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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Thursday, December 13, 2007

Bedard update

While we wait for the Mitchell Report, here's an update:

The Reds remain hopeful that they can land Erik Bedard but not as hopeful as they were last week. Let's say 50-50. The Orioles continue to insist on Jay Bruce. The Reds aren't going to give him up. I'm not sure how or if the Miguel Tejada trade will affect this. The Orioles did get Luke Scott, a left-handed hitting outfielder, in the trade.

Even if the Reds can't land Bedard, they're dead set on having a proven starter in the mix. Oakland's Dan Haren is the best available. But Billy Beane is asking a lot -- probably too much for the Reds' tastes. That leaves Cliff Lee and the second-tier free agents. Dusty Baker told some people at the Winter Meetings that he would like to have Mark Prior, who the Cubs non-tendered. He's a huge risk because of his medical history. But, if he's healthy, the reward would be large.

Carlos Silva remains on unsigned. I'd be surprised if the Reds would lay out that kind of coin. But, then again, I didn't think they'd pay $46 million for Francisco Cordero.


at 10:30 AM Anonymous Mike said...

Why not Silva, any idea what he is looking to make? The description I have heard most often sounds exactly like what we need.

at 10:45 AM Anonymous Matt H. said...

If you can sign Prior to a minimum salary, I say go for it. He's not going to cost you that much if he goes back on the DL, and if he stays healthy you might have hit the jackpot. This is similar to taking a chance on Josh Hamilton. If Prior can't come back as a starter, maybe he can go easy on the arm by coming out of the bullpen a la Kerry Wood. He has the stuff.

at 10:56 AM Anonymous J-Diggety said...

Mike, I expect Silva to sign a 4 year deal worth somewhere between 38 and 44 million.

at 11:01 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Silva will probably get 4/48 or something like that. He is the definition of mediocrity, and the Reds shouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. And yes, I am aware of his ground ball rates.

at 11:13 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, I just say the reds non-tendered 2 players including one who didn't play at all last season. Now why did the Reds release Cantu instead of one of those 2. That doesn't make any sense to me.

at 11:15 AM Anonymous WD Gann said...

If the Reds do acquire Bedard, what are the odds they can sign him beyond 2 seasons? Are the Reds willing to pony up $17-$18 million annually for one pitcher?

at 11:26 AM Anonymous redfuture said...

Do you think Wayne made a run a Randy Wolf? He signed with Padres for a $4.75M base. He can tack on $4.25 for 30 GS & 200 IP, but that's ok. That's a bargain in this market. Do you think it was a matter of the GABP reputation?

at 11:44 AM Blogger Al in Ohio said...

Isn't saying the chances are 50/50 the same as saying "We might get him, we might not"?

at 11:51 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Prior is worth the risk. If he is healthy he is a horse and the Reds keep Bailey and Cueto. If he pulls up lame, so what? Cueto just gets here a little sooner.

No way, no how, should they trade Bruce. Don't care how much the fans want a winner NOW. Bruce is the future.

at 11:52 AM Anonymous J-Diggety said...

Wolfe is an extreme flyball pitcher

at 11:56 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Neal Boortz just read the Mitchell list. Don't know how he got it or if it is the straight scoop. Both Boone brothers are on it.

at 12:09 PM Anonymous Dontradeanypitchingprospects! said...

I don't think Adam Dunn would be too happy if the Reds signed Silva, as he probably would not feel safe.
Not sure but didn't Silva pitch for the Louisville Bats?

at 12:17 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

prior is supposed to be on the list too

at 12:31 PM Anonymous BigRedMachine said...

I'd rather give Bedard 17-18M/yr two years from now, than sign Silva for 12M/yr now. Bedard is infinitely better.

I don't think we'll get Prior. I doubt he wants to be subjected to Dusty's over-use again.

I still think we can get Bedard without Bruce. Add Votto and Bailey with one more prospect and I can't see the Orioles holding onto their Bruce demands. Get it done.

at 1:09 PM Anonymous buford said...

the reds should pursue prior...a lot of upside and definitely worth the risk

at 1:20 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

This whole thing about Erik Bedard is driving me crazy. He has only started 30 games once in his career and has never thrown more than 200 innings. He is injury prone and, except for last year, he is a .500 pitcher.

at 1:20 PM Blogger Dan H said...

I would not trade Jay Bruce period. Bedard or Haren for Bailey,Votto ,and 1 or 2 other prospects yes, so long as you can lock them up for more than 2 years. Carlos Silva not worth the dollars being thrown at him. I would take a risk with Prior so long as the contract is an incentive laden type deal.

at 1:23 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

I hear that Stanton is on 'the list". Does any of this give teams grounds to terminate contracts, especially ugly ones like that?

at 2:31 PM Blogger hamiltonfred said...

They should get Bedard and immediately sign him to an extension at today's rates.Keep Bruce, try to get them to take Freel.Prior, is a risk worth taking.Sign him to 1 or 2M base with incentives. Make him the 5th starter to go easy on his arm, limit him to 5 innings or 100 pitches and that's it this year, maybe an inning or two of Mop up between 5th starter starts.Be careful and dont blow his arm out. Let him get stronger.Baker tends to overpitch his starteds (ie. see Prior)Forget Silva, he is Eric Milton in disguise...

at 7:04 PM Blogger cincikid said...

The O's have to be crazy not to accept a trade, like Bailey, Votto, and another prospect for Bedard. I say, forget their demands for Bruce. This is a guy that is coming off a career year. His stock will probably never be higher. Now that the Dodgers have pulled Kemp from any trade talks, they are not going to find a sweeter deal than two top 50 prospects and another top 10 prospect on a team. They are not ready to contend in their division. And last but not least he just refused to sign an extension for you. I say pull the offer. Try Haren. If that don't work we'll role with what we got. And that ain't as bad as most people think. There are other pitchers on the market. Colon, Fogg, Jennings, Prior, Leiber.

at 7:56 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

On Bedard: I think the O's are steadfast in their desire for a cornerstone type of OF who is young, inexpensive and has a super future. They have several solid young pitcher's but have little in the way of future offense outside of Nick Markakis. So they seem to be leaning more towards the deal that get's them the best OF prospect and then they will find the right other components from the same team.

Right now the deal from Seattle is topping ours for that singular reason. The M's seem to be willing to trade Adam Jones who isn't on the level of Bruce but fits the bill of what they are looking for and since Bruce isn't currently available they will likely go that way. Probably a deal something very close to this.

CF Adam Jones (RHH)
SP Brandon Morrow (RHP)
RP George Sherrill (LH) (Not a prospect)
plus another prospect which is up in the air. My wild guess says if Seattle gives up the 1st 3 the last would be 2B Yung Chi-Chen at best.

Not a deal that would trump any of ours if we included Bruce (won't and shouldn't happen IMO). Problem is the only other major league ready, inexpensive OF who has real talent is soon to be 27 yr old Hamilton and that age coupled with his history of injuries plus drug abuse probably looks like too much of a risk to Baltimore.

On Haren: The current alledged deal for Haren is a mere fraction of the type of deal we could offer.

According to the East Valley Tribune, a pair of prospects -- second baseman Emilio Bonifacio and left-handed pitcher Brett Anderson -- coupled with centerpiece Carlos Gonzalez is the possible deal. With perhaps another prospect being discussed, that part is my speculation. Which if true wouldn't be a whole lot different than Drew Stubbs, Chris Valaika and Travis Wood.

So to say we couldn't ante up in any deal for Haren/Blanton is simply hyperbole for anyone who say different. Of course you have to take into consideration that Billy Beane isn't neccessarily the type of GM who instantly get's caught up in the hype and has a keen eye for talent. So he will only make a good deal. That said he does seem to have a decent working relationship with Wayne Krivsky. But on the other hand he doesn't feel the need to trade either Haren or Blanton unless he is blown away.

Not only that if you trade for either you may wanna go the Blanton route as he is a far better fit for this park. and if you need confirmation of that just take a look at how good he is at keeping the ball in the park and on the ground and add to that although he is not a strikeout pitcher he get's his fair share (he avg's about 6 a game, Harang 9, Haren 8) but again he keeps the ball in the park better than either and by a lot.

He's kinda a poor man's Brandon Webb (who happens to be his former college teammate and fellow native Kentuckian).

If we offered the A's Drew Stubbs and Travis Wood he's probably ours easy. And we get to keep Bailey, Cueto, Bruce, Votto, Hamilton, Encarnacion etc.

On Stanton: His #'s alone last year are enough to warrant cutting him so the Mitchell report ought to be icing on the cake to swallow that '08 salary if need be (and probably is).

You can also add Majewski and Castro to that list none of them will ever likely be any better than they were last yr (Or in Castro's case, the last few years to be kind).

at 8:52 AM Anonymous mikec said...

BigRedMachine do you think Prior blames Dusty? I highly doubt that. Dusty and Prior still talk. If you blamed a man for overusing you and ruining your career basically would you still talk to him if you didn't have to? I wouldn't. I think Prior comes to the Reds BECAUSE of Dusty.

at 12:23 PM Anonymous firefly118 said...

If WK reads these posts, and I have to believe he does, its the Enquirer come on. I say do the deal for either Bedard (1) or Haren (2). 1 in the hand is better than 2 in the minors... You never know who will pan out, and history says only 1 of 5 top prospects ever contribute at the major league level. With one of these pitchers, you have a proven major league pitcher who will help us to about 10 more wins a season (not by himself, but what he brings to the entire team). Deal as best as you can, but in the end send Bruce and Bailey or Encarnacion, Hamilton and Bailey there and get us a proven pitcher. If not we are looking at another loosing season, and it doesn't matter if the prospects are in the majors or not. Giving up 6 runs a game from the pitching is not going to win the division, and pitchers like Silva and the second tier guys are what we have brought in for years (Milton...etc) and look what it has done......

at 5:11 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why don't the reds try for Joe Blanton. He would be a lot cheaper than Bedard or Haren and would be a decent 3rd starter. Plus we wouldn't have to sell the farm to get him, probably a couple prospects but not Bailey, Votto, Hamiliton, etc.

at 5:29 PM Blogger HealthDoc said...

No offense to the rest of you, but anonymous anonymous has it right-trade for a guy like Blanton who can get the job done and sign a free agent like Lieber. Giving up Votto and another top tier player plus Bailey does not make sense in the long run. Bedard will only make a 5 game difference in the W & l column this year, and you will have given up your first baseman who can step in now and produce along with Hatte-not to mention what he can give us in the coming years since Hatte will only be here another year or so. Bailey can win 10 games this year and many more down the line. So if you give him up for a 15 game winner you gain 5 games AND you gave up Votto who is a player. If you give up Bailey, you give up what you do not need-otfield depth and strength...i.e. Hamilton or others. We do not have depth at 1st to give, and yes I would not give up Bruce. We can win with some shrewd transactions, rather than going with the hype of a name in Bedard. Would Beane make that trade?

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