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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Fogg to Reds?

The Rocky Mountain News is reporting the Reds and Josh Fogg are close to a deal. The right-handed went 10-9 last year

I talked to Wayne Krivsky. He said it's not a done deal but they've been talking. A $1 million deal does not guarantee a spot in the rotation, but it changes the dynamic of the competition.


at 8:59 PM Anonymous MONEY MIKE said...

any news on who is included in the deal?

at 9:01 PM Anonymous MONEY MIKE said...

Sorry, forgot he was a free agent.


at 9:08 PM Anonymous Chris said...

I think this is the best possible move at this point. You get a pitcher who miscalculated the market and is in need of a home, at a cheaper than market rate.

at 9:08 PM Anonymous Red Faced said...

I'm not sure what this move does for the Reds. Fogg is in reality no better than Belisle was last year and if I were a betting man I'd be willing to be Belisle has a much better year than Fogg does in 2008. All Fogg is going to do is keep the young guys from getting the experience they should.

The only way I see this making ANY sense is if there is another deal about to go down that involves some of our existing pitching probables going elsewhere.

at 9:12 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Belisle, Affeldt, Voloquez, Cueto, Maloney

(Trade Homer and another mid prospect Janish/Stubbs for Blanton) This rotation would have a lot of promise and could make the difference in competing with the Cubs and Brewers for the playoffs. Obviously Baker isn't that high on Bailey, he doesn't even know his last name. He called him Homer Bush in a televised interview.

I'm not big on Fogg but he is at least experienced and you kind of know what you are getting. We have no idea what we would get from a numbers 3-5 of Belisle, Bailey, Voloquez/Affeldt.

at 9:44 PM Anonymous J-Diggety said...

yep you know what your getting from Fogg, CRAP

at 9:45 PM Anonymous redfuture said...

I hope this is not true! This would definitely put a damper on my optimism. I know what Fogg can do whereas I can anticipate at least as good numbers from a young pitching stud.

at 9:47 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...


I can see this being good insurance if it is a minor league contract, but I assume this is a major league contact. If so, this is a horrible, horrible move and further shows the beginning of a great divide within Reds management. They are walking a fine line by trying to "win now" AND "build from the bottom up".

When are they installing the humidor at Great American? I'm in Pittsburgh and I've seen Fogg a lot, including last year. He will not do well at Great American. He will hinder the experience building necessary to grow the young pitchers.

For the record, much the same can be said for Blanton and giving up on any of Bailey, Volquez, Maloney, Ceuto, Votto, or Bruce is insane and could not possibly be driven by Krivsky, only by interference from Mr. C.

at 9:50 PM Anonymous Nathan said...

I gotta agree with red faced earlier, I would have loved the signing if it was a minor league deal, who are they going to drop from the 40 man roster for him??

at 9:57 PM Blogger Rob Dicken said...

In a full season, Fogg has not had better than a 4.36 ERA. That was in Pittsburgh, too.

He's had around a 5.00 ERA in Colorado, what makes Krivsky think he is going to be any better in GABP?

Hell, we should of just signed Milton again for a minor league contract. Would it be any worse? I honestly don't think it would.

Now, if we use Fogg out of the pen, then that may be a different story...I just have a hard time thinking he is going to grab a rotation spot over the likes of Homer, Cueto, Volquez, Maloney, Affeldt, or Belisle.

If the Reds sign Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson, I smell a trade coming on with Ryan Freel. I am thinking a possible Ryan Freel/Homer Bailey/Prospect trade to the A's for Blanton may be in the works...hmmmm.

at 9:59 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

Josh Fogg

60-60 career 4.90 era

at 10:07 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bad advice from agent award goes to Fogg's agent. Fogg's agent cost him $4 million because he was being greedy and holding out for a multi year deal and turning down the 1yr. $5 million from the Rockies.

at 10:32 PM Blogger docproc said...

If it happens, I hate this signing. Any of our youngsters could put up Fogg numbers (5.00 ERA) and get big-league experience in the process.

This is stupid.

at 10:50 PM Anonymous unblogger said...

The question is would you rather have Fogg as your #5 starter and keep the young guns in AAA until they are ready, or do you want to have your young guns learning on the battlefield?
Fogg is about as good as an average #5 starter (which is not very good), so $1 for him his a good deal. Worst case, he flops, and is released early in the year.

at 11:03 PM Blogger Chris at Redleg Nation said...

"...went 10-9 last year." (Josh Fogg, spring 2008)

"...went 14-6 last year" (Eric Milton, spring 2005)

"...went 15-10 last year" (Jimmy Haynes, spring 2002)

"...went 11-6 last year" (Paul Wilson, spring 2005)

"...went 8-4 last year" (Lance Davis, spring 2002)

More relevant than last year's W-L record Fogg has never had an ERA above the league average, in six full seasons. He walks too many guys, gives up too many HR, and doesn't strike out enough batters. He got a lot of help from a great Denver defense, which the Reds ain't got.

All that said, he's far from useless at 1 year/$1M in the abstract. What I don't get is how he's useful to a team that's supposedly loaded with young pitching and two similar guys in Belisle and Affeldt.

at 11:23 PM Blogger 24/7 said...

this IS a bullpen signing, right?

at 11:24 PM Blogger NC Reds Fan said...

What is with everyone wanting Blanton. Hes no better than the pitchers we have and there is no way that i would ever trade Homer Bailey for Blanton. Blanton is only good because he pitches in Oakland (5.11 road era). If managment is smart at all the will not trade Homer. Mark my word, Fed 2oth 11:15 pm, Homer will be the #2 on this team by the end of the year. On the Fogg deal, I don't think we would can gain anything from this. We have 3 or 4 pitchers that are better then he is and there is only 3 spots left. I would only do this if it was a minor league deal. I'd rather let the kids play. This team will be much better if we just let the kids play.

at 12:01 AM Blogger charlie said...

I really don't understand why people seem so upset by this. It's only a million bucks. For a million dollars he can start in the rotation, keep a spot warm for one of the young guys (who likely couldn't handle a whole season at their ages anyway), and move to the pen in June or July. Heck, for a million dollars you don't even need to keep him on the roster--they won't force him to stick in the rotation (a la Milton) for a measly $1 million.

If he works out, great. If not, so what?

at 12:07 AM Blogger maus said...

I wonder if maangement saw something in these early days of spring training that made them do this deal -- 2 or 3 of the young guns not throwing as well as expected (i.e. not ready) or maybe Bray's shoulder (Affeldt to the bullpen).

In any case, if they got him for $1M that's a good deal. He'll be well motivated to work hard and do well -- not wanting to go through the same embarrassment
next winter as he did this winter. It's possible that the Reds pit Fogg vs Belisle in the spring -- loser gets to be the long man (who else do we have as a long man?).

You can NEVER have too much CHEAP pitching. This is a no lose -- if he stinks, he becomes an easy cut (not much lost), if he does even average and the young guns are ready to pitch -- he's an easy trade with that salary -- maybe we pull another Lohse for Maloney.

The real issue could be the pending roster move. Please -- no Blanton.

at 12:08 AM Blogger Gweedoh said...

if none of the young studs can pitch better than a typical Josh Fogg year (~4.80 ERA, ~1.40 WHIP), then I'm going to be shedding many tears this year

at 1:00 AM Blogger tom dunne said...

People are reading way too much into this. Josh Fogg wasn't signed to win the World Series; the 2008 Reds aren't doing that anyway. Fogg's an insurance policy while the new kids are brought along.

Fans who think that we should just plug the kids in there... that's not how it works. Bailey has 45 major league innings, with a 5.76 ERA. Volquez has 80 innings and a 7.20 ERA. That's two young guns who have had their brains beaten in against major league hitters; Cueto and others haven't even been good enough to get called up yet. Throwing those guys in the deep end against Major League hitters just because you have some spots in the rotation isn't a recipe for success. If they aren't ready, they aren't ready. If they are ready, retreads like Josh Fogg aren't going to keep them on the bench.

On a related note, if you want to see Homer Bailey make 35 starts under Dusty Baker, first take a moment to look at Mark Prior's career. Giving some innings to Fogg might be the best thing that ever happens to Bailey.

at 1:34 AM Anonymous NVreds said...

I read we were signing him for $1 mil (some link off mlbtraderumors.com), that makes this deal real good. could end up being a good trading chip later in the yr when one of these young guys "prove" they belong. yes, it takes away from young guys innings in the bigs, but bad experience in the bigs is still bad experience, lets be completely sure they're ready.

at 1:55 AM Blogger Daniel said...

Agree here that this is a no lose signing. Worst case Fogg is insurance so the Reds aren't forced to fit any of the youngsters into the rotation. Let's face it, if Homer pitches like he does last year it'll hurt this team immediately in that they'll lose winnable games based on his inconsistency. Fogg should be less spectacular, but more even keel.

Also, this lets them put Affedlt in the bullpen where he's excelled as a lefty specialist. It's depth and we all know that there will be times over a long season when having an extra arm is necessary.

at 7:12 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

I certainly don't think it's a given that any of the young pitchers, or Belisle/Affeldt for that matter, put up better numbers than Fogg did last year.

Good signing - adding depth/competition for little risk - though I highly doubt he makes any significant impact. Might as well have brought Uncle Milty back, at least he's a lefty.

at 7:14 AM Anonymous Dan said...

I love the move if it's only one year and $1 million.

I view Fogg as "young-pitching insurance." Basically, if Bailey, Volquez, etc. aren't ready in 2008, and if Affeldt doesn't work out as a starter, and if you need someone to eat up those innings, you've got Fogg.

If the other guys pan out, you may not need Fogg much at all.

We haven't LOST any options here. We have only gained a new option.

That's the best thing about this move! Blanton is better than Fogg, sure (though not vastly better), but with Fogg, we still have Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Votto, Frazier, etc.!

at 7:27 AM Anonymous Anonymous said...

froma previous post...

"What exactly did O'Brien do for the Reds in his short term as GM? Krivsky has proven to be a positive move for the team."

how about drafting all the prospects everyone's slobbering over and then getting run out of town so the mongoloids in this city could give krivsky all the credit??

question for all of you sycophants preaching "patience patience", were you saying the same when OB was run out of town?

compare the drafts under OB and Krivsky and get back to me.

at 8:01 AM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

actually we went backwards during Krivskys second year..

krivsky ..may turn out to be an excellent GM..but at this point in time has not "proven anything"

at 8:14 AM Blogger Al in Ohio said...

I tell myself constantly that I won't do it anymore, but then I read some posts on here and I can't help myself.

You people are insane. Red Faced states "In reality, he's no better than Belisle was last year." Except for the fact that he's made more than 25 starts every year for the last six years, and won in double digits in five of those. Others wail about how signing him will impede the experience of the youngsters. How? Do we know what the Reds plan to do with Fogg? Do we know that the Reds have already decided that all of their young pitchers are ready to take the ball every 4th or 5th day at the major league level and perform consistently?

The bottom line is that with Josh Fogg at least the Reds have a baseline to look at to give themselves some sort of idea of what they'll get from him. Neither they, nor any of you, have any idea what the Reds can expect from Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, or Maloney. You know what you HOPE they'll get, or what you THINK or FEEL they can get, but at this point it's a crapshoot. To sign a versatile veteran arm like Fogg, at the terms they got him for, is a GREAT deal for the Reds. This rotation is mediocre at best, abysmal at worst. The more possibilities they can give themselves for the rotation and long-relief, the better off they'll be.

Now, please go back to deluding yourselves that Corey Patterson would be a good signing.

at 8:24 AM Blogger Al in Ohio said...

And, to Grizzlyfox, in response to an earlier post about my calling Reds fans "crazy":

I agree that it's smart for the Reds to sign players to fill holes. Who wouldn't think that? My point was that every time a name gets mentioned on one of the national sports outlets as being "available", Reds fans get themselves into a frenzy if they can remember when that player was good or when he was considered a phenom. Corey Patterson is a classic example.

Patterson is a guy who has never been able to figure out the major league strike zone. He was given up on by the Cubs, and now by the ORIOLES. Think about that. The terrible Baltimore Orioles don't want him anymore! But I get the impression that Reds fans can remember when he was coming up with the Cubs and was mentioned as a future star, so they're hot for the Reds to sign him and stick him in CF. Sure he's fast. But the number of bad ABs that he would have with RISP would have people calling for his scalp by June. I just want people to actually pay attention to a player's performance, rather than just his recognizable name.

at 8:32 AM Anonymous Kyredsfan said...

Lets please put any more longing for Joe Banton to rest now, please!!!! People are complaining about Fogg's ERA around 5 and then ignoring Blanton's worse ERA when on the road. Cueto could surely benefit from AAA time, and Belisle has got to improve over last year to have a spot. We didn't see the real Homer Bailey mid-summer, he will still be a stud. The committment started under O'Brien to develop the farm system and win from within is starting to pay off, lets not blow it.

at 8:39 AM Blogger Laura said...

Forget the news - what I'm shocked about is that Krivsky admitted they were in negotiations with Fogg!!!

at 9:34 AM Blogger tom dunne said...

I don't think the Reds should acquire him, but too big a deal is being made of Blanton's 2007 road ERA. We're talking 19 starts, about half a season. His career road ERA is 4.66, while Fogg's career on the road is 4.58. In terms just of earned runs on the road, they're virtually identical.

Blanton's road ERA is in part just bad luck - pitching in Oakland doesn't magically knock a run and a half off everyone's ERA.

at 9:35 AM Anonymous redsfanwoody said...

I'll admit I wasn't the Biggest Dan O'Brien fan. But I give 100% credit in starting the turnaround on the farm system.

He should be head of a scouting department,not a G.M. That stems from some of the silly rules he implemented during his tenure. Remember the lower level hitters had to take a strike before they thought about swinging?

at 10:34 AM Blogger Tampa Red said...

Low risk move to add depth to the rotation. Any thing less would by Krivsky would be malpractice.

at 11:18 AM Blogger Brendan said...

Great move! Cheap insurance option and he has better numbers than Belisle at GABP. Keep piling up options for the rotation and make the young guys earn their spot instead of having it handed to them!

at 2:40 PM Blogger Hugh D. Pohl said...

Indulge me with comments on a few different issues:
Fogg is a great signing at this price. Totally agree with Al in Ohio for perhaps the first time!

Give O'Brien credit for drafting Homer and Bruce and for starting the resurrection of the farm system, otherwise he was poor. I think Krivsky, whatever you think of his PR skills or lack thereof has done a good and sometimes great job assembling the team. The TRADE was the only tarnish on his record and he has lucked out there in that Kearns and Lopez have not done so well in DC.

Going back to last thread, have to agree with my buddy Reaganspad, I am a Dunn fan. They should lock him up to a 3 to 5 year deal if possible. Despite his fielding and strikeout issues his power and OBP make him an offensive force. The RISP issue is somewhat bogus or at least overblown. He has hit for about the same career average with RISP as his regular average. RISP is not that good a statistic for many reasons that I don't have time to get into here.

at 4:38 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

thanks Hugh, Fogg is better than last year's 5th starter, the infamous Milton/Ramirez/Dumatrait/Saarloos who were 3-16 with a 8 Plus ERA in 28 starts.

Fogg can beat that while our kids, drafted by O'Brien or not can grow up and win jobs based on their performance

at 4:48 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

fogg wont even make this team as a starter..Lifetime 60-60 record and ERA approaching 5.00

by the way regans..I stated when a managerial change is made in midseason ..quite often you get a bump..I never said that translated to the following year.

Cordero is a 9th inning guy..u dont pitch him anywhere else..our bullpen still stinks

at 5:21 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

Jack, Fogg will do much better in 28 starts than our 07 fifth starter. He may have a 4.9 ERA, but that will win 15 of those starts. Belisle won 8 with 5.32.

Reds were a 500 team in 06 Jack... you are so forgetful.

at 6:00 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...

reagans..all of your posts tell us the team and or players will do better..I guess thats easy to do..

our record indicates that your enthusiasm is not warranted..nor valid

josh fogg has never won 15 games in his career

the reds were .500 in 06 so what

at 6:20 PM Blogger reaganspad said...

Jack, all your posts say that the Reds will be lucky to be a 500 team. In 06 and half of 07, the Reds are a 500 team. They were sub 500 1/2 of 07.

I see a 500 team that underperformed and got the manager fired. You see a team that overperformed in 06 and the 2nd half of 07.

You are the dark side. If the Reds are at 500 in 08, they AGAIN (like April-June 07) will be underperforming

at 6:36 PM Anonymous Jack in Blue Ash said...


your analysis of two very separate and distinct seasons makes absolutely no sense

dude u can try to manipulate stats, combine seasons, etc..anything you want to obsfucate one fact...the team has stunk for 7 years

I am not in any side. I have a team that went 72-90 last year and I will temper my enthusiasm until I see different

again reagan, you are trying to defend and manipulate mediocrity..what is is

at 7:36 PM Anonymous justcorbly said...

This is a good deal. The Reds have two major league starters and a bunch of guys who want to be major league starter. One of their two starters lost twice as many games as he won last year.

Because owners are stupid and greedy, and players are smarter and greedy, getting even a mediocre starter this offseason means signing over the Triple AAA franchise. Getting a run-of-the-mill starter/reliever like Fogg for a $1 million and no long-term deal is a slick move.

Be real: While one or two of the younger guys may blossom and have great years, odds are it will be a bumpy road. The Reds need someone to start every third game while the kids are getting things sorted out.

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