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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Here's something to debate

Wayne Krivsky told Paul Daugherty the other day that it took patience to build a team like the Colorado Rockies. The converse is it takes money -- lots of money-- to build a team like the Boston Red Sox.

Which route would you like to see the Reds take? They're not going to spend like the sox, of course. But should they go for a quick fix or be patient?


33 Comments:

at 9:56 PM Anonymous Stan said...

Its not an either or. Obviously, the Reds can't spend like the Bosox. But saying just be patient has not gotten this team anywhere. Being patient to do something similar to the Rockies ASSUMES the Reds will scout, draft,sign, and develop enough good young players to come up at the SAME time.I don't have that much confidence in Krivsky and all of the new baseball operations people he has recently brought in. Obrien may have socially been a zero, but his 2 drafts appear to have been successful. Were we patient with him? You have to have that mix of a lot of good young players with a few good veterans sprinkled in. Just saying be patient without full confidence in the people running the show for a long period of time assumes WAY too much for this Reds fan.

 
at 10:06 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

With a 58 year old manager with a three year contract, they must go for a quick fix. Not only for the mangers' situation but for the fans of the Reds. They waited and being patient long enough


Billy from LEXINGTON,KY

 
at 10:09 PM Blogger Don said...

Two years ago Castellini said he wanted to win and win now. Krivksy now says it requires patience. Is Krivsky spinning a little bit to protect his job as he will soon enter his final season of his contract?

I just find these two points of view from the CEO and the GM to be somewhat conflicting.

 
at 10:22 PM Anonymous Ray said...

I've been patient long enough. And it has yet to pay off.

Remember when the rebuilding was supposed to be done and the Reds were going to hit their stride the same time the new stadium opened up in 2003? I'm still waiting

 
at 11:09 PM Blogger Chris at Redleg Nation said...

Stan's right, there's no reason to choose one or the other. Krivsky better have a long-term plan in full force (he'll never say), but the current Reds club has close to enough talent to win the Central next year. Add a starter (moderate expense in either cash or trade) and a bullpen (low cash outlay - please no trades), and you're in business.

 
at 11:12 PM Blogger Gene in WV said...

Quick fix is OK, IF it presents itself in a way that does not destroy the ground that has already been plowed.

Its OK to give up some good stuff, but not too much. Don't sell the farm in hopes of a spring fling.

 
at 11:21 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

John,
I'd have to go for the build for the future. It makes no sense to go out and delve into the free-agent market of middle of the roads players. I would like to draft/trade talent to develop. Once they become eligible for free angency let them walk and be ready to have another player take their spot.

I think what you have witnessed with Cleveland,Oakland, Colorado and Minnesota is the way for this team to survive.

It seems Bob & Wayne might think there is a place in the middle of those two ways to build a team that doesn't exsist. I hope they realize this isn't the way to go.

I think they are afraid of turning off the fan base and rightly so,but is it better to suffer a few years of growing pains for more years of competitive teams? And yes we have been going through some suffering but i'd rather have long term success.

 
at 11:52 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, the drawback to building thru developement is that roughly evry 7 years, you have to start all over again because the players you've brought up will got thru a couple rounds of arbitration and then hit free agency, at wich time it's very possible they'll all demand major money. Way back when (1982, I think), the Royals were able to sign George Brett, Willie Wilson and Dan Quisenbury to "lifetime" contracts, wherein they were given investment opportunities and real estate to keep them in Kansas City as long as they wanted to stay. This translated to 10 years for Quisenbury, 11 years for Wilson and Brett stayed till 95.
You think any team, even the Yankees or Red Sox, would even consider a deal like that today? No chance.
So let's look 7 years into the Reds future and assume the best case scenarios for each player. Bailey, multiple time 20-game winner, Bruce averages 40 HR a year, Hamilton 35 HR, 90RBI per year, Phillips wins gold gloves evry year and a .290 average. So we could be looking at 4 players who get paid $12 million evry year. And this isn't even counting Aaron Harang's current deal and the rumored multi-year deal Dunn might get. Not only would the Reds have to out do the Big Red Machine from now till 2015, they'll have to make as much money as the Yankees and Red Sox combined.
So in the end, most of these developed players will be cut loose for financial reasons. Some will go free agent and bring next to nothing in return. Some will be traded and there would be the chance of getting another Majewski. Ultimately, someone will end up saying, "we're rebuilding".

So definitely a mix of strategies is best. for evry, say, 4 good players you try to keep, be willing to trade one away. This is another reason why it would be a good idea to trade Encarnacion this winter. He would get the most in return. Throw him in a package deal and the Reds could get a good starter in return. Mark my words

 
at 12:54 AM Blogger Ray McNab said...

Hey guys, its a combination of both with a lot of luck. Just take a look at this past year's
major surprises....if Mr. Rusty Dusty does his "Johnny B." bad managing act, the whole decision to bring him to Cincy will go down in flames anyway in about a year and a half from the start of the 2008 season. Dump the over thirty non-producers and stay with the with up and coming youngsters that did so well the second half of 2007. Bring Homer Bailey along slowly (but keep in the bigs!!) and give Joey Votto the season start at first base. It should be his to lose! He certainly proved that much once he was given a chance to play on an everyday basis. Don't trade away the core of big stat producers; yes Adam Dunn belongs long term with the Reds despite all of the strikeouts and those occasional fielding goofs. God knows, he is trying to get better!

 
at 1:03 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the Reds are a lot closer than most people give them credit for. Jerry Narron, Pete MacKanin and one would have to think Dusty Baker all believed or said that this team is very very close to contending. I believe we are just one starting pitcher and a couple good bullpen arms away and we have PLENTY of trading chips, ie. Gonzalez, Encarnacion, Griffey, Dunn, Hamilton, Freel. With Jay Bruce, Brandond Phillips and Joey Votto, this team has a young nucleus for years to come. So to answer the question, the Reds can do a quick fix now, trade for pitching AND continue to stock the minor leagues with good young taleny by drafting pitchers and scouring Latin America.

 
at 7:35 AM Anonymous Sam said...

Stans original comment has some merit. Even Colorado has 17 mil per year Todd Helton(who doesn't produce like he used to)and a few other veterans. John, didn't Obriens 2 drafts net the likes of Bailey, Cueto, and Bruce to name a few?

 
at 8:01 AM Blogger John Fay said...

Bailey and Bruce were drafted under OB. Cuero was a nondrafted free agent from the D.R. I think he predates OB. Signed by the departed Johnny Almaraz, however.

 
at 8:54 AM Anonymous The Beer Man said...

John, how does the Reds spending on player development compare with other teams? (especially compared to Cleveland and Colorado). Do we have the proper number of scouts? Is our presence in Latin America big enough?

 
at 9:00 AM Anonymous mikec said...

Remember when Reds ownership/management told us to be patient and wait for when the new stadium opens in 2003? They sold us that line for 3-4 years.

Fans will wait patiently. IF they feel ownership is heading in the right direction. I feel like with Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Hamilton and Harang the Reds have a good, young core that's worth being patient with.

But if they didn't have those guys, what's the point of being patient?

 
at 9:07 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am tired of Reds fans being so dumb and so incompetent. You trash Krivisky and Bob when they have only gave there best effort on everything. Look at the stadium and the revenue Bob is trying to bring in from that. Is he pocketing it? Doesn't seem like it does it.

Oh yeah the simple solution is to trade trade trade. What if no one wants to trade? Of course everyone being a GM on this board knows what it takes and we should easily get a number 1 starter for EE right? Get real. Stop being so nieve.

Krivisky has done wonders. His only bust may be Stubbs but there is still time. He has gotten Hamilton, Cantu, Burton, Philips, Keppinger for....are you ready for this? NOTHING!!! He has only been here two years and sorry if the first guy he drafted didn't make it up yet. I believe it usually takes 3-5 years for players to make it through the minors. And that is just high draft picks.

So stop whinning. This isn't the team from 3 years ago. A new owner, a new GM, a new manager. Don't let Carl's time here hinder into them!!

 
at 10:26 AM Anonymous CHEVIOT SPORTS AUTHORITY said...

Let me see know, Bowden promised a great team by the time the new ballpark opened. NOTHING! (although the main problem with Bowden was Lindner). Marge fielded winners.

Carl Lindner was a very poor excuse for an owner. Thank heavens he sold out.

I think Castellini is a guy with plenty of money who wants to win now but doesn't have a clue about how to go about it. Looks to me like he is willing to spend the money, as evidenced by the Baker salary and the money he has allowed Krivsky to waste on ludicrous signings and contract extensions. Perhaps if he hired a professional GM and allowed him to run the baseball end, we could return a winning tradition to Cincinnati Baseball. QUICKLY!
The Reds can't spend like Chicago, Boston, LA or NY but the small market crap is just that: 'crap'. They have plenty of money to be competitive and I have not heard Castellini complaining about being broke.

TIME TO WIN NOW! I heard that Castellini was an impatient man when he took over. I think if Wayne's World doesn't show a great improvement next season, it will be his last.

PS: Dave Concepcion would make a great coach if he were interested.

 
at 10:29 AM Anonymous MONEY MIKE said...

I dont think you can put one over the other completely, but rather you need to find that just right point with a mix of the two. Right now we have some young talent, but we need to get some expierence to guide these young men. So yeah, spend some money for some expierence, but the purity of baseball lies in developing talent. Although it appears this purity is far gone teams like the rockies, d-backs, former marlins teams have proved that developing players works. We probably wont spend so I guess we will have to develop.

 
at 11:38 AM Blogger John Fay said...

beer man: I don't know how they compare. My guess is upper end. But they get outsoenr on bonuses to Latin players.

 
at 11:38 AM Blogger John Fay said...

beer man: I don't know how they compare. My guess is upper end. But they get outsoenr on bonuses to Latin players.

 
at 11:49 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

The real question is what model is Krivsky's focus (build & patience), and, with 1 year left on his contract, will he be allowed to continue that philosophy, or will Castellini and Baker push him out to "raid the roster" for veterans over youth ?

This seems like the wrong marriage between owner & GM, and now manager & GM, too !

 
at 12:54 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

WHY DONT YOU GUYS QUIT DEBATING EVERY NUANCE OF THE REDS.

THEY ARE WHAT THEY ARE.. A VERY MARGINAL TEAM

THEY HAVE HAD HOW MANY WINNING SEASONS IN THE PAST 18 YEARS?

IF THEY GO OUT AND SECURE A QUALITY STARTER AND A COUPLE OF RELIEVERS, I WILL START BELIEVING CASTELLINI.

UNTIL THEN...ITS ALL TALK..NOTHING MORE

WHY EVEN CONTEMPLATE, DISCUSS, OR WORRY?

ACTUALLY THERE IS NOTHING TO DEBATE

 
at 1:27 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agree with 10:49 anon, but the even bigger issue to me is, IS Krivsky the right guy to have the patience to build from within with. If so, give him an extension and be patient. If not, bring a G.M. in here that ownership has confidence in to be patient with and give him 4 or 5 years. Patience and building from within only works if you have the right people in place.

 
at 1:58 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

If they want to be patient make sure they lower prices and give back the money taxpayers spent on the stadium. The people gave them a nice playpen and the Reds have delivered nothing.

 
at 2:34 PM Blogger Mike said...

I think the Detroit Tigers show that an organization can both win now and win for the future without a Red Sox payroll. The draft system is flawed: many of the most talented players often slip to late in the first round because of their contract demands. The Tigers routinely bend the rules and spend more on draft pick bonuses than MLB wants them to.

Larger bonuses have brought the Tigers some of the top young players in the game. Guys drafted only a couple years (Verlander, Miller, Maybin) are making an impact now. This year, the Tigers got the best prep pitcher in the draft even though they had the 27th pick. If the Reds acted similarly, this team wouldn't need a 5 year plan, a 2 year plan would be fine.


Question for John: Everyone is talking about the leadership Troy Tulowitzki brings to the Rockies. I'm a big fan of both Griffey and Dunn, but neither are the take-charge type. Could any of the Reds top prospects bring this sort of personality to the team?

 
at 3:36 PM Anonymous MONEY MIKE said...

Dear anonymous-

You said the following: "WHY DONT YOU GUYS QUIT DEBATING EVERY NUANCE OF THE REDS."

For one who is not interested in debating,then why in the heck are you posting on a blog thats point is to discuss the REDS. Go to the Bengals blog to discuss something else if you would like.

Those that post here are passionate about the Reds. One can say how much they love the Reds or how much they hate everything about them. So dont complain if your posting on the same site.

 
at 3:54 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know everyone hated to hear this, but I don't think that the Reds are that far away. It is all about arms. I'd love for us to pick pitchers in the first 10 rounds for the next 5 years and see how the record improves the next 10 years after that. My hunch is that would work. Home grown young pitching is a lot cheeper than going out and trying to buy it on the open market.

 
at 4:36 PM Blogger Duke Danbury said...

In order for the Reds to be like the Red Sox they have to have an owner with very deep pockets. They do not.

In order for the Reds to be like the Rockies they have to have a GM that is good. They do not.

They spend money on an older manager and have a GM with one year left on his contract which doesn't make any sense at all.

 
at 6:01 PM Blogger JerBear said...

The Tigers are kind of a mix of both philosophies. They've done a good job of building through their minors, but they have some bigtime free agents on their team like Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez.

I think fans will be patient if they see the Reds going with youth even if it takes some time. Hey we've waited 12 years since the last playoff appearance, I think we could wait a little longer.

But if this team goes in the veteran direction, and contiues to win 70-80 games a year for the next 2-3 years baseball will all but die in Cincy.

People say Baker prefers veterans and that worries me a bit, but I doubt he's had this much young talent at his previous jobs either...

He probably didn't have any minor league players of the year in the organization such as Jay Bruce while at San Fran and Chicago.

And Encarnacion is a staple at third. Barring a trade or something, you can't move him really.

What they do at first base will probably signal what direction the Reds take.

 
at 6:51 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

AS many have said you must be patient and have good luck.

Look at the Reds from the 60s when the young guys took over or the Tigers from 3+ years ago. Young talent takes time.

The only way to grade Krisky is his drafts and the coaches he hires. I don't remember if he was around for the draft is 2006 so you have 1 draft (which was pretty good... a catcher... finally).

This year will be a good year to judge him on because you can see how the young guys that O'Brien and him have drafted are fairing.

after all that, spending doesn't win you championships... just ask the Yankees (2002-2007 drought with all that money spent). So develop and have patience... but get 1 starter and 2 relievers so we can win the divsion this year!

Adrian

 
at 8:47 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's hoping they plant Votto at first. The next thing I'd like to see is Bruce force his way into a starting spot. But I don't have the answer on who's position he would take. I'd hate to see any current OF go but if they must......

Next I would hope Bailey would take a nice step foward and become a dependable 3rd starter. I would hope the Reds can find a pitching coach who will tutor the young ones the art of getting ahead in the count.

Next I would like Wayne to be pro-active in drafting pitching in next years draft. I believe there is enough bats that will be coming through but not enough arms to help out.

I'd like to explain to Anon 11:54 that we discuss things about the Reds because we are fans with serious passion for them, Just like he has a passion for yelling his/her displeasure that people enjoy this. But I figure he's/she's trolling other boards and post to scream at people to fill some sort of whacked out void in his/her life. To each his/her own I suppose.....

 
at 12:19 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

All this yelling is about all we can do! That's why we do it. We just hope there's the outside chance Krivsky or Castellini might be reading and will think, OK, if this many fans are complaining about so and so, maybe we should do this. The chances are slim of course. But what else have we got to do durring the off-season?

This being said, I want evryone to join me in loudly complaining about the rotten job Dick Pole did with the pitchers last year and urge his immediate replacement

 
at 10:06 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

People are forgeting That Dunn is only 27

 
at 11:19 AM Blogger Hugh D. Pohl said...

What ridiculous signings and extensions has Kriv made? One bad trade- that's all I remember- and a number of brilliant signings.

 
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