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From news of the day to news of the weird, John Fay provides a glimpse of what it’s like to cover the Cincinnati Reds

John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Affeldt agrees to contract

Left-hander Jeremy Affeldt and the Reds have agreed to a contract. Affeldt will come to town next week to have a physical. If he passes, he's a Red.

Ken Rosenthal, of foxsports.com, reported that the deal is for one-year and $3 million.

Affeldt, 28, went 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA with the Colorado Rockies last year. He was used as reliever exclusively as a reliever by the Rockies, but 42 of his 286 major league appearances are as a starter.

Affeldt only gave up 47 hits and three home runs in the 59 innings for the Rockies last year.

I haven't been able to reach Wayne Krivsky but you've got to think Affeldt will compete for a spot in the rotation.


140 Comments:

at 3:44 PM Blogger Z-train said...

John What do you think of this? do you think he will be the 4th starter?
then if he is then who would be the 5th?

Zac Utah

 
at 3:53 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

John,
I think this is a good pick up... We need a lefty as a starter... He pitched with the Rockies so he knows how to pitch in a ballpark that gives up homeruns... We need all the arms in the world down for ST... So it was worth the 3 mill... Do you think it was a good move John?

 
at 3:56 PM Blogger Jeff Lehner said...

Good pickup, I think. Looks like the Reds are going to have a hell of a battle in spring training for the number 4 and five spots in the rotation.

 
at 4:03 PM Blogger John Fay said...

I like it. He's left-handed and had a 3.51 ERA. Makes more sense to me to role the dice with someone like him than the FA starters out there.

 
at 4:03 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

keep him in the pen.

get rid of stanton asap.

we still have no sure bet for the rotation.

still, a good move if nothing but for bullpen depth. yea, he's started before but it wasn't pretty. remember danny graves? don't mess with success.

 
at 4:18 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like it.
No risk, high reward.
Outside of Bedard or Blanton, I cant give you a better solution and maybe their price tag was just too high. With all the negativity, what if the Reds scouts grade Cueto and Bailey as future No 1 and N0 2 starters ala Beckett and Mario Soto. Krivsky has said all along that you build an organization through scouting/draft/development. Trading away your organziational crown jewels just as they reach the "bigs" runs counterintuitive to his philosophy. He's a man of his words. This is the best shortterm fix.Nice job Krivsky and Jocketty.

 
at 4:18 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I started on a thread on the Cincinnati.com messageboard in Nov. suggesting we sign him! I think it is a good signing as well.

My question is, since we have a full 40-man roster with the Drew Anderson waiver claim, who gets cut loose?

 
at 4:21 PM Anonymous rodney wilkerson said...

John,

What pitches does he have?
I remember him as a big power arm when he came up with the Royals

 
at 4:24 PM Anonymous rodney wilkerson said...

looking forward to WK haters comments on the move...now we can guess who will be taken off the 40 man.

 
at 4:25 PM Anonymous Jason said...

I like the signing for the money. However, I hope this isn't simply the 2008 version of Kirk Saarloos (ironically, the same age as Affeldt).

 
at 4:26 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Throws 93. Has a big time curve. I'm not sure of his third pitch.

 
at 4:30 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

This is an extremely wise signing. I can't believe it, I was just looking at the list of FA SPs and RPs this morning and had decided that he would be best! I love it. Now I don't have to yearn for Guardado. I expect him to be in the bullpen if all goes as planned but he could certainly start if something goes awry. Great, great signing.

 
at 4:34 PM Anonymous Jim in AL said...

I like the pick up. JA can start and pitch out of the pen. If the young arm look ready in in Spring Training, then this just strenghtens the pen.

John, I enjoy your blog. As a Reds fan living in AL, it is hard to keep up with the Reds. Keep up the good work.

 
at 4:34 PM Blogger Dan said...

I like it too! If memory serves, he was the youngest of all free agents too (28), which is great. Still a chance of some improvement.

At a glance of his stats...

--I like his low HR rate a LOT.

--I like the fact that he's almost equally good vs. lefties and righties (he is NOT just a situational lefty).

--I don't like seeing that his stats as a starter (5.41 ERA, .827 opponent OPS) are a lot worse than as a reliever (4.21 ERA, .707 opponent OPS).

Still, overall, I like this signing a lot.

 
at 4:37 PM Blogger Dan said...

By the way, as an aside, I think that there would be great value in having a reliever or two be true LONG men -- as in, good for 100-120 IP out of the pen. (Sort of the Scott Sullivan role... able to be good for 2-inning or even 3-inning stints.)

I think Affeldt and Cueto make excellent candidates for that role.

 
at 4:41 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

John, Any word on the status/eta of Bobby Livingston?
Tim W in SC

 
at 4:56 PM Blogger John Fay said...

He had shoudler surgery Sept. 9. I'd be surprised if he pitches in the big leagues this year.

 
at 5:01 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let me save you the effort of talking to WK. He'll say something like "We just felt it was a great opportunity to add another quality arm to try to make our team better. He has experience in both roles, so we'll leave it up to Dusty to put all the guys on the roster in the positions that will give us the best chance to win."

I think JA found himself last year as a RP. He didn't go longer than 2.0IP or 35 pitches last year, and I would think the Reds preference should be to use him in the pen. Compared to Riske and Linebrink signings its still a good value.

With the importance GMs put on RPs now, could this lead to a prospect starter + a big league RP (Burton, Bray, Weathers?)swap for a SP? Don't forget the Angels have 6 starters.

 
at 5:17 PM Anonymous Robert said...

John,
He's a good candidate for the rotation, but do you see the Reds signing him for next year if he does well, or do they go with the younger lefty in Livingston (assuming he comes back from surgury the same). Just want to know your thoughts.

 
at 5:23 PM Blogger Jon said...

Irrational Offering of the Day:

Clueless Krivsky is a weakling, he needed Walt to hold his hand! If Affeldt can make the rotation, I think we know who's idea it REALLY was.

WAKE UP CINCY, WALT JOCKETTY IS THE SECOND COMING!!!!

 
at 5:35 PM Blogger Grizzlyfox said...

The Reds 40 man roster was filled before this signing. With Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle, Bray, Burton, Coffey, Cordero, Harang, Majewski, Stanton, Valenzuela, Volquez, Weathers, Ross, Valentin, Castro, Encarnacion, Gonzales, Hatteberg, Keppinger, Phillips, Votto, Dunn, Griffey, Freel, and Hopper already on the 40 and expected to be on the 25. However that's 26 guys. Throw in Affeldt and that's 27. Throw in Bruce and that's 28, with 2 guys coming off the 40. Something's gotta give before the season.

 
at 5:48 PM Anonymous aj said...

John,

I like this pick up. This defintitely strengthens the pitching staff. Do you think this could increase our chanches of landing a Bedard, Kazmir, or starting pitcher of that magnitude?

 
at 5:52 PM Anonymous Eric Leisure said...

John, any word on where Affeldt stands as far as the competition for the rotation? Does have have an edge over Belisle and the young guys or is he just another name to throw into the mix competing for the 4 and 5 spots?

 
at 6:04 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

Excuse me for gushing. He made 7 appearances during the Rockies frantic rush to the playoffs and never allowed a run in any. In fact he gave up only 1 hit and 1 walk during that time. This guy has big time composure. This addition makes me feel good for Junior since he now has a legitimate shot to see his first postseason with Reds. They just need to limit Griffey to 5 games a week to keep him fresh and uninjured going into October.

 
at 6:14 PM Anonymous PredsidentJohnAllenJr. said...

Grizzlyfox, the Reds won't carry thirteen pitchers. Maybe the Reds are looking to make a major trade or adding addition pitchers make the Reds able to make a trade at the end of spring training.
John, when can the Reds add a player to the 60 days disabled list?

 
at 6:33 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grizzlyfox,

you are EXACTLY right... Someone has to come off for Affeldt, and we still have to remember that Jay Bruce isn't on the 40-man...

John,
See, with Bruce not on the 40-man currently, and he obviously will be sometime before the season starts, why would they add someone like a Drew Anderson? He can't fit in anywhere on the team...

I think RYAN FREEL gets traded...Bruce takes his spot on the 40-man...

but then you have the problem of when Bruce and Affeldt get added, we still have about 28 who we would think have a darn good chance at making the club....

 
at 6:34 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

i watched him pitch his years in KC - he was part of the reason their bullpen/starters were so bad - hopefully he has improved since then.

Pat in KC

 
at 6:36 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Krivsky wouldn't talk about Affeldt at all. Wouldn't even confrim the agreement. My guess Affeldt competes for the rotation. They've got Bray, Coutlangus and Stanton as lefties in the bullpen.

 
at 6:37 PM Anonymous Deaner said...

I like this move a lot. I live in Kansas and got to see Affeldt pitch with the KC Royals, and meet him on the team's winter caravan. He's got great stuff, a very versatile pitcher, and a excellent person.

 
at 6:43 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

good deal, nice to see the reds are spending some money.

 
at 6:43 PM Blogger John Fay said...

The 40-man roster will work itself out.

Livingston could go on the 60-day. You've got Richie Gardner, Alexander Smit, Ryan Hanigan, Chris Dickerson, Jeff Fiorentino and Drew Anderson on the 40-man. Nothing against any of them but there's space to be found.

 
at 7:03 PM Blogger Grizzlyfox said...

It wasn't so much a question about the 40, as it was the 25. And I wasn't even thinking about Cooter on the 25. That's 4 guys that have to be eliminated if you want to add Bruce. I'd say Cooter, Hatteberg(If Kepp takes reps at first in spring, if not, then Freel or Hopper, as they are two of the most similar guys), Valenzuela(but then we'd lose him w/o seeing him pitch), and Coffey, who I'm also not sure if he can be sent down w/o the chance of losing him.

 
at 7:09 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey John. Speaking of Richie Gardner, are the Reds ever going to give this guy a shot at the bigs? How about spring training? I remember reading about him in some old Reds Reports a few years ago, and how he was so highly regarded when they drafted him. I know he was injured and returned after having surgery, but does he look like somebody who could help them? They already traded two young arms last year for Cantu, so they must have felt those guys couldn't help any time soon. Jim in AZ

 
at 7:30 PM Anonymous redheat said...

get off the getting Bedard, Kazmir, or starting pitcher of that magnitude train people!!!!!!!!!!

just look at what we KNOW it will take to get Bedard. being said, Kazmir would take more.

just think things out before playing GM and making the freel and stanton for Kazmir like trades.

 
at 7:37 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Gardner was good last year until he got to Triple-A (4-5, 5.71). I think he's got a chance. But I'd be surprised if he pitched in the bigs this season before Sept.

 
at 8:35 PM Blogger Daniel said...

Fantastic signing. This is way better than going 2 years, 12 million for Benson. If the Reds were forced to pitch two out of three - Volquez, Bailey or Cueto - they'd put those kids in a bad situation. If they were getting pounded or injured they'd need to stick with them for sure numbers. But now Affedlt is insurance and won't force the Reds to abuse the young arms. Plus if he doesn't work out as a starter, it's an easy transition for him to the 'pen which is something you can't do with a higher price tag guy like Milton, Benson, Livan, Lieber, etc.

To be honest I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds take another flyer on a guy of this make. Although I could have egg on my face come May when Affedlt turns out to be the second coming of Kirk Sar-lose.

 
at 9:01 PM Blogger Dude said...

This guy has been out there all winter, do you think this guy was spotted by Jocketty?

 
at 9:07 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

If he is used in long releif only it may be OK, but if anyone thinks this guy ia a #4 starter then they are living in la-la land. Take it for what it is, a signing to boost up the long releif. Don't even think about this guy as a regular starter, and think we're going to compete.

 
at 9:39 PM Anonymous Red Faced said...

Excellent!! I like this type of move. Bring more competition to spring, let's see who wants it badly enough. Gives us many options for moving some of the young guys back down if they aren't working out or up to the big club and into the rotation with Affeldt moving into the bullpen. Plus he's a lefty and he pitched well last year down the stretch. Gives the teams experience, options and competition at a fairly low $ rate.

 
at 9:46 PM Blogger Jason said...

I don't have a problem with the move. However, can someone please explain to me how a guy on his third or fourth organization with the majority of his appearances
(244 of 286)out of the bullpen, is a legitimate candidate for the starting rotation! I say keep him in the pen.

Jason from Charlotte

 
at 10:01 PM Blogger Dave from Louisville said...

Love this move. Great job Krivsky!!!! This is a perfect example of how the Red's tight lipped clubhouse is really smart. I guarantee that 5-8 clubs would love to match or better this contact.

3 quality major league pitchers this off season. GO REDS!!!

GOII CARDINALS!!

 
at 10:14 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can vote on the Affeldt signing here.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/19/reds-sign-jeremy-affeldt/

 
at 11:51 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, Afeldt is better than Stanton, Coffey, Weathers, and Majewski (the Catastrophe Quartet that helps keep the Reds losers).

And he'll turn 29 in June, so if he can improve at all on 2007's 3.51 ERA, instead of reverting to 2006's bloated ERA...then he'll help the Reds. Those 13 games he saved in 2004 are intriguing, looks like our new conjoined-GM picked up some badly needed Cordero insurance.

Thanks Jocketty! You're worth the money already!

I can't wait to see a Reds team without the catastrophe quartet. An owner with guts would simply cut all 4 of them, no matter the cost, as they're proven losers just blocking the elevation of more deserving players to the bigs.

Play the kids and newcomers and ditch the proven losers already!

 
at 1:11 AM Blogger Mr. Redlegs said...

So how is a guy who allowed 83--count 'em, EIGHTY-THREE!--baserunners in just 59 innings, all in relief, while allowing 33 RBI and being absolutely horrible close and late in a game supposed to help as a starter?

Unless he's the next Jamie Moyer, who rose from the pitching dead (twice), I don't see it. Affeldt's career numbers as a starter don't back up the premise, either.

But his groundball percentages are good, his scouting report says 50 percent of his pitches are low in the zones, he's better against righthanders than lefties, opponents hit only .226 off him, and he keeps the ball in the park.

Sounds like the solid left-handed choice out of the bullpen—not a starter.

And barring a complete meltdown (or trade) in the spring, Stanton isn't going anywhere. Coutlangus is the one who should be worried. He was figured out the second time through the league.

 
at 1:27 AM Blogger JerBear said...

I'm probably totally off base in my thinking, but my first thought was Affeltd would be put in the bullpen and Bray or Coutlangus would maybe be involved in a trade, or Stanton released.

I guess it would be a cheap risk to try him out in the rotation, but Affeldt looked pretty good coming out of the Rockies bullpen last year.

I kind of thought he got his career going back in the right direction by coming out of the bullpen. It seems kinda like Danny Graves again.

I hope it works out if they are going to put Affeldt in the rotation, but there's definitely a little wishful thinking here.

I think it's a decent risk, but we'll just have to wait and see what materializes.

 
at 2:27 AM Blogger Grizzlyfox said...

I semi agree with the points recently raised on this post. I agree that Affeldt likely will be better out of the pen. However, I also believe this team will be better served keeping Belisle out of the starting 5 to start the season, while also keeping Cueto in AAA. Belisle had trouble with runners on base. There are 2 probable causes for this. There is either a flaw in his motion out of the stretch, or he gives in. If its the stretch, then the Reds need to find a good pitching coach, if it was choice b, then demoting him to long relief could make him more competitive. Put Affeldt, Volquez, and Bailey in the rotation, and see what Cueto does in AAA and Belisle does in long relief. If anyone falters before May, use Belisle first. If anyone falters after May and Cueto is still solid in the minors, try Cueto(for service time reasons also.)

 
at 4:00 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone on one of these blogs had Harang and belisle's stats from their first full year starting, and the were so similiar I almost puked his bb/k ratio was better even! don't sleep on this kid he has the stuff to be a solid 3 spot guy maybe even 2. It was obvious last year he has some stuff to work on, but you never know

like the affeldt signing by the way, this was a pretty damn solid signing we've got at least a shot this year. We will have a winning record

 
at 7:39 AM Anonymous redfuture said...

As expressed earlier, I like this trade. But he has to be used as a relief pitcher to make it work. I can't believe what I'm reading on this blog. Clint Hurdle is a pretty good manager and he decided to use two rookies, Jiminez & Morales, as starters for his 2nd half stretch run. Why did he do that? He had Affy there for a year & half and never started him once. There is a reason. He even used Fogg as a starter over Affy. What does that tell you? I repeat what does that tell you? Come on now, let's be Hurdlesque and start 2 young studs along with Harang, Arroyo & Belisle and ride the wave to the post season.

 
at 8:01 AM Anonymous Marj said...

I would leave him in the bullpen as this will ensure we have a really solid pen of 3 lefties and 3 righties. Stanton, Affeldt, Bray, Cordero, Burton, and Weathers. The other reliver might be McBeth or Coffey. I think you leave Belisle a starter and go with Bailey and Volquez as the 4 and 5 guys. Start Cueto and Maloney at AAA.

 
at 8:09 AM Blogger docproc said...

They are not paying this guy 3 million a year to be in the bullpen. Trust me: He will be in the starting rotation.

Given our need for a lefty, I like the gamble.

 
at 8:57 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Personally I think the majority of you have lost your marbles regarding this signing..Hes ok..maybe a little less than ok

And to redsfuture "gushing"..this team has had seven straight losing seasons..they finished 13 games out last year. Gush away

You guys are so involved in stats, scouting reports etc..you fail to see the big picture at times..and that includes you too Mr Fay.

Aside from getting a closer..this team still has done very little to address its needs

Frankly..Pete McKanin had a lot more on the ball than Dusty Baker..this was a terrible hiring. You will see more of the Dunn /Griffey complacency with Baker.

And John..why dont you be honest and tell everyone about the clubhouse chemistry. As I am sure that you are aware..there are some serious issues. I know for a fact that Josh Hamilton is gone because a certain other player thought he was getting too much attention

I have hope for this club... when Mr Griffey is long gone..money freed up for pitching etc..Then I will gush.

As it is with the Bengals..the chemistry on this baseball team is not very good..there are some definitive issues. And until certain players either leave or retire..it wont matter who you pick up . They will not allow success or successful players because it will overshadow them

John lets have a get together in June so that we can critique the season as it progresses







Jack in Blue Ash

 
at 10:12 AM Anonymous helm said...

Anybody who thinks this guy will be in the rotation is dreaming. His best numbers are as a lefty specialist. The last time I checked that would be the one weakness of the bullpen (Mike Stanton currently is tabbed for the role). Affeldt stays in the pen, Stanton is gone, and the search for another starter continues on.

 
at 10:27 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

As I recall, when he was in KC, he showed great promise as a starter, but was plagued by serious blister problems that seemingly kept him from going more than 5 innings. He had a fingernail removed to try & correct the issue, but he never again was effective in the rotation & was banished to the pen.

 
at 11:18 AM Anonymous mikec said...

"This guy has big time composure."

Composure is the one thing he didn't have earlier in his career. Maybe he's maturing... But seriously folks, this isn't a move that turns this team into a World Series contender. Don't get me wrong. It's a smart signing. Relatively cheap. Adds depth as a possible starter or spot starter. Or adds stability to the pen. Has a high upside without the injury risk of Colon or Freddy Garcia. He could be great. Or he could be a cheaper Kyle Lohse. Let's wait and see how he does before we say that this is the move that makes them a playoff contender.

Oh and I'd way prefer Affeldt to Josh Fogg...

 
at 11:20 AM Anonymous mikec said...

Another reason to like this move: I heard the Cubbies and Brewers were both interested in him.

 
at 11:27 AM Anonymous rickNmd said...

Jack in Blue Ash, you really think a talent of Hamilton's ability is traded because of clubhouse chemistry? Under that premise the '78 Yankees would have been disbanded in mid-season and the '86 Red Sox would have needed more than 25 cabs.

You act as though stats and scouting reports don't matter. Why do you think managers make so many lineups these days? They micro-analyze the data, like managers should in this day of advanced media.

And for what it's worth, his name is Mackanin. He was only the manager for half the season.

 
at 11:36 AM Blogger Scott In Louisville, KY said...

I like this signing because it just adds to the competition. Like someone said before. This is low risk with possible high reward.

ON A SIDE NOTE:

I purchased a two game package yesterday for the Yankees (3/14) and Phillies (3/16) but I won't be in Sarasota for the Phillies game. I am looking to sell them for face value ($28 for the pair). They are Section 2, Row E, Seats 3 & 4. If anyone is interested you can email me at snicely24@yahoo.com. Please put the subject as "Reds Vs. Phillies" There won't be any shipping charges or convenience fees like you would pay from the Reds site. Just face value.

 
at 11:41 AM Blogger Bogey said...

You guys on this board should have to listen to some of the crap you write until you vomit. All the rants about putting the young guys in a letting them get their lumps as they learn.

Seems to me that is exactly what happened with Belisle last year. I thought he held his own pretty well as a first year starter. Now he is suddenly the weakest link and needs to be shipped to long relief. Same with Bailey. Yes he had some growing pains, and an injury, but overall not a bad beginning.

So what does it mean to put the young guys in to learn on the job if you mental giants are going to crucify them if they hiccup? Sorry dudes, you can’t have it both ways.

 
at 12:10 PM Anonymous Benihana said...

I'd still like to see the Reds get Bartolo Colon. Put him on a diet and some Hydroxycut when you sign him and he might be in shape by the end of Spring Training. Nobody seems to be mentioning anywhere what he wants for a contract, so that's kind of a mystery.

 
at 12:34 PM Anonymous Monroe said...

This guy will be a spot starter, if at all. Which is fine, the pen needs all the help it can get.

It's cute the way the Reds are pretending Bailey has to compete for a starter's slot, but somehow Belisle is a lock.

If Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, Maloney and now Affeldt are competing for the last two spots - it's pretty clear that barring a spring meltdown Bailey and Volquez will get the nod. After all, Bailey's been the future for awhile and I would like to think the Reds didn't trade the great Josh Hamilton and not get a starter in return.

 
at 1:18 PM Anonymous BigRedMachine said...

I've been waiting to see something like this. Way to go Krivsky. This is a solid deal. Affeldt has the potential to help our team a lot, but still it's only 3 mil.
I would actually love to see Affeldt stay in the bullpen and hearken back to the days of Scott Sullivan, Dennis Reyes, Danny Graves and the nastiest bullpen in the majors. Having a bullpen that can come in and slam the door 90 % of the time is the best feeling in baseball.

 
at 1:21 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

the reds can't be serious about starting jeremy affeldt...

if they do the RIGHT thing and leave him in the pen, it's gettin real crowded down there. not a bad thing.

the reds want to play who they pay, and i can't blame them for that. i CAN blame them for paying people they shouldn't have.

cordero, weathers, and burton are locks.

valenzuela has to be on the 25-man somewhere.

bray has to stink it up bad not to make it.

majewski is getting paid so they will look long at him.

everybody's favorite arm coffey will be in the nati by may.

redlegs is probably right, stanton ain't goin nowhere fast enough

and then there's affeldt...ff

 
at 2:08 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

Yes, I admitted to "gushing" inside my earlier post. I also did ask to be excused at the same time. The person who didn't excuse me was actually "flushing" the season before it even begins, and he didn't ask to be excused. So, you are hereby NOT excused. Secondly, I am not gushing about the past, its about the future. By the way for those who don't know, you can click on the NICKNAME circle and then type your nickname in the rectangular box and then your published post will lead of "whatever your nickname is" said... Then you don't have to put your name at the bottom of your post!

 
at 2:28 PM Blogger Amy said...

Scott, I've emailed you about the 3/16 tickets.

 
at 2:30 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

redfuture...sorry for upsetting ya

I am not throwing the towel in before the season actually begins but I just don't think that this team is gonna be as good as many in here do

But thats the beauty of seasonal team sports "theres always next year"

So..too all of ya that love stats and rely on them...what has been the record of this team the past 7 years? Thats my stat to all of you

 
at 2:39 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

24/7-----
you'd like to think Coutlangus/McBeth/Salmon will all also get a look as well. This is interesting

man i can't wait for Opening Day

 
at 2:50 PM Blogger Daniel said...

Why not give him a shot to make the rotation? Especially because they need a lefty in there.

And to all of you who are saying that Affedlt is best left in the pen as a lefty specialist - his numbers against righties (.211 average) were better than against lefties (.250 average) so he's able to get both guys out and hopefully can handle going through a lineup twice.

 
at 2:54 PM Blogger redbeard said...

JOHN --

What do you anticipate the rotation to be when the Reds break camp? If they are totally set on giving spots to Harang, Arroyo, and Belisle (whom I find hard to believe is "guaranteed" a starters spot at this point), then that leaves Affeldt, Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez competing for two spots.

My take is that given how Krivisky has handled the younger kids he is going to start Cueto at AAA almost for sure. Given the contract just signed by Affeldt you'd expect him to have the inside track at a starter's spot. In my mind that really leaves Volquez and Bailey fighting for one spot (though I personally believe both will probably be better starters than Belisle by mid-season).

WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON THIS?

--redbeard

 
at 3:07 PM Anonymous Red at the Beach said...

This is a good move for today -- creative way to expand the pitching pool, and thank god we will have a lefty starter.

But this had to be plan g at best. For us to have gotten all the way down to Affeldt, we had to miss on plenty of other guys.

 
at 3:18 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

anon 2:39

thats the thing. i don't see any room for the young guys b/c of all the guys we now have under contracts that warrant playing time.

coot is def. out with lefties stanton, affeldt, and bray.

we have 5 righties assuming the reds only keep 4 on the bench (valentin, hopper, kepp, freel)

salmon or mcbeth may get a call if majewski flames out...after todd coffey.

 
at 3:32 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just looked over the stats from the playoffs, and unless I'm mistaken, Affeldt gave up a total of one run in the entire playoffs (in a big Rockies win), working about half the Rockies' games in mostly one inning stints. That works for me.

 
at 3:37 PM Blogger tom dunne said...

"So..too all of ya that love stats and rely on them...what has been the record of this team the past 7 years? Thats my stat to all of you"

What's your point? In the last 7 years, the Reds have been through two owners, three general managers and four field managers. Did relying on statistics cause that? Heck, can you name me even one member of the Reds front office who has *ever* shown an interest in sabrmetrics?

 
at 4:44 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

tom dumne..

my point is this..the majority of people on this blog use stats or expert evaluations to substantiate any player addition and/or expectation..

conversely..I too can use stats when suggesting that the Reds are not the champion killers as everyone on this blog is suggesting

our record over the past 7 years is what?

how have we done over the course of the past 18 years?

Pretty bad

 
at 5:37 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jack in Blue Ash,
Get on the ball would you? Everything you say John doesn't write about he has already written about it. Get off the Jamacian gold bro!

 
at 6:23 PM Blogger Champ Summers said...

Just take a deep breath everyone. He is not the savior but he is a nice and relatively inexpensive addition.

Whether we use him out od the pen or as a lefty in the rotation, bottom line, he gives the staff some flexibility and depth. We were one injury away from a pretty ugly situation.

I don't think we are done. One more addition is needed. Take a flyer or make a deal, either way we still need more depth.

 
at 7:12 PM Anonymous Red Faced said...

The competition in Spring Training will be the best this team has had in a long time as far as the rotation is concerned. And all of you who are ready to bury Belisle can we just give him a chance to prove himself? He has basically only started one full season. Just one, last year, that's it. He showed good stuff at times and was lousy on others but that's what you get with most young pitchers. Homer was basically the same way when he came up last year. He had really good outings and really bad ones. Look at the first two months of the season. Belisle was 5-4 in 11 starts, he had a 4.26 ERA, 48-12 SO to BB, Had more ground outs than Flyouts and avg more than 6 innings per outing. If we can get that Belisle most of the season we should be thrilled.

Belisle had an awful June and July, but Aug and Sept were not as bad. I'd like to think that he learned a lot from his first full season in the rotation. How could you not? I'd like to think that we'll have an improved Belisle in the rotation this year. So fro all you guys bashing Belisle and trying to move him into the bullpen already, I say give the guy a chance. I think we'll all be pleasantly surprised with Belisle this year. Don't bury this guy yet, if he learns to pitch better with runners on base he could have an awesome season for the Reds.

 
at 7:16 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

some people need to realize that the approach is to field a playoff contender-with or without bedard.

big bob didn't say to himself,

lets sign this 46 million dollar closer..

and this 3 time nl manager of the year known for quick turnarounds...

and this guy jocketty who people seem to respect...

oh and let's trade my gm's biggest coup thus far and five tool phenomenon (not the bowden type)

...but if we don't net a willis or a bedard forget 08 just order the bobbleheads and mail it in.

we're not done...

 
at 7:45 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

All I want to know is, "Does he quack like a duck?". ...Oh, I'm sorry that's Aflac. But still the analogy is good, "If it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it's a duck!". So, "If he can relieve, and do it well, under duress, and doesn't sprint to the mound, he's a quality setup man!".

 
at 8:58 PM Anonymous mikec said...

Colon is reportedly only throwing in the upper 80s. His offspeed stuff isn't what it once was, so he needs a good fastball. And he doesn't have it. I think just about every team that saw him pitch in the Dominican workout he did is no longer interested.

 
at 8:59 PM Anonymous mikec said...

Also, one of the Web reports I read on Affeldt signing said he took less money to sign with Cinci because they were willing to give him a chance to be starter.

 
at 9:11 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jack

None of your arguments are making any sense, none. You HAVE to evaluate players based on their stats, any coach general manager or baseball guy for that matter knows this.

How can you say dusty was a bad signing WE HAVENT SEEN HIM DO ANYTHING. Hes heard the criticism since hes been out, if someones going to go out there and prove a bunch of naysayers wrong, like you, I'll bet a 3-time manager of the year has a pretty damn good shot.

This signing is a win-win, unless he gets injured, but he's a lefty and the bullpen could use him if he fails the rotation, or one of the kids pitch their way in. middle of the season or whatever. this guys a way better option than anyone else

I'm sick of people getting on here and bashing everything we do just because our record has been bad in the past, since its the reds they suck and so does everything they do. its that kind of thinking this team needs to get rid of and I'm tired of hearing it. Just like everyone wants to get rid of our first legit prospect in years just because the reds have had bad luck in the past, its a losers attitude and it needs to change

If your going to bash on your team, at least have some better arguments than we're "obsessed in stats" thats one of the dumbest things Ive ever read on here
ErikinNevada

 
at 10:13 PM Blogger Dan said...

One thing to keep in mind... There is no such thing as a team that has just 5 or even 6 guys start games all season. Literally never happens. Even good teams!

Last year the Reds had 11 different pitchers start a game for them.

NL Champs Colorado had 13.

World Champ Boston had 9.

My point is, there is no reason at all that we need to pick 5 guys now and stick with just them. Chances are good that 10 or more guys will start a game for the Reds this year, and we just picked up a guy (pretty cheaply at that) who gives us another option.

In my mind that's nothing but good.

 
at 12:32 AM Anonymous grizzlyfox said...

Reds faced I still think Belisle has a future but right now he is a liability in the rotation. You say he had a decent Aug. and Sep., his era was over 5 in both months, despite starting 6 of his last 10 games against teams that were out of contention. And his era in those other 4 games against teams trying to get in? 19 ER in 22 2/3 innings, for a whopping era of 7.55. He needs some seasoning.

 
at 12:33 AM Anonymous T-Dubbs said...

For goodness sake...can you guys please get off Krivksy's back...

This entire offseason, and every other offseason...people continue to complain about this man....

The fact that someone could really think that jocketty was the reason, this deal went down is just idiotic.....I can assure you that Krivsky has been in negotions long before jocketty came aboard...Krivsky's silence sucks for us to know whats really going on sometimes...but this deal and the cordero deal simply would not have came as cheap without it....

I don't really want to a ddress the trade issues again...Krivsky makes the "smart" deals.........Krivsky is a perfect fit for our team, and has found us countless number of cheap efficient fixes in the little time here...

He's developed our farm system, and isnt trading them!! its amazing that we have the likes of Votto, Bailey, Cueto, Bruce, etc. all MLB or Near MLB ready....

The reds got Hamilton and Phillips for practically nothing....

You guys can moan and groan all you want, but at the end of the day, the reds would be in an even worse shape than they are now with Krivksy..........

In other news, I think this is a great deal. As the posts above mentioned...I am sure he'll have a chance to start at one time or another due to the many injuries, inconsistinces that occur during the year...He's a steal at 3 Million, and if he doesnt go into the starting rotation how does a Pen of Affeldt/Burton/Weathers/Cordero sound?? If Affeldt is gonna be in the pen...i believe the reds just went from having the worst bullpen in the NL to one of the better ones.....I am very happy with this offseason thus far...


Tomko just got signed so i dont see him coming here....

Colon has scared off anyone whose looked in his direction thus far..

Not sure there is really anyone left for the reds to sign...if they can get someone to a minor league deal or something maybe...I also believe the biggest issue right now is whose gonna be on that 25 Man Roster....

 
at 2:43 AM Blogger Jeff said...

JOHN,

I know it is premature, but where is Affeldt in terms of free agency after the year. Do we have any control? Meaning...is he 1-3 year guy, an arbitration guy? Or is he strictly just a unrestriced FA that we will have no rights to after the year is up? Is this a rent a player or a guy that we can keep for a while if we want since he is relatively young?

 
at 9:40 AM Blogger John Fay said...

He's a free agent.

 
at 9:46 AM Blogger 24/7 said...

john,

do you think affeldt affects bailey's spot in the rotation?

 
at 9:59 AM Blogger John Fay said...

It makes the competition tougher for all the young guys, which is good thing.

 
at 10:13 AM Blogger docproc said...

I purchased all my Spring Training tickets this weekend–-three Reds games in three different cities, including Sarasota. Woo hoo!

However, because I had to buy a two-game package, I have tickets I won’t be able to use for the March 11 game against the Astros at Ed Smith Stadium. They’re 3rd row box seats in Section 4. If anyone’s interested, I’ll sell them for what I paid for them (34 bucks for the pair). Drop me a line at proctorr@nku.edu.

 
at 10:14 AM Blogger 24/7 said...

thanks john. i know conventional wisdom says grab a vet but it just seems like you have to at least see what bailey can do to prevent taking steps backward in 09.

now, a bluff by krivsky giving him affeldt a shot in the spring in order to push the kids knowing all well he's gonna put him in the pen would be a good move...

 
at 10:40 AM Blogger Brendan said...

He's a good pickup. Anything that increases the competition in a rotation that is guaranteeing a spot for Belisle, is fine with me. Works case scenario, he works out of the pen.

 
at 10:44 AM Anonymous J-Diggety said...

My question is, if Bruce wins the starting centerfield job, who hit's leadoff?

 
at 11:48 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

T-Dubbs: Look at W.K.s record...we got worse with him in charge!He is now just a spokesman(Walt J. now makes the calls)thankfully. W.K. is a disaster and a PR nightmare..thats why Bob C. hired Walt!!I will join the crowd....WAKE UP CINCY FIRE KRIVSKY

 
at 12:08 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

Erik in nevada

i certainly am entitled to my opinion as you are yours.And I would suggest to you erik..that i go to many more games than you do

In fact this team has been terrible over the course of the past 7 years and pretty much the the past 17 years..aside from 3 or 4 seasons

We have picked up a proven closer. Aside from that..some prospects that may or may not make the team..this Affeldt is average ..not much better than what we have..and Dusty Baker

If you think that this will somehow magically turn this team around..good luck..

Erik I am not a Cincinnati Red nor is my critique harmful to that team.. Calm down dude and email Castellini regarding poor attitude on the team ..you are suggesting that fans that have grown of losing are somehow causing the team to lose..you make no sense

T-Dubbs..you are assuming that all these marvelous "diamonds in the rough" trades that WK has done has done wonders for this team. That remains to be seen ..does it not? So far not so good

Again..the beauty of team sports is that there is always next year and that you can have wonderous hope in the offseason

I will be at the ballpark enjoying my 30 games this year..its a nice venue. But I am also realistic and we are 2 or 3 years away from contending.

When Griffeys contract runs it course and 12 million is freed up ..the personality of the team changes dramatically and we have cash to spend on further additions

The team aint gonna change until there is a complete makeover. s

 
at 12:26 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

J-Diggety: Your question considering who hits leadoff when JB starts CF is a good one, and one I have been considering all winter. When Josh was still a Red many people saw him as the leadoff hitter without blinking as he did that 26 times and almost exclusively for his last few weeks before injury. We all know that Josh was not your prototypical leadoff hitter by any means. Hopper/Freel are the only hitters on the team that fit that bill, however JB's immense talent will push him into the starter's role at least against RH pitchers. So back to your leadoff question. Since there are no prototypical leadoff hitters with JB in the lineup it might be worth considering being totally unconventional, by leading off with Votto! I was impressed by how well Joey cut down his swing with 2 strikes last September. With that approach I saw him flare many quality pitches over the infield and in front of the outfield. Of course, when ahead in the count he's a threat to give them an immediate lead. Votto also has good speed and was a high % base stealer in the minors. He could swipe 20 bases easily. This allows BP to bat second, a better place for him with his speed prior to being bottled up with Griffey in front of him. At the same time BP should hit into fewer double plays without the slow Griffey running from 1st to 2nd. Griffey will bat 3rd due to the respect he is still afforded. Encarnacion has to hit cleanup because he is always a good with RISP and he keeps the lefty-righty thing going. Dunn hits 5th and I expect him to continue the improved 2-strike approach and finally have that 50HR/120RBI season. He is now reaching his prime. AGon bats 6th initially to reduce the pressure on JB a bit and to keep the LH/RH thing going. Jay begins the year hitting 7th until he settles in a little. JB can be moved to the 3rd spot occassionally when Junior's mandated day off is against a RH pitcher. Of course the 8th spot belongs to the catchers Ross and Valentin. By the way Belisle was a much better pitcher to Ross in 16 outings than he was to Javier in 11 outings.

 
at 12:59 PM Blogger Mr. Redlegs said...

If you seriously believe this organization is in worse shape under Krivsky based solely on record of the past two years, with nary a consideration for the vapid condition of this organization and the system development and/or expenditures of division rivals, you are blind, stupid and inconsolable.

 
at 1:06 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

votto/hatte
philips
griff
ee
dunn
bruce
gonzo
ross

Left-Right-L-R-L
decent balance

harang
arroyo
belisle
volquez
bailey

back end bullpen

cordero
weathers
burton
bray
affeldt

look at the rotation. we have a #1 and a #3. between belisle, volquez and bailey, we have a #4 and a #5. but with that lineup and back end, can't we make the playoffs without a #2?

that, or the reds braintrust reads this blog and heard the harang-belisle comparisons and think he's gonna post a 3.9 era this yr.

 
at 1:11 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

No suprise from ANON 11:48 whose caps button continues to stick, and Jack in the Blue.

This move, to sign Affeldt, is a very good move to continue to incrementally upgrade the roster. EVERYBODY would prefer to see Affeldt start games versus the person he replaces; Eric Milton.

For as much as our Experienced 3rd and 4th Starters contributed to us last year (0-4 5.15) and
(6-12 4.58), Belisle was as good or better than those 2.

Our #5 Starter, 34 Starts with ERA about 6.9xx and 7-18 record, is being addressed, as was closer

It is about incrementally upgrading the roster. The starters, the bench, the bullpen, WITHOUT GIVING UP MUCH IN RETURN. Hatteberg is much better Jacob was. Shoot, Freel was starting 3 years ago, by need. Now he is on the bench, along with Kepp. What a GREAT bench!

Oh and ANON 11:48, give up the Krivsky bashing. He is going nowhere for just 2 deals where he overhauled the roster: Hamilton and our 2nd baseman
Joe Morgan Jr.

Who exactly was Jeff Stevens? That will be a future trivia question...

"2B Brandon Phillips, a No. 2 draft pick of the old Montreal Expos in 1999, was acquired from the Indians in the spring of 2006 at the cost of minor league RHP Jeff Stevens and is now one of the premier players in baseball"

 
at 1:55 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

and Mr Redlegs

if you are to suggest that the organization is better under Krivsky..prove it.

I see nothing

much of the betterment at the minor league level is because of Dan Obrien by the way

 
at 2:35 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

You are right Jack, the roster was better without Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton, Keppinger, Arroyo, Ross, Scott Hatteberg, Gonzales and now Cordero and Affeldt.

Our roster was MUCH better with Wily Mo Pena, the One player we gave up to get these guys

 
at 2:36 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

jack,

what would YOU do that krivsky isn't, and how?

 
at 2:56 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

I commented earlier about how much better Belisle's numbers were when pitching to Ross. I decided to check this for Harang, Arroyo and Lohse, the only other pitchers to start more than 20 games for the Reds. It's astounding! Only Bronson was better to Valentin which is very odd because it was his insistance on using Ross that was the impetus that made Ross the primary catcher.

 
at 2:59 PM Anonymous j said...

reaganspad and 24/7

not much you can do until griffeys contract expires or unless Bob wants to spend another 20 million at this time

josh hamilton is gone.. arroyo is inconsistent..ross is a 200 hitting catcher.. scott hatteburg is at the end of his career he is what 41 years old ..too funny
I do like Keppinger and certainly Phillips. But lets not forget contract extensions to Cormier, Stanton etc and the other dozen and one half players that he ran through the lineup.. Is this the same Krivsky that is paying Ryan Freel over 3 million a year...way too funny .Please man deal with facts.

you see Reaganspad..the aforementioned is where you and I differ..you see these aforementioned pieces and you get all excited and make excuses

I see those same pieces on the team last year that finished 13 games behind 1st place

I would not haved signed Cordero at 46 million nor would I have even considered Dusty Rusty Baker..thats for sure

Make plans for the middle of June..we can meet for dinner..on me and then do a better evaluation

 
at 3:00 PM Anonymous redsfanwoody said...

Jack in Blue Ash,
You just said the Reds will be competitive in 2-3 years. Why? Because of Krivsky and O'brien returning the emphasis back on developing players, and not falling in love with the five tool players.

You should pick up or search for Baseball America analysis on the Reds. You might be surprised! In your run of 30+ games this year hopefully your outlook on the Reds will brighten just a little bit more!
Woody

 
at 3:39 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

redsfan..

There are players on every team in sports that cherish mediocrity as a whole because it allows them to get continued attention on their quest for certain achievments. This
team will be better off when Mr Griffey is gone. No further comment.

I see improvement on this team especially when Keppinger and Votto are in the lineup. But I don't see this dramatic improvement that somein here speak of

Yet, I still will go to games and enjoy myself.

Interestingly, and for all those and you included Redsfan.. with all the expert analysis and predictions etc.. you wanna know something..experts are just as often wrong as they are right .

My point is this..until the record proves me wrong, I am correct and you are not.

As of now ..we have a team that finished 13 games outta first place and we have a team that has had 7 losing seasons in a row. If you cant deal with this I am sorry

Conversely.. I hope that I am wrong and you all are correct

 
at 3:41 PM Anonymous redsfan71 said...

I think Affeldt is a good pickup as well, probably as far as the bullpen is concerned. Who knows, he may develop into a SP, should be interesting to see how he is used during Spring. However the stat posted by Mr. Redlegs,saying he had allowed 83 baserunners in 59innings was an eye opener. Hope that isn't right. He looked in the playoffs.
What were the Harang/Belisle comparisons? I missed that?
As far as Krivsky is concerned, some not so good pickups are overshadowed by Phillips, Hamilton and Burton, who looked like a guy poised to just get better and better. I like him and his potential a lot.

 
at 4:11 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

redsfan,

someone on here pointed out that belisle's first full yr starting is statistically very similar to harang's.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/matt-garza.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/homer-bailey.shtml

jack,

you wouldn't do the following

sign the best closer available at market rate?

sign an effective lefty for the pen while fleecing the kids into thinking they are in more competition than they really are in the spring?

move some of your low contract outfield surplus for a top pitching prospect?

resign hatte, a team leader and solid contributor for what the reds make on dollar hot dog night?

sign a 3 time nl mgr of the year that took 90 game losers and won 87 or better in his first yr TWICE?

again,

arroyo 2006- 3.29 era in 240 innings

harang since 2004

4.0 era, whip 1.26

arroyo since 2004

4.0 era, whip 1.26

 
at 4:22 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

Those who don't like statistics should close your eyes for a minute here and skip over this post.
Jeremy's numbers compared to the LHs he should be replacing.
Affeldt allowed 47H & 33BB in 59.0IP for a WHIP of 1.36.
Stanton allowed 75H & 18BB in 57.2IP for a WHIP of 1.61.
Gosling allowed 42H & 28BB in 33.0IP for a WHIP of 2.12.
Coutl.. allowed 38H & 27BB in 41.0IP for a WHIP of 1.59.
Dumat.. allowed 39H & 12BB in 18.0IP for a WHIP of 2.83.

 
at 6:01 PM Anonymous Big Red Machine said...

Why doesn't anybody think that Hopper should hit first. He consistently hits over .300, and has the speed to go with it.
My lineup:

Hopper
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
Encarnacion
Gonzalez
Ross/Valentin

 
at 6:08 PM Anonymous ErikNevada said...

Jack

Lets be clear here for a second, I dont think this team is all the sudden the division winner, and I would also suggest to you that you have no idea how many games I actually watch, mlb.com is on everyday i have a chance and I was still watching until the end last year (fair-weather fans be damned). I'm not saying it's true, but there's a pretty good chance I watched more if not the same amount of games you did. On tv you get a way better look at what pitchers are doing, and what batters are trying to do depending on the count and where the runners are, and you get replays. so being at the games as opposed to my watching 100+ games is pretty irrelevant. I'm even looking into satellite baseball package + DVR so I can record the games I would've missed last year.

Griffey we need on this team simply because of his clubhouse influence (and ticket sales for 600). I am going to agree with you that this team will need to part ways soon, and if it were do-able he would've been who I traded this offseason, unfortunately it wasn't possible given the contract specifics. At the same time he's a key piece to this team you can't tell me you know this team and don't realize this. He needs to play less games this year, I hope that happens. Also think about dealing him at the trading deadline, but like I said it's not easy to trade someone who has control over his situation.

Yes affy is average, but what else do you want this team to do? he's the best we were going to find, and hes flexible between the bullpen and rotation (rotation-maybe). is this going to instantly win us the division, hell no. I'll take a cheap younger lefthanded groundball pitcher coming off his best season in a hitters park, whose only chance starting was in the "too pussy to bat a pitcher league" where the line-ups are tougher. 3 hrs last year in coors, thats it?

Is Dusty going to magically turn this team around, definately not but he's a huge upgrade over narron and mackanin, no question. narron had no idea how to prepare a team and mack hasnt proved anything. We've got a way better shot at a winning record because of it. who do we have a better shot at a hot start with, narron or baker?

lets be realistic here, is this team suddenly the division champs, no, I'm not stupid. do they have a better shot than last year, yes. your blind if you dont agree. compare this team to the 80-82 team a few years ago and obviously you see an amazing upgrade. when we had a decent closer (eddie) we were winning more with less in our rotation and lineup, so cordero is a big big piece.

Oh take away our "diamonds in the rough" and tell me where this team is, nowhere fast right back to the stone age, so I'm not sure what your talking about there again that argument makes no sense. One or two good moves isn't going to make a winning team instantly, one or two good moves a year and in three years you got something, especially when those moves are guys like phillips.

All I'm saying is at least consider the positive side instead of instantly going to the negative. fans with your attitude don't buy tickets, which hurts this team. I'm not emailing Bob C, because he already agrees with me...

 
at 6:25 PM Anonymous ErikNevada said...

I posted the anon belisle/harang comparison. I saw someone post the stats for both back to back in an earlier blog

goto reds.com (or any stat site) and compare belisles first full year starting (07) to harang's (04)

positives:
Belisle's k/bb ratio was better
hrs allowed was the same

Negatives:
b - 5.32era h - 4.83era
b - 212h h - 177h (belisle did pitch in 2 more games)

Lets give this kid a chance. will he become a harang, probably not. but he's got a better shot than the fans are giving him

no more anon posts I know how the nickname thing works now

 
at 7:11 PM Anonymous mikec said...

To be clear, Krivsky had to sign Cormier to that extension or else Cormier would have blocked the trade. At the time Cormier had a league best 1.59 ERA and the Reds bullpen was horrible. If anyone out there says they wouldn't have done that in Krivsky's shoes at that time (Reds in the hunt, bullpen blowing games right and left) they are a flat out liar.

And again, Stanton was a little riskier, but most GMs would have done that. No one expected that drop off. In fact, nearly all Reds fans at the time of the signing were praising the move MORE than they are for the Affeldt signing now.

Hindsight is 20/20. No GM is perfect.

 
at 8:10 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

Erik... yeah we need to pay someone 12 million a year for "clubhouse presence"..Umm Eric..how many winning seasons have we had since Kennie joined us?

And this is where you and I differ..your love for Griffey blinds you to the fact that this team has had but what 1 winning season with him on the roster. Time to wake up and smell the roses eric

We met a couple of Reds ballplayers and their wives at a Bengals game last month..its funny they did not speak so highly of Mr Griffey Sorta inferred he was a "divider" in the clubhouse

Of course Eric.. I feel certain that you would know more then they do. And actually Eric..one of the ballplayers whom we spoke to is one of the most highly liked on the team

Please don't lecture me on buying tickets. I went to 30 games last year..you went to none. And there are many fans like me that have reservations about this team.

I dont have to watch our pitchers on TV Eric..aside from Harang... and Weathers on occasion...they were inconsistent and they stunk And I would disagree with you Eric.. where we sat you have an excellent view of the pitchers..can easily see the movement on the ball.

My point is this..but first let me preface.. I hope I am wrong and you are correct..But..until I see production on the field and a turnaround..for now..all you can offer me is hope and supposition

I certainly appreciate your die hard support of this team Mikeic..but do me a favor don't make excuses for poor trades

As it stands right now..the season is over..we finished 13 games outta 1st for our 7TH consecutive losing season

 
at 11:11 PM Anonymous Red Faced said...

Jack in Blue Ash... I beg to differ with you sir. You state: "As it stands right now..the season is over.."

The season has not yet begun. I love Baseball, no matter what it always comes back around.

 
at 11:18 PM Blogger Grizzlyfox said...

Jack I can usually stand your raving statements as just being pessimistic. But know you try to blame Ken Griffey Jr. for the Reds problems. Absolutely ignorant. The Reds offense last year in the NL Central? 1st in OBP and SB, 2nd in AVG, Runs, RBI, AB/HR, XB Hits, SLG, and HR. So yes, it is obviously an offensive players fault that they finished 13 out in the division. Since they've gotten him I'd bet they've finished in the top 3 in most if not all of those categories every year he has been able to stay healthy. As a knowledgeable fan that goes to 30 games a year you should be able to discern without being told that pitching is this teams big problem. 2nd best NL Central offense, worst NL Central pitching. Huh, I wonder what caused them to be 13 games back. Must've been Ken Griffey Jr. Seriously, do you see logic there??? I typically don't care what many people say on here, but when they keep repeating the same ignorant things that don't matter it gets annoying. What was Krivsky supposed to do with this bone bare pitching system??? Just magically make it better?? AND IF ANY PLAYER PUBLICLY STATES THAT ANOTHER PLAYER IS A CLUBHOUSE DIVIDER THAN WHO IS THE REAL CLUBHOUSE DIVIDER??? You probably work, if your fellow workmen went around behind your back telling everyone you were a pain in the butt to work with how would you feel when that got back to you? If a player is so likeable, he won't be grumbling about fellow players, let alone gabbing to a random fan about it.

 
at 11:42 PM Blogger JerBear said...

Quick...think of a Colorado Rockies starting pitcher before the count of 3!

I bet most of you had a real struggle thinking of a name. I know I did when someone started talking about the Rockies, and I was like who were their starting pitchers again? Oh yeah Jeff Francis!

I think you can win with very talented rookie pitchers these days. Of course they can't be your main guys during most of the season, but I'd rather see Cueto and Bailey out there then a converted bullpen-pitcher.

To Jack:
1) You're not the only person who thinks the Reds have a lack of leadership in the clubhouse among the players.

I don't think Griffey is the problem necessarily. I respect everything he's done in his career, and I really think he'd be a guy that would produce if the Reds ever made the playoffs.

I just don't know if Griffey and the other guys they have now are born leaders. Maybe Dusty Baker can help out in that area.

2) The Reds are 2-3 years away? There's no way to predict that. They could easily win the Central. They could also finish 6-7 games back.

I bet a lot of Rockies and DBacks fans last year were saying man we are 2-3 years away! Especially Dback fans.

3) Jack don't look at Krivsky. I'm still a Krivksy believer, but I'm wavering a little more than in the past.

But the reason the Reds will turn things around is because of Bob Castellini.

When's the last time the city of Cincinnati has had an owner like Castelinni? I think Marge wanted to win, but she wasn't as hungry even as Castellini is, and plus Marge was a little loopey as we all know.

I just have had a good feeling about Castellini since the day he started. I think the Reds and Reds fans are really really fortunate that he took over the club.

That's all I got for today!

 
at 12:45 AM Anonymous ErikNevada said...

jack
I wasn't talking about you when I mentioned ticket sales, i was talking about "the other fans" you referred to. You have a right to express your opinions because your not a fair-weather fan, I highly respect your love for the reds to still pay for tickets thinking what you do. But just because you pay for tickets doesnt mean I am going to agree with everything you say, your making it sound like I should.

12 million for griffey is what his contract has on it, I never said it was worth it, in fact I even said he would've been better off being traded. you need to read more carefully, my love for griff extends only to my love for 93 RBIs and decent defense in right, anything past that and I think his contract is too large, but it is the contract and because of the provisions written in he's worth keeping because he had and has no trade value, current ownership had nothing to do with it. He was the piece I wish we could've traded this offseason, I fail to see the love.

The clubhouse thing however, well your argument trumps anything I've got no question. As far as I knew he was one of the senior members and leaders, after hearing what you said I'm a little more apprehensive, and a little confused we didnt deal him last year, but again his contract wasn't going to let us.

you said my name 7 times, it sounded weird while I was reading it in my head...but lets stay on subject

With the same amount of talent, our team turned in a winning record under mackanin without a full rotation or outfield at the end of the year, narron lost us those 13 games IMO, thats how I see us standing right now and thats the record I see proving you wrong as it stands

actually I went to 2 games.......on the road. if I lived there I'd be contributing, however the amount of games I've been to has nothing to do with my arguments

Oh and I hope I'm right too :). I'm less confident than you think.

 
at 12:48 AM Blogger Mr. Redlegs said...

Well Jack, you've received a well-deserved spanking here for irrational, speculative hyperbole. I'm sure we're all glad you go to 30 games a year, a rocket-fire assurance that your baseball acumen supercedes the front office, managers, scouts and any assortment of the most loathsome kind of know-nothing fan, fantasy-leaguers.

You think Krivsky is doing a horrible job, based on the team's record, without a single understanding of the state of the organization from two prior ownerships. And yet, every element of evidence you state has circumstantial sidebars, some of which were countered accurately by MikeC and others.

You should read posts other than your own more often.

Obviously, in those 30 games a year you're not paying attention. Perhaps it's because you're too busy chasing after the $1 hot dog. So I went through Enquirer and Post archives--online and through blogs--to revisit the state of the organization on the day Krivsky was hired just before pitchers and catchers reported in 2006:

* In Baseball America's 2006 organizational report, which comes out just before spring training each year, the Reds were last in all of MLB in talent rankings. That was a fall from 23rd in 2005 and 26th in 2004.

* The lack of organizational talent from top to bottom was so bad that in 2005 O'Brien spent $35 million on Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz and Paul Wilson.

* Thanks to terrific drafting by O'Brien's staff and continued good work by Krivsky the past two years, the Reds are expected to be among the No. 10 in this year's BA talent rankings after leaping to No. 12 in 2007.

* The Reds went to camp in 2006 as a last-place team. Here's some of the names reporting to Sarasota that year:

Womack, Hudson, McCracken, Cruz, Olmedo, Timo Perez, Machado, Abad, Menechino, Mike Burns, Dave Williams, Rick White, Hammond, Allan Simpson, Shackelford, along with Pena, Lopez, LaRue, Bergolla and Sardinha.

This was 95 percent O'Brien's roster as Krivsky was hired 10 days before camp. His first move was signing Hatteberg, who has been an excellent pickup.

* A few shrewd deals, a couple of smart smaller deals--despite the prerequisite handful of moves that didn't work out, like all GMs experience trying to find talent--have the Reds talking about contention over the next three years. They finally have organizational talent that is almost MLB-ready, along with lower-level talent from Krivsky's two drafts that offer the Reds some pieces they can develop or trade, which they did not have when Krivsky took control.

As for the fawning love affair that Jocketty is ready to save the Reds from despair, or Krivsky's incompetence, look at the state of the Cardinals. Farm system ranked No. 21 in 2006 and '07, No. 30 in 2005, and No. 28 in 2004 and 2003.

But hey, Jocketty is a genius because the Cardinals won on his watch by buying free agents and doling out massive contracts backed by massive revenues generated by a huge radio and TV network, sponsorships and a full house of fans, win or lose.

Do the Reds have any of these revenues? No.

There's your proof, foof.

 
at 9:15 AM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

Eric..you seem to be ok..again I hope I am wrong about the Reds and you are right

My point on Ken Griffey was in reference to your mentioning that
he was a "clubhouse leader or influence"

If the team has reduced itself to paying 12 million a year for this "leadership" thats a very sad commentary. And again.. most importantly... what have we done since hes been here? Nada

I am not suggesting that Griffey aint a good guy... wonderful father etc..

I am saying that the 12 miliion we have been paying him every year , over the course of the last 9 years, has been a total waste and one of the worst deals this franchise has ever made. To a certain degree, it has crippled this franchise and what it can do.

Here ya go Grizzly fox..The reds are gonna win the Central Division next year...ya feel better?

Mr Redlegs I am not gonna read your post in length and your rehash of various articles and statistics.

The Reds record last year was what?. The Reds record over the past 7 years has been what?

Interestingly, Mr Redlegs..many sports experts suggest that if the Bengals get a stud defensive tackle..they will win the division. As all of us living in Cincinnati know..the problems in that organization are far greater than one player or two.

My point..you place way too much emphasis on sports "experts" and scouts etc. They are more often wrong than right

Show me results and I will join the bandwagon.

Its a blog Mr Redlegs..its a debate ..Yet..as I conveyed to eric..I hope I am proven to be wrong...then everyone wins. Until that time..as it stands now ..this team finished 13 games outta 1st place in a very medicore divison

 
at 10:30 AM Blogger reaganspad said...

Great post Mr. Redlegs. And 24-7, I agree with you, while J feels Arroyo is inconsistant, give me 4 more just like him... 30+ starts and 200 innings at 4.2 ERA is worth what today?
About 12 million per year.

What I really like about Arroyo and Harrang is that they grew up/emerged as a star here. They seem like good teachers within the staff. If just a little of them rubs off on Belisle, he will be the next to emerge.
He had his moments last year. Now he has to do it consistantly. That is the great thing about freshman, they become sophmores

 
at 11:46 AM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

reaganspad

yep we need more teachers and I sure want many starters like arroyo that are terribly inconsistent half of every season

same to you..with all these great teachers..pitchers like arroyo..our record was what last year.

I appreciate you emotionally suggesting that Beslisle will step up.. there is just as good as chance he will not

 
at 12:04 PM Anonymous rickNmd said...

Dude in Blue Ash, if you're too lazy too read and understand why the Reds have been losing for almost a decade then stop spewing your nonsense.

It's one thing to be a fan, but to believe wins and losses have no intangibles such as scouting, drafting, development, payroll, revenue streams, injuries, acceleration by divisional opponents and luck (good or bad) is just being obstinately narrow.

 
at 12:16 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

im with reaganspad, nevada and redlegs

redlegs is right about the pisspoor organization handed to krivsky.

reaganspad,

arroyo is a little inconsistent i mean he's not big horse harang but if you look at his bad stretches in 06 he had some shameful run support mid summer and last year i think he had some nagging injury or soreness early on and he settled in later. on a decent team with respectable run support and a mlb level bullpen to hand games over to instead of narron sending him back out he may be around 3.9 and 220 innings

eriknevada,

that is a good point on harang and belisle. i dont know if anyone buys my bailey/garza comparisons, but im beating the drum until proven otherwise..

jack,

griff didn't cripple the reds. the reds and carl lindner crippled the reds. griff should have been a piece of an overall plan to get the reds in the playoffs. that includes top flight pitching and better position players. that would have gotten top value from the deal.

you don't sign a-rod to the rangers and say, hey lets get the world series hats out. well maybe you do if your organization is as dysfunctional as the reds were, but it doesn't work at all.

anybody who says uncle carl doesn't have the dough ain't heard of chiquita, great american ballpark or the new great american skyscraper he's building in front of it.

the reds got griff for under market value, on a backloaded contract. his feared presence in the lineup, gate and apparel revenue, 93 rbi and the absolute tear he was on for 3.5 months is worth whatever we are paying him this yr.

he's at the end of his career. you don't think if healthy he would have did that every single year or better?

the problem was the reds hiring gm's that knew the mlb but not the farm, gm's that knew the farm but not the mlb, hiring triple a managers and firing the couple good mlb ones they had, and not being aggressive about winning, which bob and krivsky have been this offseason.

and jerbear is DEAD ON about castellini.

jack, the bengals wont win with mike brown? why? he's not aggressive about winning. and i agree.

the reds will win with bob. c because he is. don't know him personally, but i can tell he's a bulldog in business affairs, doesn't like to lose and his word means a lot to him.

sounds nothing like mike brown.

 
at 12:35 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

Jack, I understand that you won't read Mr. Redlegs post because it has stats, and those may get in the way of your many rants.

What were you posting when Jimmy Haynes was our #1 starter? Or Paul Wilson? If we have 5 pitchers with Arroyo's efforts from last year, we will win the division. He will not have to go as long into the games to cover a ??? in the 7th/8th innings

I do not get you. You sound as if you are gonna print this doom stuff until the day the Reds win.

Well, that is the beauty of a blog, because you can just change your name to "Joe from Blue Ash" and say I knew they were gonna win all along

 
at 1:04 PM Blogger oldtimer said...

Well, this blog is certainly active today. Lots of astute comments. Good reading.

Mr. Redlegs, love and respect your input and please keep it coming, but your last paragraph in your 12:48 post raises some interesting questions and goes into uncharted waters, so to speak. You attribute Jocketty's success (with more than a touch of sarcasm_Well, this blog is certainly active today. Lots of astute comments. Good reading.

Mr. Redlegs, much as I love and respect your input and please keep it coming, your last paragraph in your last post at 12:48am bring up some new and undiscussed issues in how the Reds need to build. Your sarcastic tone about Jocketty;s success in ST Louis fails to change the fact that he WAS successful in picking and signing GOOD free agents as opposed to bad ones like OBrien did, and $35 million is no small potatoes realtive to the massive amounts you attribute to the Cards spending. Add on top of that the 100 plus on Griffey over the years and you could say the Reds spend too, just not as well. The bigger point and this is uncharted waters is your last sentence attributing the Cards revenue base to huge media contracts, advertsing, and attendance. If as you say these are in fact the source of the Cards vast revenue disparity with the Reds, then clearly we are all barking up the wrong tree. Forget Billy Ball, forget arguing about trades and all the petty statistics, which by the way never touch on the most important part of a TEAM appoach, intangibles such as a guy's attitude, drive, makeup, and work ethic, let's instead focus on building the best advertising department, the best meida sale force, and let's also blame the previous seasons on the fans themselves since we didn't attend enough games. Sure, it;s hard to go to games when the team is horrid, but apparently we are also to blame that the team is bad because we choose not to go down there and vomit in our seats at the wretched play. The Cards model is surely different than Billy Ball, but it got them a couple championships and a World Series ring or two, so how can you mock Jocketty;s methods?

If their model works, then maybe we should start emulating it. A transparent relationship between Castellini and the fans, a statement from him outling how much he would increase spending each year based on a graduated scale of attendance, might incentivize fans to go late in the year, buy into helping build the future, and take pride in contributing. Seems to me he made some vague comments, but a concret charting of attendance to profit returned to budget might make going to a game a civic investment. Look at UC football, they basically said if fans increase season attendance and reach a certain number in the bowl tickets, better things can happen in the future.

As for advertising dollars and media income, would you happen to have a comparison over the last three years of the difference between the Reds and the Cards? You quoted that there was a substantial diffence. It would be interesting and educational to all here to know just how much more the Cards generate in those two specific areas. Advertsing, and TV radio cable.

'ppreciate it, keep the cards and letter coming.

 
at 1:43 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

ricknmd..you prove my point..anyone suggesting that one or two players is gonna turn this franchise around next year is spewing garbage..thanks for your support. Problems on this franchise run deep.

24/7 u continue to make excuses..fact of the matter was he was injured the majority of the time..What is..is..

Hey,I never said ken griffey purposefully did this to us.Yet, you simply do not sign a 30 year old ballplayer to a ten year contract

Arroyo.."a little inconsistent" PLEASE too funny

Reaganspad..our record last year with Mr Arroyo was what?

I like the guy he has great stuff. But he has to be one of the most perplexing players on the team

Reaganspad I am not a doomer and gloomer. But if you want me to agree with you that the Reds are somehow gonna take off and have a miraculous turnaround..Ill just wait and see

reganspad.. considering the history of this team..i think most even keeled level headed mature adults would temper their enthusiasm until results are being shown on the field

And Ill prove my point..

Lets say ..God forbid ..Aaron Harang gets hurt .. Every player on this team aside from maybe Phillips and Cordero ..although having potential..is a real big IF. Every player

Votto.. 1st base less than 1 full year in the majors

Gonzalez..streaky as all get up

Encarnacion..ditto for him

Griffey who really cares but how many games he gonna miss this year?

Bruce CF..never played a major league game..who know? Freel and hopper who knows? They certainly dont appear to be everyrday players

Dunn.. god love him he is what he is

No catcher

All middle relievers ..they stink

Arroyo takes half a year off..has done so in his 2 seasons in Cincinnati and also did the same in Boston

Bailey .. unproven.. a work in progress

I see lots of question marks and some great potential. I just want to see everything come together before going nutso over this team

But enjoy your fantasy

 
at 4:06 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

Jack, you won't read this because it comes from boxscores and you want to "feel" that Bronson is so bad:

Follow the thread here if you do read.

Start 1 BA goes 7+ and 2 inherited runners score in you guessed it the 8th

start 2
7.0 4 2 2 2 4 0 3.86
Game lost 3-2 in the 8th

Start 3 4 Unearned Runs
The Cubs sealed their victory over the Reds with a five-run seventh (7-0)

Start 4 After being staked to a four-run lead following seven strong innings by starter Bronson Arroyo, three Reds relievers combined to surrender five runs in the eighth inning.

Start 5 again 7 strong inn
Slugger Albert Pujols snapped a 1-1 tie in the eighth innings with a two-run double.

Start 6 & 7 he won both

Start 8 Dodgers 2-0
6 innings pitched

Start 9 pads 3, Reds 2
Bronson throws 129 pitches.
I wonder why he was still pitching? inconsistancy???
Oh yes, the pads score 2 unearned runs.

Bronson pitches well enough to win 8 of his first 9 games, (starting hot like in 06). Then throws 129 pitches because we have no 7-8th inning bullpen. Remember, a manager lost his job for that later.

Granted, Bronson goes cold for 4 of the next 5 starts, but imagine where he is with bullpen help. He is not pitching the 9th in San Diego, that is where he is. Peavy didn't pitch this game into the
9th

"Rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff gets a bases-loaded walk in the ninth inning for the winning run. Right-hander Jake Peavy allowed two runs in the first, then settled down for the next six innings but didn't factor in the decision."

 
at 4:30 PM Anonymous rickNmd said...

Dude in Blue Ash, I didn't prove your point. Your only point is win or lose, everything else is an excuse. If you really followed this team over the years you'd know the issues. You don't and you refuse to learn about them. I have no patience with that sort fanhood.

 
at 4:42 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

reaganspad..i really think its time to put closure on this thread.

and I really don't want to dampen your enthisiasm

yet..you can micro analyze every nuance of every player ..every situation ..etc..

but..the bottom line..in seven years we have not had a winning season

how many playoff games have we had in 19 years?

reganspad..you can be married to what you perceive is the most wonderful gal in the world..a churchgoer..a great cook..a wonderful mother etc..

conversely..if shes fooling around on ya and committing adultery..shes a piece of crap. no excuses

the Reds are what they are..regardless of individual accomplishments..injuries..potentia, stats.. scouting reports uniform color, managers, general managers etc..

The bottom line..they simply have not been very good and until I see results on the field, I will temper my enthusiasm

 
at 6:13 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

rick you did prove my point..the problems are much more in depth than adding a ballplayer or 2 as you also confirmed

read your post

this thread is over for me everything has been discussed ad nauseum

 
at 6:28 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

Jack, whenever your sordid rants get proved wrong, you go really gobal and talk about how the reds were no good in 1987.

They were in fact not that good then, and you were probably bashing the 90 team, with no Cobra, how they gonna win, retread manager, no pitching?

And to close the thread, you have no clue how good Arroyo is

 
at 6:29 PM Anonymous ErikNevada said...

"how many playoff games have we had in 19 years?"

we won a world series 17 1/2 yrs ago....

Since we've had bad ownership, bad drafts, bad farm system, bad pitching, poor attendence, bad free agent signings (Griff/milton), and that has bred a losing culture within the players and management. Bob will find out a way to turn this ship around, already we have a better farm system, a solid ace, a closer, good defense up the middle, a good line-up with solid L/R mixes, and depth to cover injuries. These seem like luxuries compared to the last 17 yrs, and its hard for me not to see it turning into wins. One or two moves doesn't do anything, this much is obvious, but one or two a year will do us wonders after they start adding up. I knew we were underperforming last year, mackanin turning the team around. if a manager with zero experience can turn this club into a winning team without a rotation or a bullpen then that shows me all I needed to see. winning cures all, players played better, tried harder, played the game the right way, and picked each other up when the team won, we saw all that at the end of last year. We are way better with more depth and experience this year and I think that will translate into a fun team to watch, and a winning record. playoffs? I truly don't see it yet because we don't quite have the starters to guarantee it. possible...yes, but next year or the year after is a little more realistic. This team had no talent and went 80-82, and played winning baseball the last half of last year. So lets give them a chance, not no chance. The past seven years is exactly that...the past

 
at 6:55 PM Anonymous ErikNevada said...

24/7 - I hear ya on the garza/bailey. Bailey's got the stuff, he obviously wasnt the "savior" everyone said he was or thought he was last year. Again the belisle harang comparison wasnt my post originally I dont want credit for it

Reagans - I saw that game where arroyo walked in the winning run, that last pitch was high but it wasn't a ball, I was screaming bad call after that game, the ump just wanted to go home.

Jack - last thing (you may respond but I wont), our record the last 7 years is a stat, and you were quick to bring up arroyo's stats when it helped your argument, we all use stats it seems
also we can make trades in the middle of the year so dont think this team is set yet.

 
at 7:48 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

eriknevada,

yea i dont think belisle is an ace candidate but a #2 or #3 is feasible...and this is simply conjecture but i think by june the reds will be happy they didn't trade bailey...it just seems like he's one of those guys who can turn it on and off and with all of his shortcomings/stock droppings, he might be motivated. that and the fact he might not make the rotation (which would be stupid by reds mgmt).

jack,

i'm done b/c you ignore the facts several of us are telling you

if none of what we say is right, what DID make the reds so bad?

bad mgmt? said it

bad signings? said it

bad managers? said it

firing of good mgrs? said it

bad farm? said it

cheap ownership? said it

2 owners, 3 gms and 5 mgrs since 9/11? said it

lack of aggressiveness to field a winning product? said it

dissenting for the sake of dissent is...well, sad.

 
at 8:19 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

reganspad..erik


I think you both need to calm down and deal with realities. Perhaps it would be best not to make any sports team the foundation of your existence

They have not been very good for many years. Maybe some of these changes will help this team out. Maybe not

You say we are "way better".. I say.. I have not seen a single game played on the field at this point in time

Again..I use my Bengals analogy..I say that one or two more players will take them to the playoffs.. Marvin just has to do better this year.. I just know Marvin will..Too funny.

Really guys u need to start dealing with certain realities and quit making excuses for such terrible play the majority of the past 17 years

Lets hope they do better

 
at 9:49 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

to the fans that care,

im hyped about this year considering we have a real manager with a real bullpen, seeing how those two were the 4 most griped about things on the blog last year (dunn and krivsky of course).

not that it will change, its cincinnati folk/fans were talkn about but wins should translate from at least our bullpen and managerial moves.

not to mention our entangibles like a clear mind from gonzo, belisle in a do or die year, dunn in a contract year, and the mindset of a team that doesn't feel doomed from the start.

guys like griff and dunn had to look around and scoff at bob c's declaration of winning returning to cincinnati.

they brought in sarloos and lohse, and retained the services of cormier and stanton on silly contracts.

narron was still the plan in redsland.

no major additions to a constantly improving league and sept. callups equals 90 losses and a loafing club.

i think 88-closer to 90 wins it this year.

we're a couple tweaks away, and not necessarily a big rotation pickup.

maybe another bullpen arm, you can't have enough pitching the great(ly loathsome) charlie hustle once said...

volquez is out of options so i dont know how he's not a lock

but if the reds didn't want to use bailey this year they would have did alot better job "creating competition" in the rotation than jeremy affeldt, career 5+ era starting.

but he is a good bullpen addition, and i dont know if people realize we went from 2 reliable relievers to 5, including a healthy bill bray.

 
at 11:53 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

24-7. 2 of 5 issues. Blogger Sucks is the 5th.

i disagree on Belisle. He had moments, like his no-hitter where you could just see him growing up. He blew it by not throwing fastballs, but that could come.
I was not sure what we had in Harrang the first year we got him, but you could see him learning.

The difference in Harrang/Arroyo and the others today is the way they can spot the fastball.

Belisle can do it, he just needs the catcher who will kick his butt when he doesn't spot his fastball, and not get beat on his
4th best pitch

And Homer, lets face it, he is nuke LaLusche right now, absolutely in love with his heater. He needs to throw the offspeed

 
at 7:23 AM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

24/7

the bullpen has not changed that dramatically..dusty baker..when given a team in transition( and younger players) in Chicago was fired.

there is no such thing as a "contract year" in baseball ..Dunn will make big bucks whether he stays or leaves

Gonzalez batted for average last year ..his streakiness had nothiong to do with a mind that was not clear. hes been streaky all his career

no team feels doomed from the start in spring training

reganspad..you ever seen Bailey pitch in person..if not go to any junior college and watch a pitcher throw a curveball..I like Homer..but he does not have a major league curveball at this time

 
at 11:21 AM Blogger 24/7 said...

reaganspad,

bailey is definitely infatuated with his fireball

but can you see a cocky proud texan such as himself not making the rotation because he wasn't good enough?

or getting demoted in may with a 5.4 era and falling off the map and out of grace?

i just dont know if belisle will ever be a #1 but a 2 or 3 is great for a guy who can't pitch out of the stretch.

he does have a strikeout pitch, which is crucial but again, i don't know if his pure stuff is quite like harang's.

if he works on keeping the ball down with men on base and drops a run this yr, i'll buy him as an ace candidate.

i actually think arroyo spots his changeup so well that his fastball need not be perfect like harang.

harang has a plus change too but he's a power pitcher at heart. when harang misses with his heat, it leaves the park. luckily he's among the 4 best in the nl so it doesnt happen often.

roy oswalt is the best pitcher in the nl, IMO.

been absolute ace for the longest. the reds NEVER touch him. nobody ever mentions him, its always peavy and webb.

 
at 12:12 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

Sorry Jack "the bullpen has not changed that dramatically"

Cordero at sub 3 and Burton were not available to us first half last year.
It got so bad we used Saarloos. That is dramatic change

I also disagree on Bailey's curveball. it is decent, he just doesn't throw it enough. He controls it fine, but is in love with his heater.

Agreed 24, that Bailey has the swagger. Belisle could use a little bit of that. His issue is not his stuff, but the stuff between his ears.

Pitching from the stretch is a good example. that is about focus

 
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