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John Fay
John Fay has been the Reds beat writer for the Enquirer since 2001. Prior to that, he served in a variety of roles for the Enquirer: backup Reds writer, UC beat writer, backup Bengals writer and as a general assignment reporter. He is a Cincinnati native and a graduate of Elder High School and the University of Dayton.

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Monday, April 21, 2008

Tonight's lineup

Ryan Freel CF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Adam Dunn LF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Joey Votto 1B
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Paul Bako C
Matt Belisle P

vs. Dodgers RHP Brad Penny


17 Comments:

at 3:33 PM Blogger Hugh D. Pohl said...

Dunn lovers and Dunn bashers alike might want to check out this little study I did on his clutch hitting abilities or lack thereof. There is evidence on both sides of the ledger as to whether he is effective in the clutch, but the results are surprising and unambiguous. I am including the whole post since the link did not work for some.

 
at 3:34 PM Blogger Hugh D. Pohl said...

I have been intrigued by all the incessant bashing of Adam Dunn so I decided to do a little research of my own to see what evidence exists for some of the "facts" about him that are so casually tossed out by his detractors.

First let me tell you where I stand. I like Dunn as a player. His explosive power is a joy to behold when hits one into the stratosphere. I also respect his ability to get on base, which is good no matter how people try to dismiss it.

That said, he is a two-diminsional player. His has what Bill James calls "old player" skills, power and OBP without speed and defense.

Anyway, to the point of this particular post. I did a little analysis of his stats using the Bill James concept of clutch situations. Here is what I found:

Dunn gets 14% less hits overall and 62% less doubles
He strikes out 21% more often in clutch situations
"Ah, ha!" you say. I knew it all along-hie s is terrible in clutch! Not so fast.

He homers 21% more often in the clutch (at a rate of 46 HRs per 550 AB vs. 38 non-clutch)
He drives in runs at an incredible 90% higher rate in clutch situations (on pace of 165 RBI per 550 AB)
He walks 56% more often in clutch situations.
Grounds into 56% less double plays in the clutch (only 4 GDIP per 550 AB)
My conslusion? In clutch situations Dunn turns into Uber-Dunn, kind of a cariacture of himself where, if his clutch production was projected into a full major league season would look like this:

BA .214 OBP .505 2B-12 HR-46 RBI-165 BB-159 SO-201 GIDP-4

Would you accept a .214 Batting average with a .505 OBP, 46 HRs and 165 RBI? Yeah, those strikeouts would be so aggravating...if he would just put the ball in play more often, hit to the oppsite field and stop clogging up the bases!

 
at 3:35 PM Blogger Jason said...

I'm not crazy about ever seeing Freel in the starting line up, much less leading off.
How long do the Reds wait before they bring Bruce up?

 
at 3:49 PM Blogger Columbus Reds Fan said...

I like this lineup. It's what I suggested last week except I had Phillips and Keppinger switched. I think I like this version better though, it gets your speed at the top of the order. A lot of people keep asking for Hopper to be the lead-off hitter but I would rather have Freel. Teams will start to take away Hopper's bunt hits and without those his average will not be as good as Freel. I also think Freel is a better base stealer, has more doubles power and he can play infield. Send Hopper down and call up Andy Phillips for some right handed pinch hitting power. Hopper can come back up if Freel gets hurt.

 
at 4:03 PM Blogger KevinFtMyers said...

Although tonight doesnt look good (Belisle vs Penny) I think this next week is an opportunity to get back close to .500. If they can split w/ LA then win both the HOU / SF series we may be able to consider this team "alive" again.

At any rate, they had better right this ship because after the cellar dwellers its STL, CHC, ATL, and the Mets, and if they continue like they are, that little stretch could bury them.

 
at 4:06 PM Blogger bsu1 said...

At least Patterson is out of the lineup but will Norris Hopper get a legitimate shot at starting?

 
at 4:16 PM Blogger Maltybuck said...

What is Baker's objection to putting Keppinger in the leadoff spot? Edwin and Kepp have been hitting well, why not move them up higher and get them more at-bats? A few swaps to the righties in the lineup:

-Kepp to leadoff
-Encarnacion to 5th
-Freel to 7th

Jeff Keppinger SS
Brandon Phillips 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Ryan Freel CF
Paul Bako C
Matt Belisle P

Actually, if we're going to tinker, we may as well keep the lefty-righty thing going. Dunn has hit second in the past with some good results, and Kepp should be leading off b/c of his high OBP. I'd like to try this lineup for awhile to see who starts to gel:

Jeff Keppinger SS
Adam Dunn LF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Whoever's playing CF
Whover's catching C
Pitcher P

 
at 4:21 PM Blogger ShinyKefka said...

I feel so sorry for Norris Hopper not being given the opportunity to play CF for the Reds this year.

 
at 4:33 PM Blogger Greg said...

NO PATTERSON LEADING OFF???? i think... we'll see... someone has finally realized that patterson cannot lead off!

 
at 4:38 PM OpenID miami87 said...

Only Keppinger and Votto behind Dunn?! Don't they realize that Adam needs protection! ;{|

 
at 4:38 PM Blogger Redsfansince72 said...

i like Dustys lineup change.. moving Phillips to the #2 hole is VERY smart! Also Keppy after Dunn helps protect him as well and then followed by Votto and Edwin.. this is a better lineup to use

 
at 4:41 PM Blogger jranly said...

I think it's about time to get looking at some of the other options to leadoff. Patterson started off hot, but has been sub-par ever since. whether it is Freel or Hopper, both of them deserve a shot at being the true leadoff hitter we need.

 
at 4:55 PM Blogger Steve said...

Dunn at cleanup? He should be batting 8h. I'd rather have Bako hitting 4th. The sooner we get rid of Dunn, the better. I don't care if he hits an HR tonight or not...he's a DH!

 
at 5:05 PM Blogger Cheviot Sports Authority said...

Sign Barry Bonds. He is one of Baker's Boys. I would love to see an outfield of Dunn, Griffey and Bonds. That would be hilarious.
ST CSA

 
at 5:35 PM Blogger Joe said...

I sure like Bako as a backup catcher. Regardless of not having a proven bat he has been enjoyable to watch so far at and behind the plate. I'm wondering how long 36 year old knees and back can hold up under the amount of playing time he's been getting. It would be nice if Ross would start hitting in AAA and Valentin could be relegated to a PH or other role.

 
at 5:44 PM Blogger Red Faced said...

I like the look of this line-up a lot. I could also see flip-flopping Phillips and Keppinger's spots in the line-up or subbing Hopper for Freel but I think this line-up is on the right track.

Glad to see some changes taking place.

Our pitching, overall, has been very excellent and the bats need to get into the action more.

 
at 7:13 PM Blogger JerBear said...

Norris Hopper is getting the serious shaft...

But besides that I kind of like this lineup. I'd maybe put Keppinger batting third though. I mean it's pretty obvious he's your best hitter. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he doesn't have the weaknesses of our power hitters also.

Man I thought maybe the Reds could get on a mini-roll and now we have to face Brad Penny! I think he has pretty much dominated the Reds in his career.

Well who knows...maybe they'll surprise and put some runs on Penny tonight.

 
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