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Reds Insider
 From news of the day to news of the weird, John Fay provides a glimpse of what it’s like to cover the Cincinnati Reds

John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Cardinals 5, Reds 2

Aaron Harang got hit around in the second and third like you don't see him get hit around. Seven hits and three runs in the two innings.

That was the ballgame. The Reds did nothing offensively after the second. Tough loss. Could have won the series. Could have took a little momentum into the off day.

Harang's line: 6 innings, seven hits, three runs, three walks, four strikeouts.

He left with the Reds down 3-2. Kent Mercker gave up two runs in the seventh.

Edwin Encarnacion hit his seventh home run -- a shot down the line that just got over the wall -- in the seconf. Ryan Freel drove in the other run with infield single in that inning. Joey Votto had doubled and moved up on Harang's groundout.

Seven home runs in April is a 42 home run pace.

posted by John Fay at 1:39 PM


96 Comments:

at 1:51 PM Blogger People Eating Tasty Animals said...

Umm - how 'bout Bailey's outting today. 7IP, 5H, 3ER, 2BB, 10K

108 pitches

Another performance like that and he could be replacing someone.

 
at 2:01 PM Blogger gannfan said...

How about the "win now" or "build for the future" discussion?

 
at 2:03 PM Blogger Steven Ross said...

John, this isn't "fresh" but with no new contract talks mentioned, do you think Dunn is on borrowed time as a Red? I know we have to wait until after June 15th but he's become the poster boy for blog/talk show criticism.

 
at 2:04 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

John- How about this topic. What is the weakest part about the 08 Reds. I am going to say the lack of run producing outfielders.

 
at 2:08 PM Blogger Swan Lewis said...

Hmm.
I don't know John...maybe we should revisit the 'lineup' here...

So I propose that for one day we all give our best lineup, the one that we want to see the Redleg's run out there...and then we leave that on the Cantu, and cancer Hamilton topics...

For me:

Larkin SS
Rose 3B
Junior RF
E.D. 44 CF
Dunn 1B
Foster LF
Morgan 2B
Bench C

There we all go. Straight Vid Game style!!! Notice the fine work of R and L batters....notice Dunny getting a new position and number, to thus become his dominant self!

Oh, and the rotation:

Rijo, Harang, T. Browning, Seaver, and Soto.

No particular order, except Tommy is a southpaw.

Redlegs!!!

 
at 2:10 PM Blogger sojushot said...

Edwin for the All Star game...get out and stuff the ballot box...

 
at 2:11 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

John,

I haven't looked at other rookie's numbers, but would you say Votto is a leading, if not the leading candidate for ROY in this young season?

 
at 2:13 PM Blogger Mr. Doom and Gloom said...

here's a topic...

who gets sent down or goes on the dl with a phantom injury when stormy comes back from l'ville?

 
at 2:13 PM Blogger stew said...

John,

What about the comment that I posted on the other thread as a fresh topic? Is there anyone who Jocketty might be eyeing as that undervalued star who could be the anchor in the lineup ala McGuire, Edmonds, Rolen?

 
at 2:18 PM Blogger 1stbaseman22 said...

WHEN DO YOU THINK THE WILL UNLOAD HATTY AND FREEL AND MAYBE HOPPER

 
at 2:21 PM Blogger Mr. Doom and Gloom said...

it will be a while yet on bailey

build for the future, but good luck selling that to the delusional castellini...get bruce and bailey up here to take their lumps as soon as it makes sense financially

either dunn or jr has to go, preferably both, but i don't know what will be on the market as far as run producing OF's go...burrell maybe? a RH bat, but if he keeps this up he's gonna demand way too much dough.

weakest part of '08 reds thus far is the heart of the batting order

 
at 2:24 PM Blogger TravisG said...

My wish is a bit more modest, soju. I'd be happy if Edwin batted third, fourth or fifth.

 
at 2:44 PM Blogger Shoe said...

Thanks for the time ... Dunn plays like he looks ... sloppy ... needs to lose weight and act like he wants to be on the field ... a little hustle would be nice ... to many swing and miss guys on this team ... I'm ready for him and Griffey to go ... I like Ken and appreciate what he meant to the Reds and baseball, but he's not what he used to be ... that's the fact, like 'em or not.

 
at 2:56 PM Blogger Joe said...

The all time Reds line-up has to include the Big Dog - Antonio Perez. The Reds may never see a better clutch hitter and RBI man. No slam on Dunn, but he would not make my 25 man all time roster. How can you forget Frank Robinson? Davis was good, Robinson was great. I'd take Vada Pinson over Davis. Pinson should be in the Hall of Fame, and I'm not talking about the one at GAB. You can also make a good argument for Davey Concepcion over Larkin, but I can live with Larkin.

Jim Maloney certainly belongs in the rotation over Browning. People just do not know how good Maloney was, but read some of the comments from the players of the era and he was a stud.

 
at 3:01 PM Blogger Jason said...

So much for playing small ball. Cant get a bunt down to move Dunn to third. Then send Righty David Ross up there instead of PH Javy V., im starting to think Baker doesnt have hit head on straight.

 
at 3:03 PM Blogger Unknown said...

I would like to talk about Adam Dunn's homeruns this year. He has only hit a home run when the Reds have won or lost by seven runs. This happened in games against Milwaukee, Chicago, Los Angeles, and a couple of days ago against St. Louis. I'm not so much upset as the number (or lack of number) of homeruns, but rather the non-existence in clutch situations.

 
at 3:03 PM Blogger Rob Dicken said...

The Reds are not going to win anything by scoring 2-3 runs per game on a normal basis...

Poor Harang...he's pitched wonderfully this month and really has nothing to show for it (record). :(

 
at 3:06 PM Blogger liz said...

Why does "K" stand for a strike out??

 
at 3:09 PM Blogger Zippy said...

What, exactly, is the point of carrying 3 catchers if Ross is hitting for himself in the 6th inning with two runners on base? And what's the point of having a bullpen if Harang is hitting for himself in the 6th with two on and two out, with all kinds of lefties available to hit? Even IF Harang manages to pitch another scoreless inning or two, that's a dumb decision. If the bullpen can't be trusted to throw a couple scoreless innings in a close game, then get rid of all of them and spend the money on hitters.

 
at 3:11 PM Blogger Mr. Doom and Gloom said...

i don't think dunn makes my all time 40 man roster. jr doesn't sniff my 40 man either unless we're talking about the 1990s jr, but he wore a seattle uni. i'd take dave parker over dunn and jr.

i'd take davis and larkin on the 25 man but neither in the starting lineup, gimme concepcion and frank robinson

maloney and gullett over harang and browning.

 
at 3:17 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

7th Double play for Keppinger. About time for him to take a break. It will be nice for Agon to get back so that we have both of them available.

Nice to see Dunn going to left. He is heating up

 
at 3:19 PM Blogger MPCB said...

Did Arroyo save himself with his last outing? I heard it said that FoxSports radar gun is a couple of mph slow as compared to MLB or even the stadium guns, but Arroyo really is off on his fastball. He was mostly mid-80's when he got up the nerve to throw his fastball. He "pitched" his way out of trouble the other day to get a win, but I'm afraid if something doesn't change, he is going to continue to get hit hard this season.

With Cueto and Arroyo struggling of late, do you think Bailey will get a call up soon?

 
at 3:19 PM Blogger Steven Ross said...

Ahhhh....I like Kepp but he's turning into Sean Casey revisited with all these double plays lately.
Next time, just lay down a bunt.

 
at 3:26 PM Blogger Joe said...

Harang is getting the level of support Arroyo did last year.

Can't ask for a whole lot more than what he has given so far this year, but we could ask for some support from the middle of the line-up, Dunn/Griffy/Phillips.

Does this team have the mentality that because Harang is pitching they can take the day off at the plate?

EE for the Allstar team works for me. You can't set aside the errors, but everything else warrants a vote in my opinion. The only other Red who deserves consideration is Phillips and Keppinger is a stretch.

 
at 3:31 PM Blogger Zippy said...

Dunn definitely isn't a good hitter in clutch situations, but people need to realize a simple fact: pitchers pitch around Dunn in close games. When the score is lopsided and a HR doesn't make much difference, Dunn sees a lot more strikes, and hits a lot more HRs. When it's close, they pitch around him, and he either walks or ends up swinging at bad pitches, which is one of the reasons he doesn't get many hits in those situations. He's definitely NOT a good clutch hitter, but his lack of HRs in clutch situations has a lot to do with pitching.

 
at 3:38 PM Blogger CoachD178 said...

I can't understand alot of the moves Dusty makes. Keppinger is a perfect bunt candidate there and you have Griffey, Phillips, and Dunn behind him. It's not a guaranteed RBI for those guys. But with Keppinger, who almost always puts the ball in play, your DP chances are high. Why not have him bunt there? One of many questionable moves Dusty continues to make.

 
at 3:40 PM Blogger pootyhead said...

My suggestion for a fresh topic is to read everyone's prediction for the month of May. As in what will Walt do? Anyone going and who will becoming in

 
at 3:40 PM Blogger CoachD178 said...

If you are going to whine about playing time you better make a routine catch in the 7th inning to the first batter with your team down 1 run. There are too many complainers on this team. There is far too much talent in this lineup for them to be so consistently ineffective knocking in runs. Harang is going to lose another game where he pitched well but got almost no support. It's sad to watch this over and over again.

 
at 3:40 PM Blogger Brandon said...

John,

Here's one looking towards next year..

What are the chances of letting Dunn and Griffey walk. Moving EE to LF and signing a guy like Crede to play 3B and be a decent hitting right handed stick and good glove. Have Bruce fill out the RF slot and find something to do with CF and C thru FA or a trade.

A line up next year of:

1. FA CF/Freel/Hairston/Hopper CF
2. Keppinger SS
3. Bruce RF
4. Phillips 2B
5. Votto 1B
6. EE LF
7. Crede 3B
8. FA C

That would still be a team with good pop and a better OBP team in my opinion and the defense behind our pitchers would be better. Another option would be to move EE to 1B and throw Votto in LF since he does have some experience there.

 
at 3:43 PM Blogger Zippy said...

Good thing Dusty didn't pinch hit for Harang in the 6th inning with the tying run on 2nd and two outs. We obviously needed Harang to pitch ONE more inning and then exit the game having thrown 100 pitches. If you're going to have him hit for himself in the 6th, then why on earth take him out for the 7th? Seems to be the worst of both worlds.

This is the second time I can remember Dusty doing this. He did exactly the same thing with Cueto in the 3-2 loss in Milwaukee, allowing Cueto to hit for himself with runners on base and two outs, and then he pulled Cueto out of the game after he faced exactly two more batters. I wish someone would explain to Dusty that when you're behind, you actually need to score in order to win the game.

How anyone can still defend this guy is beyond me.

 
at 3:52 PM Blogger s said...

It seems to me that one's best hitter should bat in the 3 hole. The Reds' best hitter is NOT Griffey right now. Griffey's best days may be behind him.

I would drop Griffey to 5, and put Votto in the 3 hole.

My lineup would like:

Freel/Patterson CF
Keppinger SS
Votto 1b
Phillips 2b
Griffey RF
EE 3B
Dunn LF
Bako C
Pitcher

I could see flipping EE and Votto from time to time -- but Griffey, until he starts hitting near .300, does not belong in the 3 hole...

 
at 3:52 PM Blogger BATSFAN said...

This isnt fun anymore

 
at 3:56 PM Blogger BATSFAN said...

I tried to hold off getting mad at Dusty but i cant take it anymore, in the inning with Dunn at 2nd nobody out, EE should have bunted he tried only on one pitch, then pinch hit bako with runners on bc ross was out then pitcher batted, then later you walk Pujols to get to Ankiel, Uhhh Puljols did nothing this series Ankiel killed us. Then in a 3-2 game pitch Affeldt instead of Merker. Baker sucks, he always have with the Giants he just had good players, when it comes to managing he SUCKS

 
at 3:58 PM Blogger schlemdog said...

Good catch Zippy.

I complained like a middle child when he did it with Cueto.

 
at 4:06 PM Blogger CoachD178 said...

Great topic, all-time Reds lineup.

3B Pete Rose, S
SS Barry Larkin, R
CF Eric Davis, R
LF Frank Robinson, R
1B Tony Perez, R
C Johnny Bench, R
RF George Foster, R
2B Joe Morgan, L

SP Jose Rijo, R
SP Tom Seaver, R
SP Mario Soto, R
SP Tom Browning, L
SP Aaron Harang, R

CL John Franco, L

The Ken Griffey Jr. that wore #24 for the Mariners is my all-time CF but he has never been close to that player for the Reds. Not even in 2000 before all the injuries.

Concepcion was my favorite player as a kid but Larkin is hands down the better overall player.

 
at 4:12 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

Gotta love Keppinger..hes become a great defensive SS.. Finally we have a SS that bats respectively and is a good in the field

Marty Brenneman is gonna make Castellini have a heart attack..gotta love Marty's honesty

Team is dead..still no energy bad chemistry

Bailey has always been pretty good in the minors..don't get your hopes up. He will end up as an average middle reliever on some club

 
at 4:18 PM Blogger HoosierVirg said...

I watched Maloney pitch quite a bit and he was a great pitcher, he pitched his third no-hitter in 1969 on this date. Yeah, I would pick him over Browning. Looks like Harang is getting the kind of run support this year that Bronson got last year.

 
at 4:20 PM Blogger Swan Lewis said...

I meant Robinson in left batting 6th not FOSTER.

The purpose was to relate how silly it is, not to discus the all time reds lineup..it is boring to read posts everyday about the 'best' lineup.

Play video games, man!

Let the people who know continue to get paid to put players out, we PAY to watch them..haha

Love and Redlegs!!!

 
at 4:25 PM Blogger Gunner said...

Nice stat on Eddie ... unfortunetly he has 8 errors this month also which puts him on a pace of around 50 ... yikes!

 
at 4:32 PM Blogger Gunner said...

Im surpised that Marty isnt on his anti Dunn campaign ... he is struggling worse than this time last year and Marty was giving him the third degree. Come June, if Adam continues to have an off year, you have to think Walt will be looking to move him to an AL team. Im beginning to think we have held onto him too long and will be selling low though. It would almost be better for us to keep him for the rest of the year, make a deal to offer him arbitration with the understanding he will reject it ... and get a draft pick in return.

 
at 4:42 PM Blogger Dan said...

I like this as a lineup:

SS Keppinger
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
RF Griffey
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
CF Freel/Patterson
C Bako

Get the OBP at the top of the lineup.

Oh... and tell Votto that it's actually OK to take a walk now and then. He's hitting great but w/o the walks his OBP is below-average. That was actually one of his strengths in the minors.

 
at 4:47 PM Blogger Bob Loblaw said...

I am thoroughly disgusted with today's performance. 18 LOB through 7 innings. Kepp, Griff,and Phillips really let us down today, although Glaus made a good play to rob Phillips of a hit. David Ross is worthless and should be treated as such. I get the most angry when the Reds fail to score runs off of guys like Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan. There just isn't any reason for it.

 
at 5:29 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Somehow, I don't think the team would be in such bad shape if Mackanin was still manager. For instance, no Patterson and more time for Hopper. (Wouldn't reflect as bad on Krivsky either.) I was hoping the play of the second half of last year would carry into this year but it hasn't even been close.

 
at 5:33 PM Blogger oldtimer said...

Just readin' some of the comments the last month, it's apparent a lot of folks here have concluded Dusty Baker is doing a pretty lousy job with this particular team. I concur completely, the problem is that he signed a BIG BIG BUCKS contract, so like it or not, we have to live with his ineptitude for at least this season.

So many people screamed for the Reds to hire a big name manager, after Narron and Miley, McKanin got passed over even though he managed somehow to have the same guys Narron screwed up with playing inspired baseball. It
s the old adage, be careful what you wish for.....

Who cannot argue that Dusty Baker has better personel and has the Reds playing much much worse this year? NO ONE!!!He seems detached and disinterested. Maybe he's been Bengalized, too. He gets a solid F from me.Boring lousy unexciting losing; that's this season so far. Maybe the Reds will jell a little bit. But this season unbelievably enough may be ending earlier than last year. UnBElievABLE!

Kick Baker upstairs, he's part of the complacency.

 
at 5:34 PM Blogger Brandon said...

Nice stat on the errors thing. Could we proclaim that we had a 40/40 guy if he did wind up with that? Anyways I think he is settling down some out there. This past week or so he has actually looked pretty darn good out there.

 
at 5:43 PM Blogger JerBear said...

I don't understand how the Cardinals are so good. I envy their organization.

They have all these guys I've barely heard of in their lineup, and a starting rotation filled with converted bullpen pitchers, a journeyman or two, and a underachiever in Kyle Lohse.

When you watch the Cardinals it's like watching the opposite of the Reds at times. They are getting the most out of their talent.

You can only hope that Jocketty can bring some of that magic to Cincinnati.

Dusty Baker isn't my favorite managaer of all time. But I think after they fired Dave Miley I started to realize that the managers have not been the problem in Cincinnati.

The Reds have had a lot of the same players throughout those years, and the owernship was questionable.

I think the dissapointment now is that we have ownership that wants to win, and is willing to spend the money...but we still haven't really figured things out.

I'm looking forward to 2009 because I think it may be an exciting season with a lot of youth.

I'm pretty optimistic with the Reds, but this team just brings about disinterest in me.

 
at 5:53 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Oh... and tell Votto that it's actually OK to take a walk now and then. He's hitting great but w/o the walks his OBP is below-average. That was actually one of his strengths in the minors."

I would imagine that's a result of Dusty's "tinkering"; we all know how he feels about players "clogging up the bases" by taking walks.

 
at 5:55 PM Blogger Unknown said...

Dunn definitely isn't a good hitter in clutch situations, but people need to realize a simple fact: pitchers pitch around Dunn in close games. When the score is lopsided and a HR doesn't make much difference, Dunn sees a lot more strikes, and hits a lot more HRs. When it's close, they pitch around him, and he either walks or ends up swinging at bad pitches, which is one of the reasons he doesn't get many hits in those situations. He's definitely NOT a good clutch hitter, but his lack of HRs in clutch situations has a lot to do with pitching.

Zippy, logic never works on the general public. Dunn has 242 career homers. 6 have ended the game, 26 have tied the game, and 75 have given the Reds the lead. That's 44% of the total. So the original claim is the result of someone who didn't feel like looking it up before typing.

 
at 5:57 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

Some would call it lack of talent while others would say lack of desire. Who knows. It just looks dysfunctional to me. I am ready to say Baker was the wrong man for the job. Right now this team is where it is mostly because Griffey, Dunn and Phillips are not producing.

 
at 6:08 PM Blogger Unknown said...

Dusty told Votto not to walk, it clogs the bases and you can't walk across home plate baby!!!

 
at 6:15 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

it amazes me to see many in here try to juggle this lineup in order to better this team..Juggle away..it aint gonna help. Marron juggled..Pete juggled.. Dusty can juggle ..the results will be the same

todays performance is no more or less disgusting that most games of the past seven years

 
at 6:59 PM Blogger reds fest said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
at 7:00 PM Blogger reds fest said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
at 8:29 PM Blogger Red Faced said...

Do you want to know why the Cardinals have been so good in recent years and the Reds have not? Well I'll tell you. 2 OUT HITS. Our batters don't get them and our pitchers give them up too often. The Cardinals always seem to do the little things, they get 2 out hits, hit with runners in scoring position, advance their runners, get down the sac bunts. They are an offensively sound well oiled machine. The Reds... well whatever the opposite of that is. We should nick-name this team the Little Red Wagon as a play off of the Big Red Machine.

If your name isn't Harang and you've been on this team longer than 4 years (in the big leagues that is) then I think your time is Dunn. See ya! Bring in the youth please and let's get on with building for the future. And Patterson, you can go too.

 
at 9:11 PM Blogger Ron said...

If the Reds are serious about building a winner, they must begin by finding a legitimate number one starter. Harang is solid, battles har, but has a career ERA of over 4.00. He is going to lose more often than not when facing the number one starter for contending teams - Zambrano, Looper, Sheets, and Oswalt all have career ERAs under 4.00, Oswalt and Zambrano are under 3.5. Harang is a number 2 at best; Arroyo a 4 or 5.
Second, the Reds cannot win with Griffey and Dunn occupying valuable space in the batting order. Griffey can no longer handle the bat well enough to be a #3 hitter. Dunn has never proven himself as a clutch hitter. Phillips is better suited to bat 3 than 4. Encarnacion is the best option for clean-up. The Reds will begin to win when they move Griffey and Dunn to teams where they don't have to be the leaders and turn leadership over to younger players with more energy for winning.
Finally, the Reds need to consistently play a legitimate lead off hitter - either Freel or Hopper or go find one. Patterson is not the answer. Hairston is not a lead-off hitter. They have to be able to play small ball, play aggressively, and put fear into opposing pitchers when they get runners on base. Hopper or Freel, Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto, Bruce, can do that.
The big thing now is to have a "brand". The Reds need to borrow a "brand" from the Big Red Machine - Aggressive. The machine was a machine because it was aggressive at bat, on the bases, in the field, and on the mound.

 
at 9:17 PM Blogger reds fest said...

I don't think Bailey's outing is enough to be called up. Belisle was better in AAA... Offence is our problem. It's emerging issue. Not pitching.

 
at 9:22 PM Blogger LongTimeRedsFan said...

Zippy, I completely agree with several comments you made in this post. Dunn has certainly disappointed us but you are right, he does get pitched around, and I, for one, think his home runs will be sorely missed when he's gone. And, on Dusty, well, I've been saying it. His management decisions have been very questionable since the start. Remember the second day of spring training, when he said something along the lines of "certain players aren't hustling, we have to do the little things, I'm going to talk to the players"? Remember the next day when he said "today it was better"? He was patting himself on the back as if he had already made an impact. Well, I have seen nothing from him since then. Even the players are questioning his decisions. Listen to what Ryan Freel said about his frustrations. What he didn't say was, something like, "Dusty has talked to me and explained my role". No. He just keeps playing his boys, and the players see and know whats going on. They see the same missed opportunities to bunt, pinch hit, pull a pitcher, or start a guy who's hot. In my opinion, Dusty is a major part of this team's problem. And some of you have already pointed out that Dusty doesn't hit or field, but neither did Pete Mc and he got a lot more out of the same guys. And why not flip Griffey and Dunn. Griffey is not a 3 hitter, and Phillips might be able to provide Dunn with a little more protection. When will we have a manager that stands up to Griffey?

 
at 9:37 PM Blogger LongTimeRedsFan said...

I agree, the Reds need a legitimate lead off hitter, and it's not CP. But, guys, it's not Freel or Hairston or Hopper. Yes Freel and Hopper did OK to finish up last year, after it was obvious that the Reds were out of it. But we need more than any of those guys can ever provide. Some of you keep pointing out that Jay Bruce is not a lead off hitter. But combine the accumulated "production" of what we have.....and is there anybody who doesn't think JB could at least do that?...with the potential upside being much more than any upside our current 4 can provide? Get JB up here now, DFA or trade 3 of the 4, find a RH pinch hitter with power (hopefully a 1st baseman), bye to Hatteberg, Javy, Ross, and oh yea...a special good bye to Dick Pole (say hello to Ted Power). Come on Walt, it's been a week!

 
at 11:42 PM Blogger Aaron said...

First, let me say that I am a huge Griffey fan and always will be, but watching him at the plate this year has been painful. He is trying to pull everything, hardly ever going the other way. Pitchers are pitching him low-away and he rolls over and hits a roller to 2B. It is killing me to watch him this year. I hope that he turns it around.

As for Dunn, I am no major stat guy, but he is a horrible clutch hitter. I think he needs to go to the AL (maybe the Rangers). I would take whatever we could get in return.

Dusty- We need to find a leadoff hitter and stick with them. Somebody needs to play everday. Freel is healty and probably deserves it. I understand Patterson is a great athlete, but he is not a lead off hitter. I know you have a man crush on him, but please refrain from batting him above the seven hole. If your going to start him, use the LaRussa theory and bat him ninth.

It's time to call up some boys from Louisville and blow this team up. We are not fun to watch. The Reds won't throw in the towel until the end of May.

Oh, BTW, the Reds have to go 19-9 in May to get to .500. With two series against Hotlanta, then the Cubs & Mets. Dusty said his goal was 15 Win's per month.

Lineup:

CF- Freel
SS- Keppinger*
2B- Phillips
1B- Votto
3B- Encarnacion
RF- Bruce (call up)
LF- Hopper
C- Bako/Ross/Valentin
P- whomever, but call up Bailey
* Gonzalez starts and bats 7th moving Hopper to 2nd.

Also, Bruce can play CF if that is his natual position, I hear he projects long term as RF.

 
at 7:18 AM Blogger Another losing season said...

The Reds will be lucky if they go .500 in May. It's looking more along the lines of 10-18, 11-17. And, forget June...with Boston, the Yankees, Cleveland and a short series against St. Louis, they probably only win 8 or 9 games that month.

 
at 7:28 AM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

why does everyone spend so much time analyzing Dunn and providing statistics that would somehow make his performance acceptable..

the only stat that matters is wins and losses..and we have stunk

baseball is a team sport..this team is not put together well and the results speak for themselves.

dont make something that is simple..so complex

you keep the Dunns, Griffeys, and Freels..you get the same reults

watching Griffey at the plate the last 7 years has been painful..that is when he actually plays

Freel does not deserve to be a leadoff hitter

The problem with this team is not the leadoff hitter or thye clutch hitting. The problem with this team is the team

 
at 8:04 AM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

This lineup posted yesterday:

CF- Freel
SS- Keppinger*
2B- Phillips
1B- Votto
3B- Encarnacion
RF- Bruce (call up)
LF- Hopper
C- Bako/Ross/Valentin
P- whomever, but call up Bailey
* Gonzalez starts and bats 7th moving Hopper to 2nd.

One huge problem, even if you take the career high numbers for Bruce, Hopper, and Freel your looking at TOTAL 26 home runs out of your outfield. Youve got to have 2 of your guys capable of
25-30 HR per season. Bruce may be that some day, but Hopper and Freel never will.
And Freel in center all year is just scary.

Its just not a major league outfield.

I would play
Bruce LF
Hopper CF
Griffey RF (short term)

then youve got to sign a guy that will give you 30+hr and 100+ rbi to upgrade from Griffey (not downgrade)

I would also 86 Ross / Valentin and bring up Hanigan, I dont think hell do any worse offensively than Ross and is better deffensively than Valentin and just name Bako the starter. That will free up a roster spot for Bailey and then Jocketty can focus on signing a big time catcher later on or in the off season.

 
at 10:36 AM Blogger Zippy said...

RR,

You're telling us the percentage of Dunn's HRs that came in close games. But that isn't the right question to ask. The right question is this: In key situations, how often does Dunn come through? For that, you'd need to know how many times Dunn has come to bat in close games, and how many times he's failed. I'm pretty sure you don't have that stat.

To put this another way: If a guy has 10 career HRs and ALL of them occurred in close games, does that make him a good HR hitter in close games? It depends entirely on how many ABs he's had in those situations. If he's only had 50 ABs in close games, then he looks like a superstar. If he's had 2000 career ABs in close games and only hit 10 HRs, then he's more like Juan Castro.

For his career, Dunn is only hitting .213 with .412 slg with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. (In 381 ABs.) He has 19 HRs, and 148 walks. Obviously, pitchers are pitching around him in those situations, and when he puts the ball in play, he tends not to hit it very hard. End of story.

 
at 11:33 AM Blogger Steven Ross said...

Dunn has opposing pitchers "pitch" around him? When? Where? For someone who either leads the league or is close to leading the planet in strikeouts, I beg to differ. They go right after him.

Dunn's awful "D", suspect baserunning and gawd awful propensity to take walks when going the other way makes much more sense, tips the balance against any positives. He needs to go because underneath it all, he's a DH! Nothing more!

 
at 12:52 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

This blog has slowed to an overweight snails pace.

I have to agree with Jack. Baseball is a simple game and not one of the more difficult ones to understand. People involved with baseball however, want you to believe they have some superior knowledge or that the common baseball fan can't grasp all of it. That's plain rubbish.

This team is going to have another losing season because it made all the wrong decisions with it's outfield personnel. Add to that a manager who is making terrbile decisions on almost a daily basis and you find the formula for losing. Don't be upset with me. I'm not responsible.

 
at 12:55 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

why would you want to free up a roster spot for Bailey..hes very average at best

you dont have to replace Griffey with a "power guy"..Just replace Griffey with someone that can bat .280 and field decently

why would you start gonazelez over keppinger ..your best hitter

 
at 1:00 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

John..per your request there were no Hamilton updates yesterday

last nite Hamilton gets 4 RBIs..now batting .330

we sure could use that

 
at 1:11 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Jack and Another Losing Season posting similar posts back-to-back. Stunning.


I'm also stunned to learn that you like Josh Hamilton and don't like Griffey, Dunn and Freel. And that no stats matter except wins and losses.

Come up with something new.

 
at 1:21 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

Strictly coincidence Fay. I have no earthly idea who Jack is but happen to agree with many of his posts. I got news for you, thousands of baseball fans agree with our thoughts on Griffey and Dunn. Now stop worrying about who's who and write something compelling.

 
at 1:25 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

What is your fascination with Dunn, Griffey and Freel? Make an argument why the Reds should keep them. Do you have any thoughts? What would you do?

I just have to believe your too close to these guys and won't say what's on your mind for fear of upsetting them. Tell me I'm wrong.

 
at 1:41 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

john check IPs I am not Losing

John you tell us not to attack other bloggers yet you do

I do agree with Losing.. . I dont dislike Freel, Griffey and Dunn.. I dislike losing seven years in a row

John I will be glad to come down to your office with Losing..then you can apologize ..lunch on me..

 
at 1:47 PM Blogger omnired said...

Cueto has gotten even less runn support than Harang.

14 runs in Cueto's 6 starts
23 runs in Harang's 7 starts

Support for Arroyo is slightly better with 21 runs in 6 starts.

Volquez has started 4 of the team's 5 blowouts.

 
at 1:54 PM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

"why would you want to free up a roster spot for Bailey..hes very average at best"

So a guy has to be an all star to be brought up?

Hes proved time and again he can pitch at AAA. Unfortunately hes proved nothing in the bigs. That makes him a AAAA (four A)guy. The only way to handle a AAAA guy is to bring him up and let him learn how to pitch to big league hitters.

Its time with Bailey, either hes gonna learn, and break through, or hes not, and needs to be cut loose. The only thing leaving him in Louisville does is prolong solidifying this rotation.

As far as replacing Griffey with a power guy, you have to have someone in the lineup that can force pitching changes in middle innings in close games. A slugger coming up in the sixth can mean adios to the starter and hello to a flawed middle releiver.

You take Dunn and Griffey off this team, who does that? EE?

Not so much, especially as a righty. (Most starters are righty).

As you like to point out, with Dunn / Griffs 24m, we should be able to sign a starting pitcher AND a slugger in the outfield.

 
at 2:33 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

actually...Bailey is making very slow progress at AAA

Brandon Larson proved time and again he could kill minor league pitching ..yet stunk up the majors.

Some players cannot make the jump for whatever reason(s)

I have no idea what the answer is going to be in the outfield..but obviously the answer is not Dunn, Patterson, Hairston, Freel and Griffey

keep the same players expect the same results

 
at 2:48 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

Lunch sounds good Jack. I'm all in favor of clearing the air and have no problem coming out of the blog closet, so to speak.

John Fay...I asked you in my last post which you deleted to make your argument for Dunn, Griffey and Freel. You will be surprised how reasonable I am and how willing I am to listen to another viewpoint. All I know is you seem to disagree with Jack and me but I have no idea why.

So, I ask again, please state your case for the Reds future direction with respect to these three players.

 
at 3:03 PM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

Heres a wacky lineup, but not so wacky as to include guys who are not in the orginization.

Hopper CF
Kepp SS
Votto LF
EE 3B
BP 2B
Bruce RF
Griff 1B (NL DH)(gets JB strikes)
Bako
P

You could run this lineup out as soon as Bruce is up and Hopp is off the DL

Griff will have a learning curve @ 1B, (digging out low throws)but we aint gonna win anything this year anyway.

Votto plays 1B on JR's days off, insert Hairston or Freel in left.

I know JBA, same players.. blah blah.

 
at 3:05 PM Blogger Zippy said...

Steve,

Do you know what a walk is? And do you know who's second in the league in those? I'll give you a hint: it's a guy who gets pitched around. And it's the guy who's currently 21st in the league in K's, 16 K's behind the league leader.

Interestingly enough, if you check the current stats, Dunn has a better BB/K ratio in 2008 than many of the league's best hitters, including Utley, Fielder, Howard, Holliday, C. Jones, Lee (both Carlos and Derek), Fukudome, H. Ramirez, etc. etc. Face it: Dunn gets pitched around a LOT.

 
at 3:06 PM Blogger Red Faced said...

I do not always agree with Jack but I don't always disagree with him either and even though some of us might not appreciate his cold and matter of fact way of presenting his opinion I have to say that he is correct when he says that Griffey and Dunn both should be moved.

We have too many guys who too similar. Let's see, below avg speed, high strikeout rates, low BA, low BA with RISP, these guys are supposed to be the leaders of this team, they should be stepping up to the plate and getting the big hit but I'm telling you I have ZERO confidence when these guys come up to bat with runners on base that they can get a hit. Especially Dunn. His homeruns are usually meaningless and he strikes out more times than not when you need a big hit. Worse yet neither one acts like they give a crap about whether the team wins or loses on a nightly basis.

 
at 3:06 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Sorry Jack, I gave the Hamilton update last nite, a grand slam and now has 32 rbis. Deezman was kind enough to give us a Cantu update. Tomorrow we will have a Volquez update. Lets hope its good because after him we get Belisle and Arroyo. Didn't they stink up the place last year, too?
St CSA

 
at 3:39 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Thought Jack and Losing didn't know one another.

As for the outfield, I think Freel has played his way into the equation. His numbers are very good as a starter. He's the best leadoff option. Other than Keppinger and Keppinger is much better No. 2 hitter.

As for Griffey and Dunn this is a critical month. If the Reds aren't at .500 by June. 1, they've got to move one or both.

As I wrote, a week or so ago, this the biggest decision Jocketty faces.

I've got no idea what he'll do.

 
at 3:40 PM Blogger Unknown said...

My 6 year old daughter had a fascination with Brandon Larson when he played in Louisville (maybe because we had tickets right beside third base). Brandon Larson used to strut around on the field like he was a peacock. His ego may have been his downfall.

 
at 3:47 PM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

ALS and JBA,

John is not in the business of "water cooler talk". He is a reporter and represents the Enquirer. It would not be responsible or prudent for John to bash the team or a player on a blog.

He may be critical in his Enquirer piece, or may tell someone he knows in confidence how he feels about so and so, but to shoot his mouth off on this blog like the rest of us would just be unproffesional.

Think about it, he doesnt know any of us, and for all he knows something he says on here could be twisted around and end up on a call in radio show as second hand "fact". Then hes got to answer to players, front office people, and his boss for something he may or may not have even said.

He may be just as fed up with Griffey, Dunn, and Freel as you, but what does he gain by saying that on this blog?

So before you slap the "homer" tag on him, consider his situation.

 
at 4:01 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

John..Ill tell ya what.. We can meet you down at your office. If Losing I and CSA are not one in the same ..you get us seats behind the Reds dugout. And we also demand a formal apology to our blog family


Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn are millionaires..many times over ..I am not being cold..they will do quite well and i hope have a great life

We need to bite the bullet and go young The Reds will not lose fans by articulating such , I would be psyched to see the youngsters up
Conversely, attendance aint so hot now..they should try something different

 
at 4:01 PM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

"Interestingly enough, if you check the current stats, Dunn has a better BB/K ratio in 2008 than many of the league's best hitters, including Utley, Fielder, Howard, Holliday, C. Jones, Lee (both Carlos and Derek), Fukudome, H. Ramirez, etc. etc."



AND LESS RBI's!

Look, sure he sees alot of balls, but show me an at bat without a called strike or a swing and miss strike and ill agree he was pitched around.

I think when pitchers get behind in the count, they back down, but they go after him early. 3-0 or 3-1 and your just stupid to groove AD a fastball. But with his strikeout numbers, I dont think theres a pitching coach in the league that would tell a starter to pitch around Adam Dunn.

Ive said it before, he gets at least one hitable pitch per at bat, most of the time he just isnt good enough to hit it.

 
at 4:39 PM Blogger omnired said...

So, if you get rid of Dunn, Freel, and Griffey, who plays the outfield? Last time I checked, Bruce can't play all 3 positions at once (he's almost that good) and I see no other youth at AAA worth having a "youth movement" for.

 
at 5:21 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Obviously if you get rid of Dunn, Griffey and Freel you will need bodies in return, perhaps an outfielder would be one. If not, for the $30mil you would unload, I would think you could find somebody.

Yeah John, now you are a Freel fan? I agree, let him play now ahead of Patterson, until he quits hitting. He always does. That is if you can stand his stupid play.
St CSA

 
at 6:08 PM Blogger LongTimeRedsFan said...

OK, so we get rid of Dunn and Griffey.....take the $30 mil and get...wait....think about it....last time we went after outfielders, we ended up with Patterson and Hairston.

 
at 6:11 PM Blogger wanderinredsfan said...

John,
Just wondering; is it legal to block certain posters for the good/quality of the blog? I'd consider it, especially when rants are repeated over and over and over again in futility. It stalls the progression of discussion and debate.
So instead of discussing how we let go of loverboy to Texas, or dreamy to Tampa, can we proceed with a discussion towards possible scenarios for this team's success. For instance, there seems to be a lot of talk of getting rid of Griffey or Dunn for the better of the team, but no real solution as to who could be on our radar. I think both are underappreciated by Cincy fans, but I also believe that one will be gone by the offseason due to financial frugality and the emergence of Bruce. I think that Jr. is most likely to want/get traded, and I too believe that Seattle is a nice fit. I think their rookie catcher Jeff Clement would fit just fine as compensation, and could easily slide into playing time immediately. Can anybody think of any other possible fit? I tried evaluating the Blue Jays' needs as I heard that their scouts have been lurking around town, but can't see any great fit that may help in the near future. I would hate to lose Jr. without some immediate help in return.

 
at 6:23 PM Blogger Zippy said...

"AND LESS RBI's!"

And more walks! More walks than ANY of the hitters I named in my post.

"Look, sure he sees alot of balls, but show me an at bat without a called strike or a swing and miss strike and ill agree he was pitched around."

If Dunn gets ONE good pitch per at-bat and other hitters get TWO or THREE good pitches per at-bat, that would explain BOTH things. It would explain why Dunn has more walks, AND it would explain why he has fewer RBI.

Now, I've said many times, and I'll say again: Dunn isn't a good hitter with runners on base, which is why he ought to be hitting leadoff if he's going to remain with the Reds. But the fact is, his lack of HRs and RBI and isn't entirely his fault, because he's getting pitched around even more than usual hitting in the #5 slot.

If the pitcher starts him with two balls way out of the strikezone, it isn't surprising that he might think to himself "he's pitching around me" and assume the next pitch is a slider or something off-speed. If the pitcher throws fastball strike in that situation, it's understandable if Dunn isn't expecting it and either takes it or swings late. And that might be the ONE good pitch he sees in that at-bat.

There are many ways to pitch around a guy, and just because one pitch happens to be a strike doesn't mean the hitter should be able to rip it out of the park every time. Hitters who see two or three strikes are going to get more hits (and RBI) than hitters who only see one strike. It's that simple.

 
at 7:32 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

Can anybody think of any other possible fit?


I can. How about we package Dunn, Griffey, Freel, Patterson and Hairston to Texas for Josh Hamilton?

 
at 7:46 PM Blogger JerBear said...

It is a good point about Dunn not getting pitches to hit. It seems like Reds managers always toy with the idea of hitting him second in the lineup and I wonder if that would be the best spot for him.

It does seem that he should be hitting in the middle of the lineup though. When he's hitting 4th or 5th that means the Reds are hardly ever getting any big hits from that position. They are getting walks, strikeouts, or fly balls.

Phillips isn't hitting either though. When you look at Dunn, Griffey and Phillips' stats it's easy to see why the Reds offense stinks.

I don't know about the rest of you guys, but this is a really boring team to watch. Last year at least you had Josh Hamilton.

In years past you had Kearns, Willy Mo Pena...not great players, but they had potential and were young.

This team is painfully predictable. I think that's why some people are clamoring for Dunn and Griffey to be moved. They could be important pieces on other teams, but they can't be your centerpieces.

The excitement for fans right now doesn't involve looking at the lineup and seeing Griffey batting 3rd and Dunn batting 5th everyday...or Patterson leading off!

I think we get excited when we think of Bruce batting 3rd, Encarnacion or Phillips batting 4th, Votto batting 5th....etc.

We probably won't see that much this year though, so it is turning into a lost year.

Not only do the Reds stink right now...but the Cubs look pretty good, and St. Louis and Milwaukee also look formidable.

It all adds up to what is appearing to be a long and frustrating summer as a Reds fan.

 
at 9:40 PM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

Zip,

I just dont get why your so bent on convincing us that Dunn aint so bad, youve said hes not a good hitter, youve said he should be traded to the AL.

The only team Dunn will help win anything is a fantasy league team.

Ive agreed with you that walks are valuable, but if your sluggers best stat is BB/K thats not getting it done.

I will never agree that guys like Pujols, Ortiz, or Arod see any fewer strikes than Dunn, they are just better hitters. And yes if he is only going to see one strike and he knows that walking up then he should be ready to hit.
Not for a home run (your words not mine) but for a x base hit or single even.

ONE man on at second OR third what does his walk give you?
-An opportunity for a double play.

Same scenario, what does a ground ball through the infield give you?
Even if it doesnt go through the infield, if its to the right (his pull side) it advances the runner or possibly scores a guy from third. A walk gives you:
-An opportunity for a double play.


Feared hitters will always walk alot, but Dunns ratio is such that it favors the opposition.

 
at 10:30 PM Blogger oldtimer said...

John for what it's worth, there's some misinformation being bandies about here about checking IPs. There is a distinction between a static and dynamic IP. IP addressess in a dynamic situation change often , while still belonging to one individual. Wireless routers and firewalls do the same thing, hide your static IP address behind a false front of sorts and conceal your identity. This is what allows firewalls to keep out spyware. Hence checking IP addresses will not rule out the possibility of multiple posts by the same person. Comments to the contrary are bogus. Point being, a computer savvy person could be posting back to back with two names and two IP adresses. Just sayin'.

Methinks some may protest too much around here. Back to baseball, I agree with you that Jocketty's moves are way too unknown to predict. But I do think he will move Dunn by the trading deadline, and let Griffey go in Free Agency. I also think he'll do a small package deal early and a blockbuster this off season.

I have no doubt he will rebuild this team as quickly as he can.

 
at 11:13 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

QUOTE"
"I can. How about we package Dunn, Griffey, Freel, Patterson and Hairston to Texas for Josh Hamilton?"

I heard that rumor too. But Texas turned it down. They were insisting on Arroyo, Ross, Hatteberg, Coffey and Belisle too, plus the Reds have to pay their salaries.
St CSA

 
at 8:09 AM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

John a couple of points.. Number 1 you have told us repeatedly that we are not to mention other posters in our posts..yet many continue to do so

I am not protesting at all..if John would like to meet me or anyone else, I have no issues with this..I was the one that suggested that local bloggers get together for a game many months ago

yeah maybe we can find a way to get Hamilton back..throw C.Trent Rosencrans in the package and ship him to Texas

 
at 10:55 AM Blogger Zippy said...

Kevin,

A-Rod usually has a good left-handed hitter following him (Matsui or Giambi), which makes it tough for right-handed pitchers (i.e., most pitchers) to pitch around him with runners on base. Dunn usually has EE following him, who isn't nearly as much of a threat to right-handed pitchers. So they pitch around Dunn and take their chances with EE. As for Pujols, if he sees so many strikes, it's interesting that he has six more walks than Dunn. And Ortiz averages more walks per year than Dunn, so again it's hard to see how he's seeing more strikes.

If you check the record, I never defend Dunn until someone else attacks him. I have no special love for the guy, and I'm sure he'd be more valuable to an AL team, which is why I think the Reds would be wise to trade him while they can still get something good in return. However, whenever people claim Dunn is one of the main reasons the Reds can't score runs, I'm going to point out that he's actually one of our most productive hitters because he gets on base a lot. If he were leading off, we'd actually be able to take advantage of his ability to get on base and minimize the effects of his consistent inability to hit with runners in scoring position, AND he'd probably hit more HRs because he'd see more strikes, but of course Dusty can't try something as logical as that.

If a football team has a QB who's known to be a great runner but a lousy passer, and the coach keeps calling predominantly pass plays, and the team doesn't score many points as a result of those failed pass plays -- do you blame the QB for not doing his job? I don't. I blame the coach for not recognizing the QB's strengths and weaknesses, and consistently putting him in a position to fail.

That's what's happening to Dunn. He's stuck at #5, where his ability to get on base is wasted, and his inability to hit with RISP is magnified.

 
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