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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Friday, January 18, 2008

Arbitration numbers for Belisle, Phillips

Today was the day arbitration numbers were filed:

The Reds filed $1 million for Matt Belisle. He countered at $1.65 million.

The Reds filed $2.7 million for Brandon Phillips. He countered at $4.2 million.

Belisle made $390,000 last year; Phillips $407,000. Arbitration is baseball's form of the lottery -- expect every player who is offered it hits the jackpot.


at 6:13 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lots of greediness

Jack in Blue Ash

at 6:44 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the Reds should win the Belisle case, while Phillips deserves every penny of that 4.2 million.

at 7:05 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

give B-Phils the $ he deserves it.

at 7:13 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm surprised at Phillips' low demand - expected much higher. I do think he's a valuable commodity - I hope they reach agreement without breaching the peace.

at 7:23 PM Anonymous schlemdog said...

PAY PHILLIPS. Why not do what the Indians did with their young guys, sign him to a 3 year deal for $20 million or something like that. They need to lock Phillips up before he gets close to Free Agency when NY, BOS, DET, Cubs, etc will throw money at him. PAY PHILLIPS!!!

at 7:53 PM Anonymous redsfanwoody said...

I'd like to see anyone who calls the players greedy reject that kind of cash.Do I think the money is excessive, yes! But would you turn down a chance to get the highest salary you could? I don't begrudge anyone one the money they make honestly.

They are fortunate enough to make this kind of dough. I would imagine anyone else in there shoes would take the same approach.

A Salary Cap would be very beneficial to the owners,but I would doubt they would keep tickets prices the same if they had one.

at 8:10 PM Blogger Grizzlyfox said...

Not surprised at all at Brandon's #. I dont think he'd win his case though, the obp is really low, GABP inflated RH HRs, throw in the fact he's still got a couple more years of this ahead of him and I just dont think it'd happen. Maybe they settle at 3.7.

at 8:55 PM Blogger Pat said...

It's just hard to buy a ticket, when you make a fraction of the money they make. And I make decent money.

at 9:16 PM Blogger Gene in WV said...

My prediction, a little different take.

Belisle wins his arbitration, Phillips loses his. With the market value assesed to pitching, anyone close to 500 as a starter, close to double digit wins, will get that amount almost anywhere.

Phillips is worth more, but first time in arbitration, still two years away from free agency, 2.7 mil. is fair ist time around.

I, too, would like to see them lock him up longterm, but I think they will wait one more year to prove to themselves he is legit.

at 10:17 PM Anonymous prose14 said...

wanted to email you this John but couldn't find your email on this site??...

You want to know why you can safely assume the Reds will struggle AGAIN in 2008 ? Take a look at the numbers of the 2008 Reds two projected "key" middle of the order hitters .......

hitter 1
2002 .264 BA .211 BA with RISP
2003 .247 BA .114 BA with RISP
2004 .253 BA .329 BA with RISP
2005 .301 BA .263 BA with RISP
2006 .252 BA .216 BA with RISP
2007 .277 BA .244 BA with RISP

hitter 2
2002 .249 BA .208 BA with RISP 170 Ks
2003 .215 BA .170 BA with RISP 126 Ks
2004 .266 BA .239 BA with RISP 195 Ks
2005 .247 BA .248 BA with RISP 168 Ks
2006 .234 BA .221 BA with RISP 194 Ks
2007 .264 BA .241 BA with RISP 165 Ks

FURTHERMORE, these two hitters will combine to use up a third of team payroll. Also Remember the Reds play in one of the most offense-friendly parks in baseball. You look up at the numbers of those two guys who will very likely hit 3/4 or 4/5 in the lineup and it means STRANDED RUNNERS and RUNS LOST for the Reds.

And before some saber type chimes in about OBP rather than looking at BA and BA with RISP. THESE ARE YOUR MIDDLE OF THE ORDER RBI GUYS. These aren't top of the order or bottom of the order hitters. If these guys take a walk it shifts the onus of driving in runs to the likes of A. Gonzales, D. Ross the streaky Encarnacion? or who knows who else?? You wont win counting on Ross, Gonzales or Encarnacion to do your heavy lifting run producing.

This is awful. Awful Awful Awful. And it's nothing NEW. Reds have 6 years of Evidence right in front of their nose yet they are cued up for a 7th year of the same. Very sad indeed...............

I defy anyone to find another team in baseball with 2 of their 3/4/5 hitters that have numbers as lousy as those above.

at 12:04 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Texas Rangers: Agreed to terms with catcher Gerald Laird on a one-year contract; named Johnny Narron special assignment coach.

Does Milton Bradley get his own "special assignment coach"? Or, does Narron special assignment coach/babysit both of them?

at 12:43 AM Blogger Mr. Redlegs said...

If projected numbers had any relevance whatsoever past picking a fantasy team there would never be a need to play a single game.

at 8:54 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

prose 14 .. excellent post especially when you also consider the terrible middle relief on this team

They added a closer and lost one of the best defensive center fielders in the league . I am not that excited

Mr Redlegs all you have done is quote stats and/or scouting reports to substantiate your arguments on this blog. When someone else does it, you then deny its viabilty You should call yourself Mr Hypocrite

Jack in Blue Ash

at 9:07 AM Blogger docproc said...

Please sign Brandon Phillips to a multi-year deal. Soon. Don't let arbitration (and it's nasty bickering) get anywhere close to this key player in our lineup.

at 10:35 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good research Prose14. And of course you're correct, the Reds in 2008 will be the 7th-9th (or worst) "best" team in the NL and finish 3 or 4 spots behind the wild card standings leader...

But with Narron's lineup changes, didn't we have like, oh, 15 different guys hit in the 3, 4, and 5 spots from 2006-07?

Without more pitching quality, the Reds can improve their 3-5 spot hitting considerably and most of the 36 games (from 2007) where the opponents scored 8+ runs will still be losses--they'll just be closer games; here is a very good lineup (for any NL team) heading into 2008, so I doubt OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION will be the BIGGEST Reds' problems when it comes to actually winning games!

Leadoff: Keppinger SS
2nd: Phillips 2B
3rd: Griffey RF
4th: Dunn LF
5th: Bruce CF
6th: Votto 1B
7th: EE 3B
8th: Catcher Du Jour
9th: Rag Arm Du Jour

Not too bad! Competitive assuming Votto and Bruce and Keppinger win their positions in spring training!

Pay da man hez money (Phillips) and sign him to a long-term deal (if the Reds don't do this, then whomever is responsible for failing to lock Phillips up should be fired).

at 12:32 PM Anonymous Prose14 said...

yes, lineup shakeups had others in key rbi slots as well but if dunn and griff were in the lineup they were usually hitting somewhere 3/4/5/6...

and yes it goes without saying there are other issues with the reds including RELIEF PITCHING...

However, let me lay one more on you... "pitching, defense and TIMELY hitting" are the 3 age-old time honored components of winning baseball .... The reds have a third of their payroll wrapped up in two guys who do none of the three.

You're just not going to build a winning team with Griff/Dunn hitting in the middle of the order, providing not good to lousy corner defense, walking to their positions and using up a third of team payroll.

at 1:41 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

"wanted to email you this John but couldn't find your email on this site??..."

John you are lucky he didn't find your email.

at 2:18 PM Blogger BTB Reds Fan said...

One thing though is how can you bash EE for his run producing ability? Are you saying he couldn't hit rbi's?

He drove in 72 and 76 rbi's the last two years and only played 117 games in 06 and with the demotion that got his head back on straight only 139 games in 07. Look for EE to break out I don't know where to look up RISP stats because most people seem to think they aren't a good stat to display I don't know why but I'm curious about his.

at 2:44 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anderson makes sense on our 40-man, given the dearth of left-handed outfielders/hitters in our system. Oh, wait, um...

I still need to know why a certain right-handed hitting 1st/2nd/3rd baseman was let go...

at 2:46 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ken Rosenthal just posted on msn.com that the Reds have reached a one year deal pending physical, with Jeremy Alfeldt, a lefty from the Rockies. The plan is to convert him into a starter.

at 3:09 PM Blogger Grizzlyfox said...

Here's some #'s for you prose- Reds 07 NL central rankings- 1st in OBP and SB, 2nd in AVG, Runs, RBI, AB/HR, XB Hits, SLG, and HR. I know this is hard for some people to understand, but Adam Dunn's low avg with RISP is not why this team loses. Theres this stat out there that measures wins by a batter and I believe Dunn was something like 22nd last year. Saying this offense is the reason why this team won't win is ignorant. If Votto and Bruce are the real deal and Gonzo plays like he should in this park there's no reason to believe that the Reds won't lead the NL Central in most of those offensive categories. However having the highest divisional era will prevent them from doing very much.

at 3:24 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Orioles almost sent Bedard and Brian Roberts to the Cubs this week.

The debate over whether the Reds should go after Bedard has been the fun debate of the off season for Reds fans, but I think we can all agree that it would not be a good thing for Bedard to land somewhere else in the Central.

at 3:26 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Orioles almost sent Bedard and Brian Roberts to the Cubs this week.

The the question of whether the Reds should go after Bedard has been the fun debate of the off season for Reds fans, but I think we can all agree that it would not be a good thing for Bedard to land somewhere else in the Central.

at 3:28 PM Anonymous Josh from Wilmington said...

You heard it first here by me: The Reds have agreed on a one year contract with FA pitcher, and former Colorado Rockie, Jeremy Affeldt on a $3M deal. The 28 year old went 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 59 appearances last year for the NL Champion Rockies. He is expected to compete for a role in the starting rotation.

at 3:53 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

"EE to break out I don't know where to look up RISP stats because most people seem to think they aren't a good stat to display I don't know why but I'm curious about his."

Encarnacion hit .360 last season with RISP.

at 3:55 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

another project and not a sure bet. in the 'pen is where affeldt belongs. get rid of stanton the first bases loaded walk he gives up. we need a sureshot lefty in the rotation, not another valenzuela/belisle

at 5:52 PM Blogger Jon said...

Didn't Phillips man the 4 hole last year? He was commended for his "bravery" by McCanin...Just throwing that out there.

at 11:38 PM Blogger Chris at Redleg Nation said...

Not sure "lottery" is entirely fair, as it implies that these guys are getting these paydays by luck or random chance.

The truth is that arbitration is the pivot point where players go from woefully underpaid (in the scheme of the game's salary structure) to making something that approximates market value.

Then they hit free agency, where they usually make more than they contribute, at least at the back half of their deals. (Teams can overpay vets b/c they underpay rookies).

As always, if you don't like what ballplayers earn, don't go to the games. (Spend your money on movies or TV, since those guys don't make any money at all). :)

at 10:22 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Go ahead and sign Phillips. He is a bargain at his asking price.

at 5:10 PM Blogger reds39 said...

Greediness? You're a moron. Phillips is a steal at 4.2 million. The kid is a top tier offensive second baseman, a stand-out, Gold-Glove contending defender and a key piece in the Reds future. He's also a helluva nice dude. What more could you possibly want? Time to pony-up the scratch.

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