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Reds Insider
From news of the day to news of the weird, John Fay provides a glimpse of what it’s like to cover the Cincinnati Reds

John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Thursday, April 17, 2008

Reds 9, Cubs 2

The Reds beat the Cubs 9-2 this afternoon.

The Reds got something in the fourth inning that's been all too rare for them this season -- a three-run double. I can't remember another one by a Red this year. Certainly not on this road trip. Adam Dunn walked. Jeff Keppinger followed with his second hit. Edwin Encarnacion walked. Joey Votto then smoked one into the right-center gap, clearing the bases.

Votto wrapped up the Star of the Game race with a two-run homer in the sixth. He swings nice and easy but the ball jumps off his bat.

Ken Griffey Jr. hit home run No. 596 -- a three-run shot in the seventh -- to make it 8-2.

Edinson Volquez went five innings, allowing one run on four hits. He walked four and struck out seven. That pushed his pitch count to 112 in the innings. He's 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA.

He had his good stuff. His first pitch was 96. 16 pitches, 12 strikes in the first. He got Derrek Lee with a 78 mph change-up on a full count.

He struggled a bit with control after that. He walked pitcher Ted Lilly with the bases loaded in the second.

His pitch count reached 94 after 4. But he worked a 1-2-3 fifth, striking out Aramis Ramirez with a 95 mph fastball on the last pitch.


100 Comments:

at 3:02 PM Blogger Rob said...

Ed's a little wild. Notice how the fans at wrigley were on their feet while the Cubs were batting with men on base in the 2nd? Reds fans used to do that when there was emotion at the ballpark. Now the mood is sterile, in anticipation of the evening's next activity. We fans need to bring back some electricity to the park.

 
at 3:04 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

The Homeplate Ump must be a Cubs fan.Volquez got robbed on the Lilly AB.

Down 1-0,Hope the bats warm up.EE is getting worse, everytime I see him AB.Dusty needs to tell him to just take the 1st pitch.He looks like he might be benched here soon,I hope.

 
at 3:22 PM OpenID willtthrill said...

The contrast between the Reds and Cubs hitters today is striking. The Reds are just up there hacking, and Lilly has barely had to throw any pitches. The Cubs, meanwhile, are making Volquez work. His stuff is good, and other than to Lilly his command hasn't been terrible, but the Cubs hitters are just making him work harder to get them out and thus giving themselves more chances to do something offensively. It would be nice if at least somebody on the Cincy side could pick up on that.

 
at 3:23 PM Blogger robdicken said...

EE went 2 for 4 yesterday. They weren't screamers, but they were hits.

The constant popping up needs to stop though.

 
at 3:26 PM Blogger jeff said...

I love the child-like enthusiasm of all the Reds fans who create their own fantasy Reds lineup. It's like when I used to draw my ultimate super hero or design the coolest flying car ever.

Everyone has their opinion on this lineup.

 
at 3:31 PM OpenID r2theoman said...

A .273obp does not equate to "a ton" (Patterson)

 
at 3:34 PM Blogger Rob said...

nice hit by Votto. He needs to play everyday, and I think he will now.

 
at 3:41 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

Wow, the 1st post on this thread is longer than a cheap novel.

lets keep it simple.

 
at 3:49 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

Rob,

EE just doesn't look good.2 hits out of 4 AB's in a massacre doesn't cut it.Pitchers have more lee-way to throw more strikes in blow outs, making pitching mistakes a lot easier to handle.

Just Like Dunn hammering the ball when it matters least.Dunn has his best games when the red's are blown out or when it matters least,giving him easier pitchers to hit.When it matters the most, where is Dunn.Striking out!!!

This team is unraveling & it's weakness are glaring for everyone to see.

 
at 3:56 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

Nice Catch by Votto too.He should be the staring 1st baseman.he hits LH pitching.

That should be enough right there,but with this management team.He'll probably get demoted to AA.

 
at 4:13 PM Blogger Ron said...

Redlegs!!!

Good thing Dusty is our manager and Kriv is our GM and not myself or any one else who regularly posts on a blog!!!

Redlegs!!!

Oh, JFAY..can you pass this along to Dusty....

"Redlegs!!!"

Thanks man.

 
at 4:13 PM Blogger Rob said...

can Votto rake or what?

 
at 4:17 PM OpenID r2theoman said...

I do not agree with Volquez going out to pitch the 6th with a pitch count of 112.

 
at 4:18 PM Blogger omnired said...

Any doubt left about who should be playing first base every day, even against lefties?

Edwin has a 7 game hit streak now, pushing his avg up from 083 to 224 (mid game) over the past week.

 
at 4:18 PM Blogger Josh Hamilton said...

EE has a 7 game hitting streak. Is he the only people you guys can blame?

I thought Jerry Narron had left.

 
at 4:23 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Volquez did not come out for the sixth. Burton did.

Here's an interesting myth-busting stat on Dunn someone posted on another thread:

It's amazing how lazy some fans are when it comes to the stats.

Adam Dunn now has 240 career HR's... 190 of those HR have come within a save situation for either team (-3 to+3 range on the scoreboard). That is 79% of his career HR total!! Not only is Dunn hitting meaningful HR's, he's doing it 4 out of every 5 times!! Talk about a horrible myth about a player. Lazy fans.. awful!

 
at 4:25 PM OpenID r2theoman said...

I guess he didn't put him out there. I assumed he was given he let him bat. Or maybe he didn't. I'm going by MLB Gameday.

 
at 4:25 PM Blogger Josh Hamilton said...

Come on Fay....don't actually post stats.

People can't handle the truth.

 
at 4:35 PM Blogger davetest said...

'Lazy fans'???? You are too funny....

Keep up the good work John. The info you post helps a lot.

 
at 4:40 PM Blogger omnired said...

To all the Dunn & Griffey haters, I need to know for future reference...was Griffey's 3-run homerun in today's game meaningless?

John Fay, thanks for your fact checking on Dunn's homeruns! I do not understand where all the false myths about Adam Dunn come from.

 
at 4:40 PM Blogger Joe said...

Jr. with #596.

I am the last person to give Dusty advice, but everyday, Votto has to be at first base. Everyday!

I think they are starting to wake up at the plate. Not just because of what they have done today, but because EE, Votto and Dunn have each started to hit little by little over the past three days. EE with back to back doubles...he is coming around.

 
at 4:42 PM Blogger Ron said...

In appreciation of dominating a lefty, disproving bs about Dunn, and our WHOLE LINEUP above the Mendoza line (with Freel's bunt), I am donating a Redleg's hat to an area clothing drive in Duenos Aires...Redlegs repin' in Sudamerica!!!

Redlegs!!!

 
at 4:47 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

Jeff said - "I love the child-like enthusiasm of all the Reds fans who create their own fantasy Reds lineup. It's like when I used to draw my ultimate super hero or design the coolest flying car ever."


And I love the neurotic innuendos and the outrageous assumptions made by fellow Reds fans who offer nothing more than to shoot another fan down.

By the way, this isnt a "fantasy lineup", as you presumed.

This is a statistical analysis broken down for each individiual players, versus both sides of the ball, over the last 3 years.

Do some research next time before you decide to insert your foot into your mouth.

Typical "lazy" Reds fan, as John just posted...

 
at 4:47 PM Blogger John Fay said...

"Lazy fan" comment was from the poster, not me.

"You can't handle the truth" reference made me think of Lance McAlister intro. It's the finest in radio for my money.

 
at 4:49 PM Blogger John Fay said...

And Volquez did bat for himself in the sixth. He looks pretty good at the plate. But that was curious.

 
at 4:49 PM Blogger Joe said...

John Fay: While your passing things on to Dusty, could you pass this along too.

Tell him most of us are just Reds fans and don't know or pretend to know a great deal about people we've never met or a sport we haven't played since we were kids. It is always nice to win but the majority of us, who love baseball regardless of the score or won-loss record, will support the Reds, Krivsky and himself regardless.

reddlegg: Love your line, "longer than a cheap novel". Wish I has said that.

 
at 4:51 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

stats are wonderfully intriguing

when you have a losing team you can always get some type of satisfaction by critiquing individual players..its fun... yet they mean nothing if the team is put together wrong and not winning

what is the win loss record of this team for the past 7 years? Frankly thats the only stat that matters

Yeah Griffeys homerun was essentially meaningless.

It would have been nice to see him hit the ball outta the infield with men on base over the course of the past 5 games

 
at 4:53 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

r2theoman said - "A .273obp does not equate to "a ton" (Patterson)"


You're right, and after I posted the article, I would've liked to have described it differently.

Such as CPatt gets on base enough and Dunn gets on base a "ton". Better?


But anyways, for the record, I only have Patterson playing versus lefties, therefor, his season obp so far against rhp's, is .298.

By the way, we all know Dusty has a thing for CPatt and therefor, no matter what his OBP is, he is going to play versus righties, in the leadoff position.

Unless he falls below the Mendoza line, I dont see that changing.

 
at 4:54 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

redlegginColorado said - "Wow, the 1st post on this thread is longer than a cheap novel.

lets keep it simple."



Further proof of the "lazy fan" that is currently being used to describe Reds fans.

Go figure.

 
at 4:57 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

_"Lazy fan" comment was from the poster, not me._


Yeah, I know, Mo said it on 1530.

But it still holds true, doesnt it?

 
at 5:00 PM Blogger davetest said...

I think Baker had EV bat for himself in the sixth because there were 2 outs and he didnt want to waste a pinch hitter just yet. I think there would have been a pinch hitter if EV led off the sixth.

 
at 5:05 PM Blogger Ron said...

Hey John...who ended the game at SS last night? I was confused by Yahoo's gamecast after there was a pinch hitter for Castro.

Thanks.

Redlegs!!!

 
at 5:06 PM Blogger IndyCat said...

Two outs, nobody on. If he makes an out, so what? You have the top of the order leading off in the 7th. That's my take on Volquez hitting in the 6th.

 
at 5:12 PM Blogger John Fay said...

The cheap novel is gone. Don't write that long, folks.

Griffey's meaningless home run came after the Cubs brought the tying run to the plate with one out in the sixth inning at Wrigley Field.

Castro played short in the ninth. The announced it wrong in the press box, thus the confuse.

 
at 5:14 PM Blogger Bengal43 said...

John....Was Stanton ever offically released? Wasn't he DFA'ed?

 
at 5:16 PM Blogger omnired said...

But to say that the team's win-loss record over the past 7 seasons is the fault of two individual players is, to put it nicely, wrong.

 
at 5:17 PM Blogger Geoff said...

uh oh, surely coffey won't give up 7 runs?!? I hope.....

 
at 5:26 PM Blogger jdeezman said...

Hey Bengal43... I as hoping they just took Stanton out back and put him out of OUR misery.

 
at 5:29 PM Blogger bluegrass said...

Playing Votto daily is an answer. EE feilding has to be real concern.

 
at 5:38 PM Blogger Ron said...

thanks John...but i THOUGHT he was pulled for Freel or someone as a pinch hitter, is that what was announced wrong? It showed up as what I thought was an illegal double switch. Hence, I thought maybe Phillips moved to SS....but that really doesn't seem like a Dusty move, especially in regards to the type of blowout game that it was.

Redlegs!!!

 
at 5:44 PM Blogger robdicken said...

Stats don't mean anything John...don't you remember? You go to the games...you know who's good! Stats are meaningless because you go to games! And those experts...they don't go to games. They're nerds....so they don't know anything! /sarcasm

Reds just won a game, and Jack is talking about Griffey hitting meaningless homeruns and the Reds not working because they're losing. Negativity just oozes from this dude!

I just saw a win...a good one at that. One in which Griffey didn't hit a "meaningless" homerun. Read John's post about that, Jack.

I'm glad you know more than stats, situations, and experts do. God of baseball cometh!! LOL

 
at 5:44 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

The infamous 27th out.EE's fielding look's really bad.How many times does it take to get that 3rd out

This was a good win,hope to see more of what I say today tomorrow.

The Lazy fan comment was funny.It's one thing to Get Paid to follow stats,but it's another to seriously follow them as a fan.I just simply do not have the time to look up stats,that's why I read the paper or watch the news.But I do watch the games & see what I seeing day in & day out.Stats only tell 1/2 the story.

Something I agree with Mr.Blueash is, there is only one stat that matters.WIns & losses

 
at 5:46 PM Blogger Joe said...

omnifan: You won't hear me bashing Dunn, I like the guy and his numbers. I've never looked at the stats, but I would bet there aren't more than 8-10 players with combined HR, Runs, RBI and OBP numbers that are better than his over the past 5 years.

Where I come from all HR, RBIs, Runs and Hits are accepted. (unless hit with corked bat or while juiced)

 
at 5:50 PM Blogger Cincy fans hate to much said...

For those still pining for Josh Hamilton:


Remember we ran Volquez out there instead of Belisle, or Milton, or insert some other name of a has been or never was pitcher today.

Sure Hamilton would be nice on this team, but pitching is what the Reds lacked, and pitching is what the Reds needed more than any other commodity, and guess what teams don't give up pitchers like Volquez without getting something of value in return.

So if you trade a scrub, you get a scrub back, so to get Volquez, they traded a like player. Personally I have never once thought twice about the trade, I thought it was good at the time and NOTHING I have seen so far out of Volquez makes me think twice about it now. Sure the offense struggling, but would you rather a struggling offense have to score 1, 2 or 3 runs to win a game or say 6 or more runs to win a game.

 
at 5:54 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

How can Dusty even reward Coffey with pitching in todays game?

Yea, I'm sure people will knock me down saying I have no clue about what I'm saying,I probably get verbally attacked, My comments will be pasted & commented on negativly,I'm sure the expert's will say; save your arms for a closer game,make him look good for potential suitors, or even to straighten him out & Build his confidence.

I guess the only thing I really wanna Know,Is why is he in reds uni?

 
at 6:18 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Now can we get rid of Hatteberg and add a useful RH bat to the bench. Someone like Jorge Cantu, but not him because he would be making $6 mil if he were here.
St CSA

 
at 6:20 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

My guess is that The Amazing Krivsky will have David Ross back here tomorrow and we will be stuck with 3 catchers and none of them worth a darn (as George Grande would say).
St CSA

 
at 6:21 PM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

most in Texas felt that they got Hamilton for nothing..Its way too early to draw any results

John I could care less about either Griffey or Dunn hitting home runs. Unlike yourself, most of us have to pay for our tickets and we get tired of spending our hard earned money on the losing. As you would too if you had to pay for your seats

I dont care if Griffey or Dunn ever hit another home run as long as the team wins. And most fans at the ballpark feel the same way

Have you forgotten the mass exodus from the park after the 7th inning in most of the games last year?

If you had a wife and two kids and spent over 125 bucks everytime you went to GABP, you would get tired of the losing

But anyway..it was a nice win and we are looking forward to seeing the team this weekend

 
at 6:56 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

Here's a useful stat:
6 wins, 9 losses,5th place & 5 games out of 1st,but only 3 out of .500.

Here's another:
Volquez 2-0,shaping up to the be the ace of the squad.As of now.

Heres a stat from last season:
Phillies were 4-11 this time last season & look were the ended up.The playoffs,with a liitle help by the mets.

Not to bad for a "Lazy fan" uh??? See even lazy fans can talk stats too.(LOLOL)

 
at 6:57 PM Blogger bluegrass said...

Management had to expect to have Ganzales and Ross as right handers that gave acceptable balance. EE has his upsides with hitting, but his fielding just isn't acceptable for this level with plenty of other folks that will feel good playing his position.

 
at 7:04 PM Blogger cReds1 said...

John, here is some FACTS for you on Dunn that is more important than your stats...

He hits an HR 7 percent of the time with runners on base, 6 percent of the time with RISP and 5 percent of the time with RISP and 2 outs and in the mean time, He Ks 33 percent of the time with runners on base, 34 percent of the time with RISP and 34 percent of the time with RISP and 2 outs.

He is not a clutch hitter no matter how you try and make him look. There are many other things that Dunn is not good at that will never show up on a stat sheet.

 
at 7:04 PM Blogger cReds1 said...

John, here is some FACTS for you on Dunn that is more important than your stats...

He hits an HR 7 percent of the time with runners on base, 6 percent of the time with RISP and 5 percent of the time with RISP and 2 outs and in the mean time, He Ks 33 percent of the time with runners on base, 34 percent of the time with RISP and 34 percent of the time with RISP and 2 outs.

He is not a clutch hitter no matter how you try and make him look. There are many other things that Dunn is not good at that will never show up on a stat sheet.

 
at 7:05 PM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

I need to correct myself

7-9 & only 2 games out from .500

I figure I'd better do it before,I get sandblasted for my incorrect stats.

 
at 7:07 PM Blogger Phill said...

125 bucks on a single game? Quit buying the overpriced booze. You know you're allowed to take in things like soda(in bottles only) and chips(unopened) or other snacks. Unless of course the 125 includes ticket price in there that seems like way too much to be spending at a game.

 
at 7:12 PM Blogger Another losing season said...

What constitutes a "good" win? Is there such a thing as a bad win? Just asking.

 
at 7:50 PM Blogger pootyhead said...

1). You don't have to spend your money at the ballgame. It's your choice and if you spend it,quit whining about it.

2). If you spend $125 thats on you. You can bring your own snacks in. It's pretty simple.

3) If you detest losing,stop going.

4) Stats are a big part of baseball,how else do teams make jundements on players? Duh.

 
at 8:02 PM Blogger Jeff said...

Jack - The number of games you attend a year has absolutely nothing to do with the validity of your opinion. There are a lot of folks that go to the ballpark and hang out at places in the park like Frontgate only because it is the cool thing to do. They may want the Reds to win but it doesn’t mean they know a great deal about baseball strategy and tactics. Why don’t you quit beating that dead horse?

BTW – Like them or not, if Griffey and Dunn aren’t hitting home runs, they likely are not driving in a lot of runs. If they are driving in runs, the Reds will be losing a lot of games they might have otherwise won.

 
at 8:12 PM Blogger sabr_blogger said...

Joey Votto for president!

(Oh yeah, and he should start every day at 1B, too.)

 
at 8:30 PM Blogger Donkey Dizzle 4's said...

man, this whole blog is bitter. lighten up, have some fun. this is baseball.

 
at 8:35 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

John Fay said - "The cheap novel is gone."


Cheap novel?

It was a statitistical analysis of our players and how they've faired against left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching.

Obviously you dont venture down that road too often and just make up your analysis.

If that was a "cheap novel", then I guess your writing skills are complete and utter BS since you base everything off nothing more than your own opinion.

No wonder no one in Cincinnati reads your nonsense.

 
at 8:36 PM Blogger ST fan said...

Just my guess, but likely Hatteberg, Hooper, and Coffee are gone. Bailey, Hairxxx, and Ross added.

Perhaps eventually the three infielders will be Kepp, AGon, and Phillips....can only guess where Dusty will play them. I like AGon at 3rd, Phil at SS, and Kepp at 2nd.....but that puts all three at new positions and that ain't so hot. Bye-bye EE.

 
at 8:38 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

John Fay said - "The cheap novel is gone."


Cheap novel?

It was a statitistical analysis of our players and how they've faired against left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching, over the past 3 years.

Obviously you dont venture down the road of critical thinking too often and would rather just make up your own assumptions.

If that was a "cheap novel", then I guess your writing skills are complete and utter BS since you base everything off nothing more than your own opinion.

No wonder no one in Cincinnati reads your non-sense and gives you zero respect as a journalist.

 
at 8:44 PM Blogger Emilio said...

Ah, the sniping continues.

Apart from the much-needed victory, the three best things I took from watching the game this afternoon were (in no particular order) Votto's bat continuing to heat up (He does indeed have a sweet, smooth, and easy swing, John), Encarnacion making solid contact with greater frequency (like him or not, we are going to need him producing for the Reds to stay competetive...over the past two years he has been one of the team's best clutch hitter), and Volquez' performance. The home plate umpire had a very inconsistent strike zone today that, for the most part he kept tighter than a fly's...well...you know. That said, even when Volquez missed, he missed low not up. That is invaluable to any pitcher who faces having to pitch half his games at the Great American Launching Pad.

Have faith people! Better times are slowly but surely coming!

 
at 8:45 PM Blogger deathcabforkanye said...

Do you think there is anything to make of Jay Bruce not starting tonight in Louisville?

 
at 8:53 PM Blogger Mr. Doom and Gloom said...

even after a win, the bitterness continues...lets look on the bright for a second...it seems that the vast majority of bloggers agreed on 2 things lineup wise - patterson should not be hitting leadoff, and votto should be starting everyday at 1B - both of which happened today, and lo and behold, a strong offensive showing and a redlegs victory..big pat on the back for all of us, let's hope the lineup trend continues tomorrow.

 
at 8:53 PM Blogger Lance said...

Adam Dunn can't help the fact that teams won't pitch to him when it counts. Dunn has 17 walks in 15 games! The next closest? Pujoles, Beltran and Howard with 13.

My opinion is that Dunn will see more pitches as the guys around him start to hit. Lately, however, you might as well walk the Donkey and take your chances.

Bring on the Brewmasters!

 
at 8:58 PM Blogger bsu1 said...

As to Volquez the ace of the staff...not so fast. He has to get his pitch count down. As of now he is an excellent pitcher but good for 5-6 innings. Usually at 5 he is at the 100 pitch count and we have to go to the bullpen. I think he is going to be a real gem for us but he has to get better control.

 
at 9:02 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

I wish they'd bring back Marc Lancaster...atleast he had half a brain and knew how to use it.

Fay's a complete moron that no respects in Cincinnati.

 
at 9:53 PM Blogger LittleRedMachine said...

so EE is 5 for his last 12 and Reds 'fans' keep bashing him. Incredible.

 
at 9:54 PM Blogger LittleRedMachine said...

so EE is 5 for his last 12 and Reds 'fans' keep bashing him. Incredible.

 
at 10:06 PM Blogger John Fay said...

Just-in: If you want to write that much, start a blog and put a link to it. I asked that posts be kept to a screen full. That was about 20. Someone is reading my weak stuff. The blog got 130,000 pages views last week. Cincinnati.com and I thank you.

 
at 10:23 PM Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

John Fay said - "The blog got 130,000 page views last week."


I bet it did, since The Enquirer has monopolized the Tri-State area and finally pushed The Post out of contention.

I also bet the increase hasnt been as much as you thought it would be, since the Post folded.

jmo.

 
at 10:27 PM Blogger JF said...

Why can't we all just root like heck for Josh Hamilton (too)? I'm a Rangers fan now that he's down there.

And you have to love Volquez, and today's play for what it will mean SOON for the Reds (once they get Bruce up here and cut more of the incompetent dead wood from the team). Nice way to stop a losing streak. Now let's win 5 in a row, stay above .500 all year, and I'll completely shut up here.

Until then I will continue to be down on Dusty Zomby.

Bako obviously wants to prove everyone wrong (everyone who says we have a catching problem) and it's great to see aggressive base running. If we didn't have a Zomby running the show, everyone would be far more aggressive. Obviously Bako was channeling Sabo (and Freel and Rose) and that's going to endear him to every Reds fan. Nice job!

It's almost time to start buying tickets for #600. If I ever catch a home run ball at GABP, I'll go find someone wearing a Cubs hat, and toss him onto the field instead of the ball, even if we're not playing Chicago.

New traditions are just begging to be inaugurated, you know.

 
at 10:32 PM Blogger Red Faced said...

I was going to post this earlier but I was just too lazy.

Edi V didn't have his best control today but I like how he worked out of jams and got the big strike out when the team needed it (ok, except for the walk to Lilly -which was a bad call by the way). We've seen both Volquez and Harang get wins without their best stuff which is a good sign for this pitching staff. We can't really complain much about the pitching we've received so far (ok, I'll let you complain about Fogg and Decaf).

Votto needs to play every day.

EE - starting to come back around

Dunn - has anyone in the history of MLB ever had such a discrepency in their BA (.182) and their OBP (.413)? That's a mind-numbing .231 pts higher. I don't even know what to make about it. I wish Patterson's OBP was half that difference.

 
at 10:34 PM Blogger JF said...

Jay Bruce is injured, isn't he? A jammed shoulder? He should be healthy and starting for the Reds next week. Should, but of course we have to play Zomby's favorite in Center and leading off. What a waste. Longoria is working out just fine for TB so far. Next!

 
at 10:39 PM Blogger The Dunce Cap Marvel said...

What's the deal with people bashing John Fay? The guy's providing a service to us fans who want to trade opinions on the team and games. Where the heck would everybody go if this blog folded up tomorrow? I for one would be very bored at work. If you want to critique the team, manager, play, etc. go for it. I've got more than enough problems with this team myself. But don't be negative just for the sake of it. If you're just in Cincinnati and don't enjoy the baseball team then maybe you should just-get-out!

 
at 10:44 PM Blogger Redsfansince72 said...

John, I would love to see Dusty keep the same similar lineup. instead of Phillips 4th, bat him 2nd.. then Jr, Dunn, Keppy, Votto, then Edwin!!

whats your thoughts??

 
at 10:48 PM Blogger omnired said...

cReds1 @7:40pm -
When you look at numbers with runners on, you should compare to numbers with bases empty. The numbers you cited as important weren't that different for Dunn in 2007:
K-percent
with runners on 27% (81K/301PA)
RISP 23% (43/186)
bases empty 25% (84/331)

HR rate
with runners on 7% (21HR/301PA)
RISP (not sure why it matters if RISP when he hits a HR, but OK) 4% (7/186)
bases empty 6% (19/331)

I'm not seeing anything different in his numbers with runners on vs. with bases empty.

 
at 10:52 PM Blogger omnired said...

BTW, Dunn hit .375 with the bases loaded last year, including a grand slam. But I suppose all those hits were "meaningless" because he did it in a losing season for the Reds.

 
at 11:01 PM Blogger Richie Rich said...

Time to address the foolish comments of the day.

It's one thing to Get Paid to follow stats,but it's another to seriously follow them as a fan.I just simply do not have the time to look up stats,that's why I read the paper or watch the news.

Nobody is saying you have to study stats, just don't make up untrue facts because you were too lazy to do so.

Now can we get rid of Hatteberg and add a useful RH bat to the bench. Someone like Jorge Cantu, but not him because he would be making $6 mil if he were here.

...and not him because he stinks.

If you had a wife and two kids and spent over 125 bucks everytime you went to GABP, you would get tired of the losing

Cut down on the wife's cosmos, pack your own sandwiches and juicy juice, and stick to one beer. Total cost, 55 bucks. Get a financial advisor, too.

He is not a clutch hitter no matter how you try and make him look. There are many other things that Dunn is not good at that will never show up on a stat sheet.

Last I checked, runs driven in "in the clutch" and runs driven in in other situations all count the same in the final score. Has anyone driven in more runs than Dunn on this team in the past 5 years? No? Then be quiet.

 
at 11:05 PM Blogger omnired said...

Another exercise for you. In 2007, what was Dunn's RBI opportunities. (RBI - HR)/(# baserunners on during a plate appearance). Walks hurt you in this calculation because you get nothing in the numerator (except for bases loaded walks) and 1 in the denominator.

(106 - 40)/427 = 15.5%

Griffey = 63/413 = 15.3%

Phillips = 64/461 = 13.9%

So, Phillips had 34 more opportunities.

Looking outside the team, and I've just looked up one guy, Ryan Howard = 89/501 = 17.8%. Yes a higher rate, but also 74 more runners on base in front of him. That difference alone (501 istead of 427) costs Dunn about 11 RBIs.

 
at 11:11 PM Blogger Dave said...

Just-in, 1) sober up & 2) THEN blog.

 
at 11:16 PM Blogger NVreds said...

This blog is hilarious.

On a lighter note: I just watched dusty baker in a classic game (WS dodgers vs yankees with martin/steinbrenner/jackson) so far he has a good running catch and 2 singles. its on mlb.com's baseballchannel.tv, very enjoyable.

so far Ive seen john fay busted on for ticket prices and deleting a post that was obviously way too long. Neither of which did he deserve the cheap shots he got. I wish i got to read the post though, i bet it was at least mildly interesting.

stats need to be looked at very critically, not ignored or completely relied upon, both sides are right, its tiring listening to that arguement. wins/losses matter the most, but the cubs won 96 games one yr, then got to the playoffs the next, so again just like any stat, there are times a teams history doesnt matter.

You all realize we're ~15 games into the season? guys that are hot will cool off, guys who are cold will heat up (same goes for teams). we have no idea how this team will play in a month. we're 7-9, thats within .500, which will keep us in striking distance. relax a little and enjoy the season, we're baseball fans we know that the game is an up and down game.

Votto will be starting at 1st base a lot more now, there was nothing wrong with easeing him into the line-up, just like there is no problem with easing bruce into the major leagues. Personally I want to bring up a rookie for his debut with as little pressure on him as possible. bringing him up tomorrow to play CF, leadoff, make his ML debut, and save our season?!? thats pretty dangerous IMO, lets get him here when we're 100% sure he's ready, right now I'm only 75-80%.

I wrote for everyone to calm down about votto & that he would be the starter soon, well here you go he started against a lefty (surprise move) and hit well, thats a huge step. take some pressure off him early on and it turned out fine.

The reds will be fine, its a looong season.

 
at 11:19 PM Blogger redsfanwoody said...

I live in Cincinnati and I respect John Fay's work. Anyone else want to make a stand for John? Or is or should we let a "drive by blogger" tell us differently?

If you come on here to egg on a fight with someone who runs the blog,it might be high time you take a long look at your choices in life. Something is seriously amiss.

 
at 11:54 PM Blogger Hugh D. Pohl said...

Good job John! You don't deserve the negative crap from some on this blog. It IS incredible how some can turn a good win into more of the same old negativity. Some good signs today: Volquez, Votto, veterans (Dunn, Griff). EE will be fine-check the record over last year's games instead of the first few from this year.

 
at 11:57 PM Blogger NVreds said...

actually the historical game is the 1981 series, game 6 when the dodgers win it. martin was gone by then. baker also had an infield single, had some wheels back then! very cool, glad I accidentally stumbled on it, reminds me about how fun this game is. sometimes we forget that when our favorite team isnt playing well.

 
at 1:13 AM Blogger Reds Fan in Atl said...

Keep up the good work John and thanks for the stats. There is nothing I hate more than people taking shots at a player with no stats behind them.

Good win Reds, lets keep it going!

 
at 1:35 AM Blogger Mark T said...

Here's what my senses tell me - stats may say I am wrong. I sense that Dunn and Griffey don't generally hit with runners in scoring position, though it is nice on those 1 out of 4 situations that they do. We need RISP men. Glaring weakness. Pitchers bear down on them and usually put them away.

 
at 4:51 AM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

Something I noticed reading the posts from the other day:

at 11:05 AM Cheviot Sports Authority said...
Anyone know what Hamilton did last nite?
St CSA


at 11:09 AM JackBlueAsh said...
Josh Hamilton had 4 hits in 7 at bats last night..drove in 2 runs and is batting .311...


Notice, the first post entered at 11:05, then, at 11:09 the answer comes.

With comment moderation on, this question would not have even appeared by 11:09. So how is it possible?

Only one possible explination.

John, sorry if this post is walking a fine line with the rules.

Integrity is a good thing on this blog, and multiple identities underminds that.

Im sure more than just one person is guilty of this, but when there is evidence as there is in this instance I think it should be pointed out.

 
at 6:09 AM Blogger REddlegg in Colorado said...

I agree with the other post's, lets not get offended by anyone telling you their opinion,but Just-in-cincy took it a little far with the personal attack(s).

The cheap novel was what it was,bottomline.I didn't even read the post.It was to long.

Richie rich, thank you for your critque.I can know sleep better knowing your infinite baseball knowledge has been bestowed upon me.I feel like I learned a great deal about baseball in a few wise words.

By the way Bako's double play- foul tip- catch the runner was pretty tough looking.His triple looked good to.

there is a such thing as a Good win,a lucky win, & a ugly win,Same goes on the opposite side of the spectrum.

A GOOD WIN is when the team does what it's supposed to do to win.I feel like the reds did that today.(Except EE's defense)

See ya guys later, NEW name for the blog 'Days of our red's blog as the world turns in Cincy,heading over to( Good samariatan) General hospital"!!!

Maybe even get P&G to advertise,they love soap operas.They invented them.

 
at 6:15 AM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

You dont hang out in Frontgate..its for private functions..if ya ever went to ballgames you would know this

redsfan woody.. if you come on a blog and lecture bloggers on their conduct.. you might want to heed your own advice and reflect upon your choices in life

If anyone of us had the opportunity to choose players and build a team from scratch...Dunn, Patterson, Griffey, Hatteburg, EE, Valintine, Bako, Ross would not even be considerations .. maybe backups at best..and this is why this team still has issues

John Fay is a Good guy and respected in the community.Yet, if he is gonna moderate a blog with avid sports fans he should be prepared and accept fire and brimstone

 
at 6:18 AM Blogger JackBlueAsh said...

He is not a clutch hitter no matter how you try and make him look. There are many other things that Dunn is not good at that will never show up on a stat sheet.

Last I checked, runs driven in "in the clutch" and runs driven in in other situations all count the same in the final score. Has anyone driven in more runs than Dunn on this team in the past 5 years? No? Then be quiet.



Last I checked the Reds have had losing seasons for 7 years in a row

 
at 7:32 AM Blogger Bogey said...

I'm sorry to say but I believe I have seen this tired act before. Beat up on a teams weak pitcher and pad the stats. Only to revert to not being able to hit or at least hit in key situations.

This, in my mind, is why stats are very suspect. This is the second game this year where everybody had really big numbers. Really inflates the stats. But the stat geeks are happy.

Hope I'm wrong and they can continue hitting well. But I suspect it is wear out the #5 guy and roll over for #1 through #4.

 
at 7:33 AM Blogger Red Faced said...

I agree, you guys giving John a hard time are crazy. I swear, sometimes I don't know why John even messes with us and this blog. If you don't appreciate the blog or the work necessary for John to keep it running then please do us all a favor and go somewhere else. Like China.

 
at 8:35 AM Blogger Joe said...

John Fay: Thanks for putting up with the few jerks (Just In being one) that visit this site. T

I appreciate your work and love the give and take on this blog. We probably would not have it without you.

 
at 9:42 AM Blogger robdicken said...

John, you really need to control the people that post here. You've got serious problems when you have people questioning your journalism and telling you that you suck on your own blog.

Someone earlier asked what a "good" win was. Well, anytime that we score more than the normal 3-4 runs in a game that we've been scoring, it makes the win even better. Wouldn't that be considered "good?"

Richie, there's no point in arguing or trying to speak intellectually with CSA. I seriously think the guy has some sort of mental handicap that makes it impossible for him retain knowledge. Short term memory loss? Quite the possibility.

The Lazy fan comment was funny.It's one thing to Get Paid to follow stats,but it's another to seriously follow them as a fan.I just simply do not have the time to look up stats,that's why I read the paper or watch the news.But I do watch the games & see what I seeing day in & day out.Stats only tell 1/2 the story.

You don't have the time to look at the back of a baseball card? I would really hate to live your life then. How do you find time to eat or sleep?

What a stupid comment. If you don't follow statistics, then what really gives you the right to say a player isn't any good? Because you go to a game or you "just don't like him?" I don't like some people I work with, but it doesn't mean they suck at their job.

Also, here's the thing about Griffey...

Click here for lifetime RISP stats

Griffey gets a hit about 1 out of every 3 times there is a runner in scoring position, per his career stats. I'll take it. Not absolutely wonderful, but it's also not terrible like a lot of naysayers are complaining about.

Dunn's RISP is absolutely atrocious though, I will say that. But, his average is never great either, and RISP will a lot of times reflect a player's career averages. As long as Dunn hits 40 homers and drives in 100 RBIs per season, I could care less how he does it. A run is a run is a run.

 
at 10:03 AM Blogger redsfanwoody said...

I could care less what you think Jack. You are one of the main problems on here. I guess that your choice in life.

 
at 10:05 AM Blogger robdicken said...

Jack, quit assuming that everyone thinks the same as you. Quit trying to speak for everyone here, because the vast majority DON'T agree with you, your conduct, or your Griffey and Dunn ramblings.

For the 50th time...quit posting the same crap over and over again. I want to read posts here that actually talk about the game just played. Not an obsession of hate with Dunn and Griffey and an intimate obsession with Jeff Keppinger.

John puts up with a lot here...and you are part of the problem. Along with your buddy CSA.

Constantly attacking posters and making un-needed ironic comments are what brings down this blog and the readers around it.

If you want to do that crap, make your own blog. Otherwise, keep it out of here.

THE MAJORITY of the people don't want to constantly read negativity or the complete hogwash that spews from your mouth.

I'm really surprised you're still allowed to be around. John Fay must be a very forgiving person, or he just doesn't read your repetitive postings.

Shape up or go away.

 
at 10:58 AM Blogger reaganspad said...

And remember the guys who said that we could not win without Bedard? That went on a while.

Well, Bedard is on the DL, would have cost us a 351 hitting Votto, and Bailey or even Cueto.

Anyone want to make that trade now that we have seen Cueto?
Nope. And who need Cantu. We have Votto, and he can hit lefties.

We have not had a legit 100 RBI 1st
baseman since doggy. That is a huge plus.

Those Bedard fans though they will tell you we can't win. And Ross will help this team huge. Did anyone notice who caught Fogg the other night? Javy is not a catcher that anyone is comfortable with, he is a pinch hitter.

Welcome back David Ross. We now have 2 catchers....

 
at 11:41 AM Blogger Zach in MO said...

John,
I am very grateful that you run this blog & that we have the opportunity to read it. I thank you for all the work you do. Some of us who live outside to the area depend on it to get constant Reds updates.

As for this blog - I've been living in SW MO for 10 years now. Everyone is a Cardinals or Royals fan. One thing I've grown very fond of living in this area is the way everyone supports their team. People are realistic, of course, but they also realize that sports is supposed to be a FUN experience.

 
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