Pitching pickings slim
With Jon Lieber and Jason Jennings signing, the thin starting pitching free agent class is a bit thinner.
Let's see: Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez, Josh Fogg, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Kris Benson, Brett Tomko and Steve Trachsel are still out there.
Signing any of them isn't going to cause a rush on the ticket window at Great American.
I think Lohse will be too expensive. I wouldn't sign Garcia or Colon because of health issues. Signing a veteran who's not ready on Opening Day defeats the purpose because you'd have to begin the year with one of the young pitchers in the rotation any way.
That leaves Hernandez, Benson, Fogg, Tomko and Trachsel. Benson has healthy issues of his own, but he's thrown for scouts and is apparently healthy. Fogg, who went, 10-9 with 4.94 ERA for Colorado has the best numbers of the bunch.
I know the answer but I'll ask anyway: Would you sign any of the above, or go with the young guys?
59 Comments:
With what is left, I'll probably go with the young guys. I might try Benson if I could sign him to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp. The only other option appaears to be a trade during spring training. Speaking of which, any comments from John Allen on his Arizona trip?
The wider question is:
Do any of those free agent retreads and broken-down mules make the Reds a playoff contender in 2008?
No.
So why bother with them?
Let the kids pitch.
But the Reds need an "innings eater, you say!"
What good is an innings eater who gets his brains beat in and you still have to go into your (questionable) bullpen too often and too early?
This idea of an "innings eater" has never made an ounce of common sense unless the guy can keep you in the game. Who among the retreads and brown-down mules can do that? Who among them can win more than he loses?
And no, that doesn't mean selling the house for Bedard. Winning in 2008 isn't as important as having a foundation of young, exceptional talent under wraps for six years and building something with roots.
Let the young guys grow up as a team, and we'll contend for years.
In todays "immediate gratification" wired world, everyone want's everything NOW.
Let's do it the right way. Build through the farm system so that there won't be stretches of 15-20 years of below average baseball in Cincinnati.
Im still thinking Krivsky will make a trade before the season starts. Adding someone like Blanton puts us right in the central mix.
Yes, we know the pitching pickings are slim. What else is new? Why would Lohse be considered at any price? We caught his act last season. Tomko, you have got to kidding, how about David Wells? I thought you (John Fay) had some semblance of baseball intelligence. I know the Reds off-season has been about as exciting as hunting worms in the desert but you need to come up with something a bit more interesting that stating over and over again that pitching pickings are slim and will the Reds sign another worn out has been off of the trash heap.
Why not write that with all of the money that the Reds must have received from Duke Energy kick-backs they could probably afford to outbid the Yankees or Red Sox for Santana. Now that would make for some interesting reading.
I'd go with Livan, MVP in world series a few years back, and good under pressure, gives a lot of innings per year
John, how much do you think it would take to sign Livan Hernandez? He's the only one I'd be interested in over the young guys. Would it take a multi year deal?
I think you need to start the young guys and see what they are made of. We need to see if they can handle the big leagues or if they come up and bomb like Dumatrait. It might be a long year and a bit of a learning process just to see how good Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, or Volquez any of them are, but I think I would rather see what our farm system has produced than spend money on an average at best pitcher. It's disgusting how much money these pitchers are getting. It's like a student who got C's all through school all of the sudden getting an executive job just because the company needs someone for that job. I also think that it would be crazy to trade Bruce for Bedard straight up.
I would say that it is important that the Reds do not simply feel the need to "do something" and end up wasting money. Do I hear an Amen from the Eric Milton corner?
If they could have brought in a Bedard I would have done it, but give me the young guys versus a guy who has proven year after year that he consistently stinks like Fogg.
I think unfortunately you're going to have to sign one of these guys. Young arms tend to wear out as they adjust to the longer seasons in MLB. This puts a strain on the bullpen. Hernandez is probably the best of that bunch. Lohse I've seen enough. Benson is coming off a major surgery. Frankly, the attempt to sign Bedard was the right idea. Shame something couldn't work out. Problem with Blanton is he'd cost most like Bailey+ or Votto+ and he's not really near the pitcher Bedard is. I still wish WK or Jockety could find a way to get EB here. If one compared the WHIP, runs allowed, groundballs and K's of Bedard and plugged him into our rotation there'd be an amazing turn around in runs allowed. I just hope our young arms are not injured this year through overwork. Asking both Bailey and Cuetto to make the leap will involve one of them (my guess Bailey due to control issues) for a bullpen crisis.
John, what is the status of EZ? I keep hearing Bailey, Maloney, Volquez, and Cueto as the contenders forthe last two slots. He was dominant during the first half of '06. What happened? WHy is he not in the discussion. It seemed to me at the time like he hit his innings limit and started to show fatgue in his rookie year, but I figured we'd have seen more of him by now. As for the choice of young guys and those mentioned, young guys. Though there has to be something via trade. Something without Bruce or Bailey and Cueto together. Not Bedard or Blanton, but something.
Competition breeds excellence so in my opinion you have to ad a veteran. I would sign Tomko or Benson for the simple reason of competition. Granted there will be four young guys fighting for two spots but I believe if you ad a veteran it will help tremendously. It should bring out the best in the four young guys. Without a veteran you could get the same amount of production out of some of the young guys, but why take a chance on ruining their futures. Confidence can be lost or gained by pitching in the majors, I would not want to take the chance on ruining ANY of the four young guys by rushing them along.
How about signing Benson, Colon, and Tomko all to minor league deals. Give each of them a Major league invite to spring training. From there decide on trying to keep at least one of them and allow the other two to either sharpen up in Louisville during the season and/or let the remaining vanish off into the sky. If you are able to secure minor league deals for small money how much could you really be out? Im mean both Benson and Colon should come by rather cheap considering both have been injured much of the past few seasons. With Tomko he should come by even cheaper due to his recent track record. You never know Tomko could be converted into a innings eating reliever. With the Reds recent track record with young starters and the amount of innings they pitch, he could turn out to be just what the Reds are looking for out of the bullpen. This would allow are 7th, 8th, and 9th inning guys to stay fresh for the dog days of summer.
Have a call into John Allen. He didn't return my call yesterday, which is unusual.
EZ Ramirez signed a minor league deal with Houston. I always like him. But his shoulder remains an issue.
poynorch,
Ramirez signed a minor league deal with Texas, the same day Hamilton was traded there.
cliff lee, bedard or a hidden gem.
none of those guys on the list is going to give us a guy with an ERA under 4.5. yea some might eat innings, but those are still 4.9 runs per nine innings. not good enough.
i wont be mad if we stand pat because in reality this probably should be the year we see what at least 2 of our young guns can do. only having one in the rotation doesn't help us for 2009 when we have 4 guys with at least #3 ceiling that need to be evaluated some. even with inexperience, all of the cumulative changes to the club thus far has to account for a good number of wins...new mgr with no respect to earn...lights out back end of our bullpen...a mgr that will work with EE, not just send him to louisville...no lohse, milton, cormier, saarloos, santos, etc....votto at first should up production there...you seen what improved morale and more than one reliable reliever did for THAT team last year...this one aint even a finished product and its already better.
remember...
arroyo had a 3.29 era in 240 innings in 06. harang had a 3.76 last year
i am worried about belisle and pitching from the stretch
worried about our opening day bullpen which will be...
cordero
weathers
burton
bray
pretty good right? here's the rest
majik
stanton
valenzuela
coffey next in line at louisville
the BIG question is...
bailey or cueto?
volquez is a virtual lock for the rotation, and belisle is a sure thing. cueto's minor league stats say he has much more control and may be decent from the start. bailey had serious control issues but he may be able to make a matt garza like jump.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/homer-bailey.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/matt-garza.shtml
Neither Bailey nor Volquez will be at AAA, so that gives us Harang-Arroyo-Bailey-Volquez to start the season in the rotation. By the end of April, when we need a 5th starter, I hope they go with Cueto instead of Belisle.
Go with the youngsters!
Why pay $4M or whatever for a marginal veteran?
I'd say, that by keeping all the young guys that they are pushing towards 2009-2010, that you go ahead and put the young guys in the rotation, just like Detroit did when they were losing 119 games in 2003 with Maroth and Bonderman, etc. It does them no good to be in Louisville again this year. Next year when Griffey and Dunn are off the books, it offers you more flexibility in finding specific needs, instead of spending to spend
With the amount of young starting pitching that the Indians have, getting Cliff Lee should not take much. He is a good starting pitcher and getting him is the decision I would make if it was up to me. Of course, I am not the GM but I have to believe that Cliff Lee would be a good starter for the Reds. He is from Arkansas like me and has proven he can be a good major league pitcher. I really hope that the Reds make a trade for him.
If we stay with what we now have in terms of pitching, I'm ok ! With Walt J. on board I think we will now make some good calls!I also want to thank Bob C. for that hire! We will now improve....I'm joining the crowd WAKE UP CINCY FIRE KRIVSKY! HE is a PR train wreck!!!
Playing with two young pitchers in the rotation is bad baseball. It would be taking two steps forward with Cordero signing and taking three steps back with two rookies starting. In this blog I thought all "Reds' fans" wanted to win now rather than later. If the team and Mr. Castellini wants a winner now, its time to take some risks and get a bonified pitcher for the rotation. Then let the chips fall wherever. If it doesn't work, it won't be for not trying.....
None of the "free" agents are worth it, they're all 4s and 5s. These guys will not be difference makers. Go with what you got. The way to contend over the LONG HAUL is to continue to develop your own and it's incredibly encouraging to see that the Reds have several viable players in the pipeline. I, for one, am looking forward to seeing guys like Bruce, Cueto and Votto play.
Mr. Redlegs is exactly right, about everything is said.
/chokes self/
I want Livan. I love that guy. Those Bugs Bunny pitches are laughable, but they don't cease to make your mouth drop when a guy swings like four times before the pitch gets to the plate. And he is a workhorse. Even when he's hurt, he still throws 200 innings - has for the past ten years. Prone to the longball in recent years, which wouldn't be good for GABp, and that's a huge risk. But he doesn't give up too many more than Bronson.
I wouldn't mind having him on the team. Besides, aren't we just buying time until Cueto and Maloney can pitch for Cincy?
Livan is just fun to watch. I got to watch him when I lived near San Fran and again when I lived in DC, and I really like the guy. Could be an asset for the young guys, too.
Good grief -- when was the last time the Reds went a whole season with the starting rotation intact? Be it injury or poor performance, there is ALWAYS a need for more than 5 starters.
The Reds need for a solid starter is not to keep the young arms in aaa or to hinder their development; that starter is needed to allow those young pitchers to achieve without getting abused and overworked.
The Reds have two (2) proven starting pitchers as of today. If anyone here thinks that this can translate into a competitive team, please state such so that your opinion can be weighted appropriately.
If your belief is that the Reds won't compete anyway and thus you want the young guys to play more, I can repect that but disagree for the above reasons (depth foremost).
But fot those already willing to write off 2008, I have to ask: When will it be ok to expect a contending team in Cincinnati? I am getting tired of paying for the 2 or 3 trips I get up there and the 6 or 8 games I can attend just for the 'experiance' and ambiance. I must think that season ticket holders are even more fed up than I...
Can anyone really say that this team is going to compete this year? Or the year after that? If the Reds lose 80-90 games this year, how do they convince Adam Dunn to come back? If he doesn't come back, how do you replace his offense? Chances are Jr. won't be re-upped at 16 mil no matter what happens this year. So there you go, next year all of the sudden you lose a good portion of your offense. We already for the upcoming year have lost Hamilton's offense. Can Jay Bruce and Votto be expected to contribute Jr. and Dunn type numbers next year? Unlikely, two years from now? Still unlikely. By then you will need to deal with re-upping Phillips and Encarnacion, and aging , high priced pitchers. This team has a chance to compete this year. Competing now is likely the only way to get Dunn to stay, especially at a reduced rate. Among Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and Votto and the rest of a stacked farm system, they might have to overpay but they can acquire someone that can make an impact. There is no reason to believe though that a stacked farm system will ever lead to anything, just go ask the Devil Rays. The Dodgers have been stacked for quite a while now too, but don't ever get too far.
Hernandez is the only one that I like on the list. He's the most likely to give 200 innings.
Save the money, let the kids pitch. Let's see what they've got and let them grow throwing to big league hitters.
I still would not be surprised to see a deal go through during the spring but if it doesn't I'll pay money to see a young up and coming pitcher throw way before I'll pay money to watch a has-been on the way out.
Get Benson or Tomko, preferably Benson. Mark my words: Benson will have a decent year this year, whoever he signs with. You heard it here first.
(I'm hoping that if I'm completely wrong I can come back and edit this post.)
If Benson is looking good and healthy I'd go for him, but otherwise none of those guys are worth it. To be honest, I still think we should trade Bruce for pitching. Him having 140 RBIs will not get the Reds in the playoffs. A pitcher like Bedard joining the team will. I guarantee you that by mid-summer the vast majority of these posters are going to be wishing we had gotten a good pitcher while we could have, regardless of how well Bruce is doing. And they'll also all be ragging him for his strikeouts. I like Bruce and I want to see him do well, but right now he is surplus on hitting and it is only logical to trade your surplus for your deficiency (pitching.) Regardless of what happens though, I'm still pumped for next season.
Yes,Jocketty has arrived and just like in St. Louis he has a huge budget for free agents and a deep farm system to make blockbuster trades for that one or two pieces to push them over the top.
Oops I forgot.
This ain't St. Louis, there's no Anheuser or DeWitt money, no enormous radio and TV revenues, no fan base stretching so wide that 2 million in attendance is a bad year, that Krivsky has done absolutely nothing right in just two years, that the Reds should give away what little minor league talent they have to shoot for the moon in '08 and the magic drink of Kool-Aid is upon us all.
All because Jocketty is here to save the day.
Just after he left the Cardinals in shambles from top to bottom.
Yes, the Reds are playas now.
Bruce is a surplus?
With Hamilton gone? With Griffey one foot out the door? With Dunn's pending free agency status?
I musta fallen and hit my head on the snow-filled streets.
Hint: The Reds are NOT trading Bruce. Otherwise, they would have kept Hamilton.
I had forgotten about Lohse. I guess I'm in the minority, but I wouldn't mind seeing him back. I haven't been keeping up with him so perhaps there's absolutely no interest on his part - but he was very effective at times. I would not blow a gasket if I read tomorrow the Reds re-signed him.
just a couple of names that haven't been mentioned that maybe should . how about Mike Maroth or Odalis Perez. Both lefties who had rough years last year, but have had some success in the past. Not saying I particularly like either one, but not sure why their names haven't come up
Hey John, has there been any thought of signing Milton (if he is healthy) to a low risk contract? I never hear his name mentioned with other pitchers. I thought he was a good pitcher before he came here and it's dissappointing he was never healthy while he was here. He would add a much needed lefty to our rotation. Just an idea...
He had Tommy John surgery on June 9. So my guess is he won't ready ready until about then. i think he's looking at a minor league deal.
The problem with "letting the young guys pitch", is that if they get shelled, there's NO ONE to fall back on. I'm not saying that's the wrong way to go, but it is more than a little bit scary.
Hey John,
I like the young guys, but has a spring training trade already been ruled out? Remember, the Reds got Bronson Arroyo in a spring trade.
John C.
Las Vegas
Go with the young guys.
But I like the idea of trading for lefty Cliff Lee if we can get him without giving away the farm.
And please, no more Lohse. I'd MUCH rather see Shearn in the rotation (for fewer bucks) than Lohse.
What happens if the young guys perform just like last season's Homer Bailey? The Reds will finish with a sub-500 record. If they sign Hernandez- probably the best one available- and the young guy's somehow miraculously do amazing, then trade Hernandez before the all-star break for some more bullpen support. The LEAST Krivsky should do is sign a PROVEN starter who, yes, eats up innings so that when you get to the seventh you can feel confident in Bray to Weathers to Cordero. Who said there was anything wrong with being safe and taking a proven performer under pressure? Everyone says "all major-league ballclubs are bringing up kids to early" but if you "let the young guys fight it out" instead of letting them get a few starts in Louisville to get comfortable then they will be wildness and the Reds will be right back where they started- a non-playoff contender basically out of the race on opening day. Sign Hernandez, be safe. Make a trade to get a PROVEN pitcher, be safe. Don't gamble on the young guys yet. Don't rush them yet. Let them season for a while. No one's in a hurry. But what's a GREAT team made of?? Pitching: Rockies 07- PITCHING, Tigers 06' (Hopefully the Reds 08') PITCHING. Get Livan, do whatever it takes to get the best pitching possible going into opening day.Livan Hernandez is the best choice, though.
I wouldn't be against signing Livan Hernandez. He is the only one on that list that you know what you are going to get out of which is a 4.25 ERA, 220+ innings, and 10+ wins. On this staff he'd be the only one worthy of the #3 spot in the rotation.
However I would like to see a deal with Cleveland and try to acquire Cliff Lee. Perhaps a Drew Stubbs, Tyler Pelland, and Sam Lecure would do the trick.
Johnny
I would go wirh the young arms. You have two aces in Harang and Arroyo and one starter who could be above average in Matt Belisle and Bailey needs to get major league experience. Volquez (or however you spell his name) will probably make the rotation, but if he doesn't who does? I've noticed no one has thrown around the name Shearn...he's rookie yes, but he's older and more mature. Also if Lohse doesn't get any offers before spring training starts maybe his price tag will drop, besides last year he had a sub 3 ERA at GABP, so why no love for him?
-Rob
Far better to go with the young talent then to sign a retread. When was the last time that the Reds had 4 starters who could rush the ball up to the plate at 94 mph or better, while Arroyo pegs at 91, 92 mph. Harang clocks in at 94, Belisle 95, Bailey 96 and Volquez 97. My understanding is that Cueto comes in at 94, 95 mph too. Cueto & Maloney deserve chances if any of the first five flame out. Shearn backs up the backups and there is still Ramon Ramirez, Gardner, and Steven Kelly behind him.
I like the idea of signing Fogg or Tomko. Both are solid enough to anchor down a third spot in the rotation. Tomko is a veteran that could bring from experience to the mound in the starting sense and possibly help with the maturation of Baily and the other young prospects.
Fogg, I just feel that he might be a good fit for GABP. He throws a lot of sinking pitches, and could benefit from a thick infield grass.
That is why these two pitchers are the best candidate still on the fee agent market, for the Reds.
Volquez, Bailey should be given first shots, as both have been tabbed, and at the least need to pitch until they prove not capable at this level
One more thing on the SP front. Volquez is out of minor league options, that tells you that he has the 4th spot nailed down barring a complete breakdown. That really only leaves the 5th spot open for competition. I'm confident that either Bailey, Cueto or Maloney will step up to round out the staff in spectacular fashion.
Kriv should have had the young guys starting, and taking their lumps from day 1 LAST year...
Commit to the youth movement. If there's a plan and exciting young players on the horizon, we can wait!
If acquiring a pitcher, I'd say, ideally, go for a guy who is:
--young
--cheap
--left-handed
--a strikeout guy
I keep saying this on various threads, but I really want Jonathan Sanchez of San Fran.
Check out the unbelievable K rates, in both the majors and minors:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Jonathan-Sanchez.shtml
I agree with Mr. R, Docproc, Chris, etal,
With the guys available, we have a much better chance of two of the talented youngsters coming through, or Shearn and Livingston, than any of those veterans saving our bullpen, season, or anything else.
Two out of six having a pretty good year is actually prety good odds. Also, prevents trading away one of them that just might turn out to be a star. Lets hold on to what we got, give it a little more time, especially spring training, to see how things are going.
I can't for the life of me figure out why Lohse is so "expensive." The guy hasn't had a good year in a while, is unbelievably inconsistent, and doesn't provide a rotation with anything special. The Twins gave up on him and shunted him to the bullpen, and the Reds were lucky to get a prospect for him. He has only a little trade value. I just can't understand why he's somehow worth what people seem to think.
Agreeing with Mr. Redlegs, way above. Don't waste the money, let the kids pitch.
Off topic, but I came across a great article on all-time JUICED team! haha Obviously an all-star version of all players suspected of using performance enhancers. Great read...
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/16/all-time-teams-the-all-juiced-team/
Livan is the best of the retreads. He's a gamer, will throw some innings, and even gets a hit here and there. He's no worse than Belisle, whose time is short. If they acquired Blanton their situation would be much better, but who would they be willing to let go? Votto, Bailey, Maloney, who??? At least one of the young guys needs to pitch well to give the Reds a chance.
Maybe Benson to an incentive laden deal. Otherwise, I'd wait and see how the staff looks in spring training before making a deal. None of those guys will make or break your year.
It sounds like fan sentiment is split on this one. I say we need a veteran. Here's why:
It's a decent chance that 2 of our youngsters will have good years in the majors. But 3? That's pushing it.
It sounds great to say that we should let the young guys pitch. But it's important to remember that if Bailey and Cueto have breakout years, a veteran won't take any innings from them. He'll be taking innings from the 3rd best of the young guys. And that's worth the 3-4 million that it will take to sign one of these guys.
- Tim
I would be willing to trade Bruce for Bedard straight up only if they could extend Bedard's contract. It wouldn't be worth it for only 2 years. I would not sign Kris Benson, mostly because of his crazy wife. That chick is batty as Britney and an absolute media whore.
Bruce for Bedard would be a huge mistake. Wasting time and money on Tomko is a losing proposition. Let the kids pitch, let Spring Training determine who follows Harang and Arroyo in the rotation.
Signing Milton to a minor league deal is a good idea--if it's a minor league team in Kansas City's farm system.
Well Reds of Michigan, to answer your question, we will be very good. "What happens if the young guys perform just like last season's Homer Bailey?"
Bailey was 4-2 with 5.76 ERA
Our #5 Starter, Livingston 3-3 5.27 Saarloos 1-5 7.17 Shearn 3-0 4.96 Milton 0-4 5.17 Dumatrait 0-4 15.0 Ramierez 0-2 7.71
That is 34 Starts with ERA about 6.9xx and 7-18 record
We would be fine with Homer Bailey numbers 34 starts at 5.76 ERA and a .667 winning percentage.
First of all, consistancy is key. Belisle was ERA 5 plus, stretched out to 200 innings, close to a no hitter.
Isn't that what we are looking for on the scrap heap? 200 innings, 500 record. ERA about 5.
That was Matt Belisle last year, and he will be better this year.
It is that #5 starter we need to improve on. LivingstonSaarloosShearnMiltonDumatraitRamierez
Yes, Bruce is surplus. The difference between the Reds scoring 750 and 800 runs isn't going to matter much if they don't have good pitching.
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