the 3,4,5 hitters. Too bad we can't get anyone to ask him about it. There are ways to do that without questioning the manager. How about "Corey Patterson doesn't have a good track record when it comes to leading off and getting on base. Is that a problem for this team?"

at 7:04 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Krivsky said that Baker was his recommendation to Castellini.

Anyone want to guess who leads the Reds in on-base percentage?

at 7:09 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

My guess would be Dunn leading in OBP with all the walks. Also means he makes outs per plate appearance less than anyone else on the team. Yeah, he's at .391. One thing about this guy that people just don't get.

at 7:10 PM Blogger Zippy said...


What's your definition of "doing anything"? Dunn has played in one more game than Patterson, and he's reached base 17 more times. But you'd prefer to have Patterson leading off?

at 7:10 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

Steve, thank God you're not the manager.

at 7:12 PM Blogger Jaybee said...

Anyone want to guess who leads the Reds in on-base percentage?

I don't have the stats but my guess would be Freel or Hairston.

at 7:14 PM Blogger docproc said...

If I hear one more thing about Adam Dunn and his OBP, I'm going to puke.

Enough already.

at 7:16 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Thanks John, what about the other part of my question? Do you think there is any chance of him eating that contract?
My guess to your question, without looking it up, would be the guy on the bench, Freel.

at 7:19 PM Blogger Old guy up north said...

OPB. It's got to be Dunn or Bako.

If Griffey and Dunn go at the end of June, who are the outfielders? Jay Bruce and the Pretenders?

at 7:25 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Dunn at .391.

He's not going to eat the contract after 29 games. You have to see what he can do with Jocketty's team. It's not going to be Jocketty's team until next year.

at 7:35 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

I've got bad news for you guys. A GM and a Manager that don't believe in sabermetrics even a little bit is a very very bad thing.

at 7:35 PM Blogger Brick said...

A stat I'd be more interested in seeing Dunn lead the team in is SLG% of which he's currently 9th on the team. Walks don't normally drive in runs.

at 7:49 PM Blogger firefly118 said...

I never really watched Dusty manage! All I knew about was his wins/losses and what you hear about managing Sosa and Bonds. After watching him manage here, the calls he has made, and his statements about the lineups, I am convinced that he has no business managing.

We already see that he plays Patterson for no legit reason...

Votto should play everyday until he request a day off....

He takes pitchers out to soon one day and not soon enough the next???

at 8:12 PM Blogger RyanRico said...

Very much agree Richie Rich, a lack of sabermetrics acceptance indicates management will not grasp the big picture in assembling a ballclub.

PS - Anybody else just catch Chris Welsh describing how the Braves don't mind letting free agents go like ADRIAN BELTRE?! :) I think we have an imposter announcer on FSN tonight...

at 8:17 PM Blogger RyanRico said...

Also, I just wanted to throw this out there...I'm starting to think Krivsky did himself in here. I think the first nail in his coffin was his recommendation of Dusty Baker as Mgr. That tells me ol' Wayne was not real politically savvy...you recommend a manager who has been on ESPN for the last year and who old man Castellini has been watching on Baseball Tonight. Old man Castellini immediately puts more trust in Dusty than Wayne, and takes Dusty's recommendation to sign C. Patt 'at all costs.'

God help us should Castellini fire Jocketty and install Baker as GM. :) Nice evaluation on Patterson...in Dusty we trusty. (barf)

at 8:35 PM Blogger T-Mac said...

Poor Volquez . . . not exactly our best line-up in terms of support. Why Votto isn't in the line-up every day boggles the mind and Patterson leading off, please!?!

The Braves are already getting their brooms out.

at 8:42 PM Blogger Craig said...

Nice play Patterson. Defense is really the only reason you are out there and you can't even do that right.

at 8:48 PM Blogger Jaybee said...

That's it - I'm done.

I refuse to watch another game that Patterson is in. That was a terrible drop in CF on Chipper's fly ball. He's a disgrace to this club and should not be a Red. Pete Rose would tear him a new one if he were on the team.

at 8:54 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

Our leadoff hitter can't get on base, and our 4th hitter can't hit right handers. If only Dusty would look at the stats. Can't even comprehend a manager that wouldn't.

at 8:59 PM Blogger Ray Kinsella said...

This team is just plain pitiful and very painful to watch.

at 9:03 PM Blogger gannfan said...

What got Dusty fired in Chicago wasn't just the bad decisions and poor managing, it was the constant whining.

"In Dusty We Trusty"!

at 9:15 PM Blogger Icedawg said...

With the hot starts by players in A ball, do you have any idea when the Reds will be promoting guys up to Double A and High A. 24 & 25 year olds need to be at Double A by now.

at 9:17 PM Blogger Chris Sabo said...

hmm..maybe its a good thing I only have Fox SPorts Indiana now that I've moved to Indianapolis....I dont think I could handle watching those extra 50 games a year.

at 9:26 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Generally minor league guys get promoted at the all-star break. I asked Terry Reynolds about Daryl Thompson tonight. He said there has to be an opening at AAA for that to happen.

at 9:29 PM Blogger ryan said...

Yes, i've made up my mind. I hate reds fans.

at 9:32 PM Blogger NVreds said...

why patterson is still playing is beyond me, if this doesnt bench him I dont know what will. freel is paid just as much, put him in CF, please. I dont understand sitting votto either, especially since patty is STILL LEADING OFF, I'm not a fan of running an inferior line up when our good pitchers are pitching, this needs to change. dusty stop being a stubborn ba$$tard and sit the guy. Why are you not more aggressively looking for offense? I'm sick of defending you. shape up damnit.

that said he needs a better team, and jocketty needs to decide the player moves on this team, not dusty. thats the difference between kriv and jock is jocketty can talk Bob C or Dusty out of stupid personnel moves. We could have moved hatteberg/weathers/griffey/dunn/castro and whoever else you can think of that is old and worthless when we had the chance, jocketty probably would have told BobC to do it. move lincoln now, yeah he's been great but we can call up roenicke or mcbeth to take his place. trade dealine fire sale!! I said it before the season to justify losing if it happened, I was right to be worried the team wouldnt do it if they were winning, now I dont have to worry about that anymore.

at 9:57 PM Blogger sabr_blogger said...

Glad to see we have some posters here who appreciate sabermetrics. Now if only you worked in the Reds front office. They are definitely an old school team, which a small-market club like Cincinnati simply cannot afford to be these days. Not to oversell it, because you still need scouts and "baseball men" to deal with the personnel side of managing a team... but to have zero appreciation for the lessons that come from performance analysis is simply taking a stand for mediocrity.

"We're an old school place, and fifth place is where we will make our stand" seems to be the motto.

I've been biting my tongue because I actually have Patterson on my fantasy bb team, but I can be silent no longer. There is simply NO reason this guy should be leading off. Not based on his slow start, but based on the fact that his career OBP is about the lowest of any non-pitcher on the team (save Ross and Bako probably). It's just a joke. He still offers more than Freel overall, but batting seventh, not first.

Baker is the wrong man for this team for 3 reasons:

1. He's a bad tactical manager - this is pretty well accepted around baseball, and his reputation is buoyed solely by being considered a "player's manager"...

2. But he's a "player's manager" primarily due to his loyalty to his veteran players. This is a young team, in the midst of a great youth movement. He seems to have some growing appreciation for that, but he's still seemingly feeling his oats about the concept.

3. The other thing (besides stunting prospects' careers) that he was known for in Chicago was... shredding young pitchers' arms (Wood, Pryor et al). Hard to think about that with Volquez, Cueto and Bailey around without wincing. At least I've heard him talking about pitch counts wrt Volquez a couple of times, and it does look like they've been careful so far. But it's an aspect that bears watching.

at 10:01 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

Unbelievable. Bottom of the 9th, 2 out, down by 2 runs, shift is on and Jr. doesn't lay down the bunt for the free hit to put the tying run at the plate.

at 10:33 PM Blogger Musty Dusty said...

Totally unacceptable! Put the best team on the field and stop playing favorites, dusty! Bob C. wants a winning team? Bring back Mackanin if we can, as he could identify talent and did quite well for a team with little pitching. Get the G.M. off his butt and don't allow him to blame this on Krivsky. This year is far more frustrating than the past two years put together.

at 11:14 PM Blogger oldtimer said...

This year is more frustrating than the last two years put together.


Well put. I'm actually astonished at the lifelessness of this club. Never thought I'd ever say that about a Reds team, and I've been following them a long time.

And I'm even more astonished at the stubborness/stupidity of Dusty Baker. Didn't like the hire at all when it happened, had to endure all sorts of negative comments for not liking it, and now....well, now, it's just plain sad. And Bad. He looks totally out of touch with the players. And how can everybody but he see the bizarre absurdity of trotting out Patterson every freakin' night? Not to mention the sacred cow treatment of Dunn and Griffey. I'd love to see the look on his face when and if he gets fired. Maybe he'll finally wake up out of the slumber he's been in through all these wretched losses.

I don't want this guy anywhere near all this good new talent due up from the minors. He'll screw them up bad.

In Dusty We Go Busty.

Possibly worst performing team per talent ratio in Reds history.

Fire Baker tonight.

at 9:01 AM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

I never felt Baker was the correct manager for this team but to suggest he is a bad tactical manager is ludicrous. He, or anyone else , would not even have the players to be tactical in 1st place

Nobody has any idea on how Baker relates to the young players or his appreciation of such. Quit reading grocery store fodder and gossip

It does not appear that he is overusing the pitchers

at 10:53 AM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

performance analysis does not mean squat most of the time in "team sports"..New York Yankees ..Giants beating Patriots

nor is Cincinnati still considered a small market team..when you consider Ohio ,WV ,Kentucky, Indiana

taking stats and assigning a new name to the terminology is not cutting edge..methodology is not cutting edge ..or in fact very meaningful

I have one stat..the Reds have stunk for 7 plus years..very easy

at 12:54 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

I think statistical analysis has it's place and is already used by all clubs to some extent. Would it help this team? Nope. Would they have any more wins? Nope. It's just another tool and I don't see that as a negative unless too much emphasis is put on the outcomes. Winning is always cutting edge tool coveted the most.

It looks to me like Baker is that terrible tactician everyone talked about. Letting pitchers bat deep in the game with runners in scoring position only to pull them the following inning is a knothole move. He double switches as if he invented it and is trying to sell you on why it's such a great move. And then there are the same lineups day after day refusing to move down the unproductive heart of the lineup in exchange for the hottest hitters. I mean, he won't even consider it. While I don't think he is overusing pitchers, give him time.

Krivsky had the right idea thinking Baker would be the man to light the fire within his two sluggers in the hopes to get record years out of them. I think he felt the rest of the players would naturally follow. Ooops.

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