Reds Insider: Add a vet or go with the young guys?

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Add a vet or go with the young guys?

Now that it's pretty apparent that Erik Bedard isn't going to become a Red any time soon, the Reds are looking at young, unproven pitchers for three of the five rotation sports.

Do you think they'd be well-served to add a second-tier free agent? Livan Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, Bartolo Colon, Jason Jennings, Freddie Garcia, Kris Benson, Matt Clement and Jon Lieber are still out there. Other than Hernandez, there are health questions about them all.

Or do you think the Reds should just go with the young guys? Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez would be in rotation if the season started today. But Johnny Cueto and Matt Maloney are close to big league ready as well, so they could replace Bailey or Volquez if they falter.

And I hope you all had a happy holiday.

There's been some debate about anonymous posting. I'll continue to allow it, although I wish people would register or leave a name at the bottom so people could respond to them. Everyone on the site, except for me, is anonymous anyway if they choose to be. I don't think there's a guy out there named Bob Redlegs.

It wouldn't hurt for everyone to be a little nicer and little more tolerant. In other words, rip the post not the poster.

121 Comments:

at 12:38 PM

Anonymous said...

At this point I'm ready to say let's just see what the young guys can do for the team. No reason in overspending for a starter. Let's be prepared to go into spring training with the pitching we have and if someone comes available for a good price (see Arroyo trade a couple of years ago) then I say we take it but otherwise let's let the the young guys get some playing time.

We can work the trade deadline for a pitcher if things don't work out during the season with the young arms we have. I see Griffey becoming a trade option at that time since he'll be past the 600 HR mark by then and he is likely in the last year of his contract with the Reds.

at 1:03 PM

Anonymous said...

I think we should sign a veteran to a one-year deal just to increase the competition in spring training. Out of those names, the only one that I thought might be worth a flier (for the right price) is Jon Lieber. He'd come pretty cheap and I see him as more of a groundball pitcher which he needs to be at GABP. I looked up his history at GABP and he's thrown 14 innings there without giving up a run. Not a large sample size, but better than the career 5.71 ERA that Milton has there.

at 1:03 PM

Anonymous said...

I think the Reds have to go sign a veteran or even two. You don't spend 40+ million on a closer then pray you can get to him. 3 of the 5 starters are basically rookies? The Reds will be out of contention before they start to develop.

at 1:25 PM

Anonymous said...

I'm thinking the Reds should mold their young arms into a pitching rotation similar to what the Braves did a number of years ago with Glavine, Smoltz, Avery and others. Let these guys pan out, don't panic and they'll be Reds for at least the next 5 years. We might be looking at something we really have never had...great starting pitching that we developed.

at 1:58 PM

Anonymous said...

I think it would be good to have a veteran left hander in the rotation. If nothing else just to balance things out a bit. Livingston did ok last season until he got injured, but I doubt he'll be ready to come back anytime next season.

at 2:09 PM

Anonymous said...

I think the Reds would be better served adding a veteran pitcher to help bolster the existing rotation and help mentor the younger arms. I like Hernandez because he has a very important component that virtually no one else on the roster has . . . he has won a world series. We could really benefit from his experience (intangible as it is).

at 2:11 PM

Dave from Louisville said...

I bet Krivsky is looking for low risk/high reward pick-ups/trades to increase the competition in spring training. He has a history of this with Lohse/Saarloos. Look at what Billy Beane pulled off the waivers last year in Lenny Dinardo, a lefty with a ERA under 4in the AL who had the highest ground ball ratio in the league. The steals are out there it's just a matter of finding them.

I bet Krivsky would have been all over LD, but lacked the roster space with 2 Rule 5 draft picks and guys stuck bullpen revolving door.

John,
What do you think Krivsky will do?

at 2:19 PM

Anonymous said...

As long as that veteran is not Steve Trachsel, whose average game time is calculated with a calendar...

at 2:22 PM

John Fay said...

My guess is they go with the young guys. The only one of the guys I mentioned who you could count on for 200 innings is Hernandez. And he'll get a lot of money. A trade remains a possibilty.

at 2:53 PM

Anonymous said...

John, new to posting, thanks for the excellect coverage. Do you know if the Reds have any interest in Lee from the Indians. I would doubt that the Indians would sell low, especially to the Reds after the Phillips thing. However I would think Lee could have a long term impact.

at 2:54 PM

Anonymous said...

start the season with bailey volquez and belisle. when one falters either johnny or matt should be excelling in louisville. save the payroll for a mid season trade.

on a side note i feel as if i read a story on volquez changing his name twice. has anyone else read this or was i reading about someone else?

at 3:10 PM

Steve Bittenbender said...

At some point, you got to find out what you have in the young guys. Bailey and Volquez should be in the rotation come April. And, barring injury, I think you need to give both Bailey and Volquez a full season. Atlanta did that with Smoltz, Glavine and Avery in 1990. Worked well for them. And Detroit did it just a few years ago with their cadre if young hurlers.

Factoring in Arroyo and Harang, that leaves one spot open. Do you put Belisle or Shearn in that spot until Cueto's ready? I wouldn't mind seeing Shearn get another look, unless you could get Livan Hernandez. The rest of John's list are basically this year's versions of Paul Wilson and Eric Milton.

Now, if you have to get one of those pitchers, I'd suggest Kris Benson. Even if he doesn't throw one pitch, his wife could do wonders for clubhouse morale.

at 3:12 PM

Jason Brown said...

I've said before, and I'll say it again. I'd go after Freddie Garcia if he's relatively healthy. His track record is proven and he probably has a lot more in the tank than some of the other veteran free agents out there. Either that, or a trade for a number 3 starter like a Joe Blanton.

--Jason in Charlotte

at 3:14 PM

Anonymous said...

I could go either way, me and buddy were leaning toward a trade for a dependable veteran, but the team already tried that with Milton. If i had to choose, i would take a lower tier veteran. why?, because you dont have high expectations for him anyway. If Livan came in we would expect great things, if we bring in Traschel were not expecting great things anyway so a good season would be a bonus. Give the young guys a respectful veteran to look up to, Harang does not qualify yet.

at 3:25 PM

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds take a one year flyer on Colon. If he gets healthy and returns to near form he'd be a welcomed additions and valuable veteran influence on the young starters almost guarranteed to see the rotation for the Reds in 08.
Michael Jenkins

at 3:27 PM

Anonymous said...

I am also ok with seeing what the young guns can do as starters in spring ball first and possibly sign a veteran before the season starts if it appears they aren't ready.

at 3:37 PM

Unknown said...

I'm all for picking up Benson...he'll have a lot to prove.

at 3:50 PM

Anonymous said...

I agree with Jason about Freddy Garcia. I don't understand how his value is so low after one or two bad seasons after stellar ones with Seattle and Chicago. Another one that interests me is Bartolo Colon. He would be a good innings eater in my mind because, unfortunately, I don't want to put too high of expectations on Bailey, Belisle, Volquez, Cueto or Maloney. Lieber would be good because he could do what K. Rogers has done in Detroit the last few years.

at 3:51 PM

Anonymous said...

Chett33,

If Harang doesn't qualify as a pitcher that a young player can look up to and respect, theres something wrong with them. You can't get much of a more respectable player than Aaron Harang.

at 4:02 PM

Anonymous said...

Regardless of what they do from now until Opening Day, this should be the most interesting Reds season in years.

There are so many questions to be answered:
- Can Phillips repeat the 30/30 feat?
- Will Cordero solve the bullpen woes?
- Will Dusty jump start this team or will he wear out the starter's arms?
- Which of the young guys (Bruce, Bailey, Votto, Cueto, Volquez) are ready to make "The Leap"?
- Who is the real Edwin Encarnacion?
- Can Thom top his negativity from last year?

The questions are really endless. I can't wait to see how this season plays out!

at 4:06 PM

Dan H said...

I have to agree with red faced posting. I don't see the scrap heap pitchers making much of a difference and it keeps the younger one from gaining experience. Most of these type of pick ups in the last few years have not panned out.Let's give our young guns (Bailey,Cueto,Maloney,Voloquez) the work to start gaining that experience. If a decent #3 or #4 type comes along via a reasonable trade go for it.

at 4:40 PM

Unknown said...

get Cliff Lee from the Tribe. They could get him for Freel and Volquez (who I'm not sold on). Then you've got a solid #3 guy who's a lefty, to go with Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, whoever. Lee is still young. 27? Maybe. We need a lefty in the rotation. Just like we need a legit leadoff hitter and an impact right handed bat. I don't know where you find either of those two things in this lineup this year.

at 4:40 PM

scooby said...

John,

I still think this was a bad trade!!
there were better options out there than what we got, i don't like bringing in Lieber or Hernandez i think you "dance with the ones that brought you" from this point out because the reds have shown a propensity to make horrible trades and free agent choices when it comes to pitchers, 5 exceptions over the years Jose Rijo, Danny Jackson, Aaron Harang and they absolutely stole Pete Shourek & John Smiley as a free agent.

recently tho Phil Dumatrait was supposed to be a "highly touted prospect" out of Boston just like Volquez he got a cup of coffee last year after a good minor league showing and is no longer with the club, Brandon Clausen out of new york,Dave Williams was supposed to be better for our team than Gorzelanny or Oliver Perez etc who were available with the Pirates(i acknowledge he was an O'brien deal). .... Elizardo Ramirez was a serviceable pitcher who looked like he may do well we got him from the Phillies he is also 24 and we let him go... he was just signed by the Rangers as did Eddie Guardado... why do you or other fans think Volquez will be any better than those who we got before with the Krivdog??

at 5:18 PM

Anonymous said...

Stay with the young guys. I'm confused as to why Shearn isn't getting any pub. I was in Chicago last year to see him pitch and he kept the Cubs off balance all game until the Bullpen blew it. Santana he is not but he has to be better than the stiffs John wrote about. This is at least in the eyes of the scouts the best young arms the Reds have had since the early 70's. At some point we have to see what they can do.
Off topic why is center field Freel's to lose? Hopper is the type of leadoff hitter the Reds need. Plus he stays healthy something Freel can't seem to do.
Marc

at 5:19 PM

Sue Shi said...

I think the retread option is not the way to go, they would be better off seeing if one of the young guys can do it. I'm not sold on Belisle by any means, he has had two years to get a starting spot and hasn't done it so far, what makes anyone think he can now.

Someone mentioned the Braves having Glavine, Smoltz and Avery at one time. If Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, and Volquez can develop together like that or at least three of the four, that would be great. But that is a rarity.

at 6:04 PM

Anonymous said...

We need 2 vets this year. Lieber, Livan, Clement, etc -- 2 of that pile.

The simple fact is that no rotation goes all season with no changes. Since Lieber et al tend to get injured, we will have plenty of chances to see what Bailey can do, and with much less pressure.

If we can sign each for under 3 to 5 million, I would not hesitate to try to get 2 proven starters to go with our young crop.

We will probably need to sign one for a few years and another on a 1 yr offer. Hopefully our needs and their desperation will work out for the Reds....

at 6:28 PM

Anonymous said...

At this point I'm still being cautious not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket. Relying on the young ones is fine if they pan out but I still insist that a veteran like Colon or Benson gives us more insurance than it does limit the youngsters and allows us to not put too much pressure on them all at once to succeed. Harang is an above average veteran who provides great influence but I also believe that you cannot have to much veteran leadership. Its the nice flux of young and old that makes up a championship team.

at 6:50 PM

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't count on Shearn for anything more than a spot start or as a long man. He's like Chris Michalak. He'll fool you, but if you get a good scouting report you can get to him easily.

at 7:42 PM

Al in Ohio said...

Guys, come on, Freddy Garcia probably won't be pitching until June, at least. He shouldn't even be part of the conversation for the Reds.

at 8:18 PM

Anonymous said...

I agree with John Fay. Reds need a veteran who can eat some innings. Going in with 3 unproven young guys is a recipe for falling out of contention early. We need Lieber, Clement, or Fogg. None are spectacular but they should keep us in 4 & 5 run games.

at 8:20 PM

RedVol said...

We must get a veteran innings eater before spring training. Someone like Leiber, Clement, or Fogg should be able to keep us in 4&5 run games.
3 unproven young guys in the rotation is a recipe for falling out of contention by June.

at 8:24 PM

RedVol said...

We definitely need a veteran innings eater by spring training. Someone like Leiber, Fogg, or Clement should keep us in 4 & 5 run games.

3 unproven, young guys in the rotation is a recipe for falling out of contention by June.

at 9:51 PM

Anonymous said...

First, Merry Christmas, John! And Happy New Year to all Reds' fans.

Second, regarding the negativity in recent posts, I think all of us (sportswriters and posters) need to take a deep breath. Sigh. Reds' fans have suffered mightily in recent years. Posters ripping posts and posters is, at the end of the day, simply a reflection of how fed up all of us are with recent vintage gutless/hapless ownership, poor management, lazy players, and horrible execution of the most basic plays many us made on sandlots growing up. Since players don't post, we wind up ripping each other sometimes because we're all sick and tired of: (1) losing; (2) owners and GMs who refuse to directly address/ackowledge our agony; and (3) prima donna millionaire players who lie to our face by denying their steroid, amphetamine and HGH use, and still suck.

As for pitching, it's not about adding youth or veterans. It's about stockpiling pitchers built for your park. In the case of the Great (ok, Mediocre) Middle-American High School Ballpark, that means stockpiling ground ball pitchers. Quick, how many do the Reds' have? Nuf said.

at 10:07 PM

Anonymous said...

To compete you still need a dependable innings eater. We need another Arroyo type trade. Freel for ????

at 10:14 PM

Anonymous said...

I say you keep earning your money and looking for options down the line as we approach spring. One injury and everything changes. I still can see Wayne pull a spring time doozy like he did with Bronson a couple years ago. But youth and competition works. Load us up.

at 10:17 PM

Scotty Ace said...

Livan Hernandez does one thing very well... He eats up innings! Look at his record. It speaks for itself. And that is what the Reds need...I think he would be a decent 3 with Bailey and either Cueto or the newest ex Ranger filling in the last spots.

at 11:41 PM

JDGood said...

I would be sick to my stomach if they signed Fogg. I don't like the idea of Freddie Garcia in GABP either, to much fly ball. If healthy Clement might be the best fit for the stadium.

at 11:56 PM

Gene in WV said...

I believe we are best served to go with what we have.

I look for Belisle to have a pretty solid year. Last year was really his first full one as a starter, had lots to learn. His stuff is good enough, and I believe his experience will be enought to get him over the hump and be a decent third starter.

Tom Shearn, while a rookie, was old in pitching experience, and performed like a veteran when given the chance. I believe he would be as good as a mid=yier veteran, if we need him in that role.

At least two of the four young guys will more than likely have pretty good years, the other two can develop a little more in AAA, then pitch on the callups as they occur throughout the year.

Bobby Livingston could also be a wild card, depending on his injury status.
I think we are OK. However, if something drops in our lap, sure, get a veteran middle of the rotation guy. Otherwise, I think we are in pretty good shape.

at 12:09 AM

tom dunne said...

redvol, so you think that the Reds are one innings-eating pitcher away from contention? I don't see it. If you add Livan Hernandez, which is more likely: the Reds win the World Series -or- the Reds don't make the playoffs?

This season is up in the air based on how well or poorly the kids perform. If Bailey/Cueto/Votto/Bruce come together at once, the team contends. If they don't come along quickly, the team doesn't contend. Putting a guy like Kyle Loshe back in the rotation isn't a difference maker.

at 12:15 AM

Anonymous said...

Let the young guns have their shot! The only way to get experience is to pitch every fourth day. I would like to see Hopper in the lead off slot in center and then Bruce can take Junior's slot in right when he goes down or is traded. Here's my lineup: Hopper (CF); Ramiez (SS); Griffey or Bruce (RF); Dunn (LF); Phillips (2B); Votto (1B); Encarnacion (3B); Ross/Valentin; Pitcher

Traveler

at 12:21 AM

Anonymous said...

at 12:49 AM

Anonymous said...

The Pirates seem to have decent young lefties galore, or was it because I only watched them pitch against the Reds? They probably have lots of need areas to trade for. Anyhow, I doubt they'll be willing to swab with a division rival.

at 12:51 AM

Anonymous said...

There is no need at this point to make a bad decision worse. We didn't do what we needed to win this year, so why throw your money away. None of the available pitchers are servicable. Why spend money on guys who will be on the DL at least twice, will have about a 5.00 ERA, and whose records will have more losses than wins? We can do that with what we have now, so if rebuilding is what we are doing then stick with that. Krivsky and the Reds have shown their hand, and it is to hope and compete in 09' or maybe
10', it sure is not to win now. I hope that I am wrong about everything, but you know I am not. Even the most optimistic fan on here knows that at the end of the year we will have a loosing record. Just like the Bengals, the Reds will have to change their whole philosophy of how they run things and who the hire, but neither one will happen anytime soon.

at 2:26 AM

JerBear said...

Nice to see less anonomyous posters! But the one anon. poster I read did bring up a good point about Tom Shearn.

I can understand why a guy that old probably doesn't get a great chance. They probably think he couldn't have any sustained success in 08, and that him pitching allright was more of a fluke than actually being able to consistenly pitch 6-7 innings in the big leagues.

But, it seems they should give Shearn a chance to make the club. He pitched pretty decently I thought. He looked like he actually knew how to pitch.

at 5:16 AM

Grizzlyfox said...

John-
Do you know what Matt Belisle's been up to this winter? I know his splits last year when comparing pitching out of the stretch and out of the windup were ridiculous. He's obviously got the stuff based on his numbers out of the windup, so do you know if he's been up to anything as it relates to tinkering with pitching out of the stretch?
(His splits-bases empty:.284avg, .323 obp, .748 ops. runners on-.324, .361, .927).

at 8:22 AM

Anonymous said...

I disagree with firefly. The Reds should be better and finish with a winning record. It has been widely discussed that if they had blown half of the saves they did last year, they finish 1 game ahead of the Cubs last year. Despite losing Hamilton, they should have no trouble scoring runs. There will be plenty of save situations even if the young starters give up 4 and 5 runs a game. I actually think the starting pitching should improve with youth. I would take my chances with Bailey, Cueto and Voquez sight unseen over Shearn, Livingston and Milton. I see Belisle having a better year this year. Last year was essentially his rookie year as it was his first time as a full time starter with the Reds. Arroyo should turn his record around with better bullpen. PS. I scratch my head about some of the things Krivsky has done but overall I think he has done a great job. Castellini too, in that he has never hesitated to write the checks when a signing needed to be done.

at 8:43 AM

Anonymous said...

The Reds should try this.
Trade Votto, Bailey and Edinson Volquez for Bedard.
Then trade Bruce, Cuendo, and prospect for Santana.
Unload Dunn and Griffey and use that money to pay for Santana. At the end of the day you end up with
Harang, Bedard, Santana, Arroyo & Belisle. This is better than what we have been doing the last 10 years.

Jeff E

at 8:47 AM

Anonymous said...

I've been clamoring to start the young guys with a future all winter. Wayne finally decided to go that way but only after trading 'for' another young arm rather than trading 'from' the young arms. He explored trading for Bedard ad nauseum, but the price was too high. I'm very glad he recognized that. The commitment has been made. I'm just sorry Hamilton had to be sacrificed to cause the commitment to be written in stone (or cement as Narron used to say). I think Homer and Cueto would have been satifactory 4th & 5th SPs. However Volquez must now be favored to take the 5th spot going into spring training because Wayne put himself on the line. If more than 2 of those 3 falter, Maloney is there as a LH choice and by mid-season Livingston also. It's obvious that there is a method to the madness, they've set up an environment of competition between these young guys. Whoever proves himself to have the best stuff, command, coachability and adaptability will win out. It will be an on going process that may yield a couple pitchers ready for the playoffs next October!

at 9:23 AM

Anonymous said...

go young if you can't trade for a 1 or 2 guy. We can always trade midseason.

at 9:58 AM

Anonymous said...

Guys,

I have been a Reds fan for over 25 years and I have to say that I really like the direction of this team. When was the last time we had so many power arms in our system? I think Votto has the makeup to be a stud. Phillips is a great second baseman. If Edwin keeps improving and can stay healthy we have a third baseman. I don't know if Bruce is a contender or a pretender but I am excited to find out. Griff is a legend and I like having him around. I will take Dunn in left to compliment the lineup all day and night. We have a closer! Our bullpen should be pretty good.

I am glad they did not give up three strong prospects for one pitcher. Hamilton will be missed but we got him for nothing and we may have added a front line starter and left handed relief guy.

We will win. It might not be this year but I feel this organization is on the cusp of being a winner for several years.

at 11:06 AM

Anonymous said...

Where are all the free agents that Dusty said would follow him ? Funny how FA pitchers seem to not want to be part of "Team Dusty".

at 11:59 AM

reaganspad said...

Did you know that in 2 years under Wayne, our team has improved in 2 key areas, just not in the same year. Hopefully, 08 we put both of these together:
"DID YOU KNOW? Reds starting pitchers ranked sixth in the National League in ERA (4.58) in 2006. It was their highest ranking in the NL since 1999, when they finished fourth."
"2007 was the best fielding team since 1977"

at 12:32 PM

Anonymous said...

Firefly,
You may know this, but you complain a lot! You act as if since Josh Hamilton is no longer on the Reds that all hope is lost.
a) Krivsky's probably not done. (I know you dread that)
b) We have 3 or 4 CF's to fill in for Josh's 47 RBI's from last years run producing squad.
c) If bringing in a mid-range FA adds competition and takes the load off the young talent, so be it. It may stabilize the rotation. You never know. That said, I still want Blanton or Bedard for the right price (Freel, Castro, Coffey, and Livingston, haha)
d) I think most people could see that the Bengals were going to be down this year, at least I did. Injuries on the OL, no experience at LB, young secondary, hot-shot attitude all around. It smelled wrong. I'd compare this years Reds more to the 2005 Bengals. Lots of young talent, positive coaching, good core of players, increasing talent and competition...I'm not calling the playoffs, but I think they're in good position. In the end, who's organization would you favor to make excellent choices? Mike Brown's or Bob Castelini's?

Again, their not done yet, the sky's not falling, and their definitely better than last year - on paper.

Anonymous Jon Bachmeyer

at 12:37 PM

Anonymous said...

I SAY GO WITH THE YOUNG GUYS. ARROYO IS A VET SO HE CAN HELP THEM. JUST LET THEM GO OUT THERE AND DO WHAT THEY DO. IF THEY DONT PAN OUT WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER. HOMER WILL BE DOMINATE SOMEDAY. JR IS A BASEBALL GOD AND THE REDS SHOULD BE LUCKY TO EVEN HAVE HIM AT ALL. NOTHING IS WRONG WITH DUNN. IF DUNN CAN'T HIT WITH RUNNERS ON BASES MOVE HIM DOWN IN THE LINEUP AND MOVE SOMEONE UP WHO CAN. I DON'T KNOW A LOT ABOUT BASEBALL BUT I KNOW HE CAN KNOCK THE CRAP OUT OF THE BALL AND HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN DO IT AS MANY TIMES AS HE CAN???? EXACTLY.

NICK
CINCY BORN AND RAISED

at 12:49 PM

Anonymous said...

Considering what the Reds spent on a closer, I hope the starting pitching is good enough to give him games to save. Young guys are questions marks - if they don't get it done, the money spent on Cordero was wasted.

at 1:17 PM

BuckyRed said...

The only problem with a free agent SP is the cost. The Reds would probably have to overpay to get one. Lieber had a foot injury so he would probably be a low risk.
L. Hernandez would be a 2nd choice. He is an inning eater but with tendency of allowing a high number of men on base he might not eat up as many innings. He is also rumored to be attracting attention from the Mets, Phillies and Mariners, 3 teams that have deeper pockets than the Reds have demonstrated in the past.
Stay away from Colon and Fogg. The return on investment isn't there. Benson might be a low cost option but in that case our rookies have the same risk and won't cost as much.
My preference would be to trade for Blanton. If we do trade away some of the future, at least it will go to the AL where it won't come back to haunt us as much. Otherwise, stay with the young guns and let them gain experience.

at 1:21 PM

crobinson said...

Lieber would be a good fit for 1 year. He has the potential if he stays healthy to win 12-15 games. There is no downside to signing Lieber.If it works out great if not its off the books in October. The key to the season is the development of Bailey and Bray. If they are good we can be competitive into September then anything can happen from there.

at 2:30 PM

Anonymous said...

Go young. Everyone else is eventually successful with it. Lieber and Livan are bums.

at 2:37 PM

Don said...

Frankly, none of the free agent pitchers are guys you would really want.

Lieber's ERA was 4.73 last year. He is 37 and coming off surgery- not a recipe for a successful season. The Mets can have him.

In his last two seasons, Bartolo Colon hasn't posted an ERA of under 5.00. Last season his ERA was 6.34. He hasn't pitched 100 innings since 2005.

Livan Hernandez will eat up innings, but he will give up hits too. He is a guy who is on the downhill side of his career. Chances are he continue to spiral downward. He would easily post an ERA of over 5.00 as a Red.

Matt Clement is coming off shoulder surgery and hasn't pitched since June of 2006. Even when he was healthy, he was terrible (6.00+ ERA).

Steve Traschel might be the best option from a really poor group of free agent pitchers, but at 38 his best years are behind him.

Garcia is of no use. He is coming off a a torn labrum and won't be ready until June at the earliest.

Krivksy would be foolish to bring in any of these guys really. The Reds still desperately need to reel in a legitimate proven starter via a trade because 3/5 of the rotation is either unproven or unreliable. The Reds are really rolling the dice by leaving too many unanswered questions in the rotation. However, if it comes down to Cueto or Bailey versus some of the aforementioned has beens, I would take Cueto or Bailey.

at 2:56 PM

Anonymous said...

i like bacon sandwiches.

at 3:11 PM

nathangriffith75 said...

First time poster. I really like the Hamilton trade. John, do you think Keppinger gets a legit shot to take over as the starter at 3rd in spring training? Also, my thoughts are:
-no way they trade Gonzalez this winter
-go with the young pitchers rather than sign a 2nd tier FA
-Stanton, Majewski are gone by June 1

at 3:13 PM

Anonymous said...

bacon sandwiches are good but i prefer turkey with my bacon sandwich. it adds some flavor to the sandwich. also add some mayo with lettuce and tomato and you now have a club sandwich. get some fries and then you have an entire meal.

at 3:32 PM

Anonymous said...

Hey John Bachmeyer! You are right I do complain alot, but am I that far off. Really, when is the last time the Reds or Bengals have went out and got the HOGS? Just throw caution to the wind, spend $$, and get the biggest FA out there. I know big names don't always pan out, and I know that sometimes you have to be reserved, but when you look at the great teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Patriots, Colts, etc) they are always in the front of the pack when pursuing FA or trades. I understand we are not a big market team, and don't have the money like some, but if the philosophy was different we would have more money. Regardlessly of my complaining, I am a big Cincy fan, but I have stopped paying the ticket prices to see a loosing team. Fans will put up with loosing a game, or even a few loosing seasons, but no one wants to pay money for a loosing PHILOSOPHY. I am not sure what the problem is (scouting, general managers, cheap owners, or ego), but we have a problem here that needs changing. In response to this issue, and the REDS situation, I hope your right. On paper we might be better, and we do have people to fill in CF, but we will still overwork our bullpen, and they will blow saves. Hamilton's trade won't be the end of the world, but the philosophy behind it is a domino effect. Working for the future is great, and prospects are good, but when we finally find out which of our prospects are good MLB players (2009 or 2010) where will the rest of our team be. I will tell you, other holes to be filled!!! Griffey aging (sorry Ken), Harang's arm tired, Arroyo elbow sore, Phillips eyeing $$$ in FA. I hate to be a doomsday sounding fan, but this is the reality of todays professional sports. Fact is, you can't tell me that we have 3 or 4 pitchers and 4 - 5 position players in the minors that will all be high end MLB contributors, you sound sports educated enough to know that just doesn't happen. In the end, I want to be wrong, but if you want a good burger now you go to the store and pay for the best looking beef there, not hope that the calf next door will grow up big and strong in a couple of years. Also, I will take Castellini, he seems dedicated and hasn't really had a chance to prove me wrong, whereas Mike Brown....well, enough said.

at 3:51 PM

Anonymous said...

3:13 - I agree with everything you suggest, however, it is asinine to assert that turkey somehow adds "flavor" to a bacon sandwich. Turkey is the Ford Taurus of sandwiches; bacon is the Ferarri F430. I do not understand how turkey could in any way contribute to the flavor of a sandwich already stockpiled with delicious bacon.

at 3:53 PM

Anonymous said...

Don't forget the avocado, and don't forget the arbitration clock(doesn't start once a player makes a big league appearance) Sure it was exciting to have bailey come up, but it was more of a Homer Simpson move... dooh! What we watched him pitch a couple games in a season that didn't matter. Trading five games for a season five years from now doesn't make sense.
So now bailey is trade bait in 2012instead of 2013.

at 9:09 PM

Anonymous said...

For the money, use the young guys. I'd hate to see the waste of $ on a guy like Milton, Stanton, or Cormier. I'd much rather see the young guns take their lumps. I will actually pay to see an exciting young prospect than a tired old retread. I feel better
about the Reds direction than I have in years.

-ajaxonford-

at 10:55 PM

Anonymous said...

firefly: Getting the huge, big bucks free agents isn't smart for a team like the Reds. Really it is debatable whether it is smart for anyone but the Yankees and the Red Sox.

The bigger the contract the harder it is to get rid of and short of Bonds' first contract with the Giants, name one huge contract guy who has lived up to their contract. I can't name one other than A-Rod and really he still might not provide the value that he should for that size contract. Look at last year. It was Zito. Wow. Giants got their money's worth...

Also, I love bacon sandwiches. I bet Mike Stanton does too.

at 12:48 AM

capadgett said...

Hey firefly,
As a Reds fan from Indy, you mentioned the colts always go after big free agents. That is not correct at all. They let players go once they are good because they can't afford them with Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Freeney and now Sanders taking up so much salary space. They develop young players from the draft. Name one big free agent the colts have signed in the last 5 years. None. There aren't any, almost our whole team has been drafted and developed.

at 9:33 AM

Anonymous said...

Fact is W.K. has no plan,he has been a miserable failure.In most MLB cities he would already be fired !!Check the record....Last year we were a joke!! WAKE UP CINCY---FIRE KRIVSKY

at 10:36 AM

Anonymous said...

I agree with the guy up somewhere up there. Trade for a number 3 starter like Blanton. He actually has better career numbers than Bedard and is also a year younger at 27. It would also not be as high of a price as it would be for Bedard. If that doesnt work out than I guess just go with the young guys because I would hate for them to waist money on another Milton or Wilson.

at 4:40 PM

Anonymous said...

Matchups! When was the last time you went into a game, series, or season when you liked how the Reds matched up against the opponent. The heap of free agents presents no matchup problem for any opponent. "Innings eaters" are for teams trying to get through a whole in the rotation. If you have a solid rotation it's ok to fill it with an innings eater in the five hole to get you back to the top with a fresh bullpen The Reds are looking to complete the rotation with guys that are middle to top of the rotation guys. If the young guys are all that they have been cracked up to be then they are top of the rotation guys. Start two of the group in the four and five hole and see how it works. If one of them begins to show that he is top of the rotation material, move him to the three hole and Belisle down a spot. If all works out maybe both are in front of Belisle by years end.

at 4:40 PM

Anonymous said...

Well capadgett, you should do research before you make a statement. Obviously, you do not know your own team. The Colts have as many FA starters as they do draftees, here is just a few because I did not have the time to list them all. Starting on the defense: Ed Johnson DT, Josh Thomas DE, Gary Beckett LB, Raheem Brock DT. A few on the offense: Adam Vinatieri K, Jeff Saturday C, and several more. I believe most people are familiar with these guys, but maybe you are not. As far as the Reds issue, you have proven my point, good teams sign FA to win and be dominate, and it sounds like you would be qualified to be a SCOUT for the Bengals and Reds.....

at 7:51 PM

Anonymous said...

Whaddya say, Lance?

at 11:12 PM

Scott Evans said...

I say they have to sign at least one of the veterans remaining. I was hoping for Prior until I read he wouldn't be physically ready until late in the season. Anything else would be risky leaving it up to the rookies which the track record for that is not good.

Also, I say go ahead and end the annon posts, though there could be a real Mr. Redlegs, The late Mr. Redlegs, buried in Sturgis.

Scott

at 11:13 PM

Ron said...

Does anyone out there think lefty Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants is worth going after? I would offer Ryan Freel and/or Scott Hatteberg for him.
He's not Erik Bedard, but we could add him to our stockpile of young pitching prospects.

at 7:54 AM

Anonymous said...

I say we go with the young guys and that we fans be patient during a youth movement.

If we are in the hunt we can add someone at the trading deadline.

at 8:05 AM

Anonymous said...

All teams need starting pitching..

Nothing wrong with Harang ,Arroyo, Belisle, Bailey snd whomever else ya want to put in there

The real problem with this team was the 7th 8th and 9th inning

maybe the 9th inning has been addressed..maybe not

The other problem with this team was hitting with men on base.

This problem has not been addressed and as long as players like Gonzalez and Griffey remain on the team, this team will stay about where it is.

Sorry if the truth offends anyone

Oh lets not forget..We have no catcher

You can sign Bedard or for that matter Sandy Koufax ...you still have serious issues on this team that have not been addressed

as john requested
Jack in Blue Ash

at 9:25 AM

Mr. Redlegs said...

I'm not dead, I'm not dead, I'm not dead!

Yet.

HIlarious post, Scott.

And Ron, you might offer Freel and Hatteberg for Sanchez, but Brian Sabean isn't a complete idiot. He has a commodity and it two role players ain't gonna cut it.

at 9:48 AM

Anonymous said...

Firefly,

Every one of those Colts players on defense that you named were UNDRAFTED free agents that the Colts signed. I think that hardly makes them big name free agents. What the other guy was saying is that the Colts don't sign free agents like Adalius Thomas or Nate Clements.

at 9:56 AM

Anonymous said...

Firefly,

Sorry Raheem Brock was a huge 7th round pick of the Eagles before he was cut(never playing a game for the Eagles). So from that list you researched and used to say Capadgett doesn't know anything about his own team was wrong. Of the 6 guys you named 1 of them, I repeat 1 of them have played for another team during their careers--that being Vinateiri.

at 10:15 AM

Ron said...

If I were Krivsky, I would sit on what I have now going into Spring Training and bring in some veterans as non-roster invitees. If Benson is healthy, he might be worth a contract. My guess is Tomko may be available and would be amenable to an invitation to spring training. If he panned out, he would provide a wealth of experience for young pitchers having once been considered a phenom himself.

at 10:15 AM

Anonymous said...

Firefly,

Rocky Boiman, Dan Klecko, Anthony McFarland, Keiwan Ratliff, Adam Vinateiri....these are the only guys on the Colts roster who have played regular season games for another team. Find me an NFL team with less guys who have played for other teams in their careers.

at 11:12 AM

Anonymous said...

First off...love reading the boards here as it is hard to find any true Reds fans here in Rochester, NY.

Lots of comments...

Signing of Cordero = A+
He allows the others to slide down a slot while taking the closer from a divsion rival. The guy can pitch and has no fear.

Hamilton for Volquez = C
Tough one for me as some of my friends accused me of having man-love for Josh....well, not THAT way. Just thought he was a steal, feel good story and has a lot of potential. Looking at it financially it was a good move. A $50K investment turned into a live arm and potential starter. OK, good move if Bruce can make it happen up here.

Out of the free agent pitchers listed, I would prefer Livan. Proven guy and knows how to pitch. Also has a bulldog mentality. Gotta love a guy who wants the ball. Postseason experience and may be a nice calming influence on EE, AGon., Volquez and Cordero.

Trades....everyone loves Bedard as do I, but not for the cost of 3 top prospects...Votto, Cueto and Maloney but that would be the limit. I think the perfect match would be the Giants. They seem to need some position players. How about a combination of Freel, Hatteberg, Stubbs, Maloney & Livingston for Lowry? Not saying we trade them all for one guy but a large package of major league position players & some prospects should be enough to pry a solid #3.

I think the Reds can compete now by adding a solid starter....does not need to be Bedard or Santana. Just someone to be a solid #3/4 while the young guys are getting ready.

I also would like to see a Chone Figgins/Reggie Willits type center fielder who can defend the middle between Dunn and Griffey. Getting a Figgins type also solves the leadoff spot. Don't know what we'd have to give up to get him but I think that is the missing offensive piece.

Sorry for the long read and thanks for being here!

at 11:25 AM

Anonymous said...

I understand what WK means when he says AAA numbers don't aways translate to big league numbers. I'll say. This is one reason the Hamilton for Volquez trade was just as bad one for the Reds. I gave him the benefit of the doubt if it was going to be rolled into something larger for an "Actual Proven" starter such as Bedard, or Blanton, particularly Bedard, because the guy is a K machine, young and getting better in a division with the Red Sox, and Yankees and pitches in a somewhat hitters park where Blanton pitches in a pitchers park. Volquez got hammered in a hitters park. I love rebuilding but at some point you need the pitchers to get you to contention. A lot of wirters here use the word "IF" such has "IF" this player matches his AAA numbers. Well, I'm all in agreement to keep your farm system in tact "to an extent". But some of these offers for Bedard and Blanton aren't getting those teams to even nibble on the bait - we are really overvaluing minor league potential for proven major league proven actions. Most likely we will lose Bedard to Seattle or one of their division rivals or Bal will keep Bedard. I suppose I'd like to really have a guy who I know will get us to the playoffs rather than just keep hoping those "IF's" work out. I'm done ranting now.

at 12:03 PM

Anonymous said...

Here's to staying with the young guns if we cannot secure a decent free agent. I know the pickings are slim,but you never know. If they do sign someone here's hoping its just a one year deal.

I believe someone mentioned the Reds have not changed their philosophy in years. But they have. We would not have been in the mix for Bedard if the previous owners were still in charge. Plus they went out and filled the need for a closer. And I believe that Baker would of passed on this job if he sensed the Reds were just spinning their wheels.

Woody

at 12:10 PM

Anonymous said...

Hey can we leave the football chat on the football boards/blogs? And firefly...try to cheer up!

at 1:23 PM

Anonymous said...

I went back to mlb.tv to watch several of Volquez's games. He does have electric stuff. Most games he consistently hit 96 and in some games hit 97, 98 a few times. His command is just a tad low, but when he missed it wasn't by a whole lot. He appears to be sneaky fast because in a few games he was only at 92, 93 at the start but still blew it by people. His changeup has a tailing, sinking action. In the Detroit game Sheffield hit a 1st inning 96 mph fastball into the seats after EV got behind. He gave up no more runs until the 6th when Ordonez hit an 82 mph changeup into the seats after EV walked the first two on 8 straight balls. In one game the announcers mentioned that Roy Halladay had been sent all the way back to A, AA, AAA ball in 2001 much like the Rangers did to EV. It worked for Roy and hopefully it will for EV. He just needs to improve his strike percentage just a bit and he could be dominating. There were a lot of swings and misses. All that said, Cueto may be a better pitcher because I understand that he has phenominal command. I checked Homer's strike percentage too and found it to be better than EV's. It will be very interesting to see the spring battle for the 4th & 5th spots. Whoever doesn't start should be in the pen. As of this moment I see EV in the pen. There are going to be a lot of fireballers on this staff. It looks to me that any 6th inning lead should hold 90% of the time.

at 3:31 PM

Anonymous said...

To the Anon's: You are proving my point, heck, you might even be related to the management of our pro teams. The fact that the guys I named played for anyone else, or were drated late or not at all is not even the point. The point is, the good teams sign players, and the good teams trade for good players. We as ordinary fans may not know them, but the professionals who run the team do. Granted, the Indy guy has a point about developing players, they sure have and props to them, but again it proves my point. Our management doesn't develope and if we do, they get away from us in the end because we won't do what needs to be done. A FA signing is just that, regardless from another team or not, if you sign a FA that is an all-star and helps your team win you are doing your job. Cincy hasn't done that in recent history, and if we do have a guy (Phillips) or develope a guy (maybe Bruce or Votto) we won't keep them past their first contract. Listen guys (and gals), as negative as I sound, I am trying to prove that the way our pro teams do things is sub-standard and cheap. Ask any other pro team management (MLB or NFL) about Cincy and most will give it to you straight, and thats why most players won't come here. To the other Anon post, I will try and keep football on the other side, but the two go hand in hand on this subject and are worth mentioning. And I will cheer up when we become a true competitor, but everyone here has to agree that it is aggrivating to do the same things year after year.

at 3:55 PM

Anonymous said...

Nice. Great post redsfuture! How much was it for those games?

at 6:27 PM

Anonymous said...

Firefly: I totally disagree. Reds & Bengals have nothing in common other than some fans. Different owners, management & philosophies. There is no reason to compare them let's keep this blog on subject, baseball. Currently the Reds are either going in the right direction or not. Overall they are staying the development course. I don't know that they have ever produced a mission statement but they should. My perception is that their plan is to win through draft and development with an occassional FA signing. Until this comming year the D & D plan has only produced a trickle of talent. The key to winning through D & D is to produce a flood of talent. The rest of the league better order some sandbags for flood control because the Reds are about to embark on a 4 to 5 year ride on the crest produced by their talent flood.

at 7:40 PM

Anonymous said...

How can anyone blame Thom B. for getting negative ?? We played the dumbest & laziest in MLB.I'm not a big Brenneman fan yet we were very hard to watch....thanks to the incompetence of Cluless Kriv.
WAKE UP CINCY FIRE KRIVSKY

at 10:57 PM

concepcionsf said...

Great story on reds farmhand Pedro Viola:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265145.html

at 11:05 PM

Anonymous said...

I can't see Bob Castellini allowing the club to head into this coming season with only two clear-cut starters. He is going "all in" this year and has proved it by putting his money on the table with Dusty Baker and Cordero.

There is not enough time to wait and see with only Belisle, Bailey and company. The addition of at least one more reliable starter would seem to be highly probable - otherwise all that money spent could be at risk.

at 11:58 PM

capadgett said...

Firefly aka Dirk from Hillbillyville, looks like you need to do the research before you post, you obviously are clueless. All the guys you mentioned were undrafted free agents with the exception of Vinateri. None of these guys were major FA's, none of them were even good enough then to be drafted. Not one of those guys has even played on another team. So I guess that means the Colts were at the front of the pack with FA's and trades by signing guys who no one else wanted (your so called major free agent signings and trades) So basically you are saying the Reds should sign guys that don't get drafted as the solution to get better. Sorry to the rest, I will only post on the Reds from here on out.

at 1:44 AM

Anonymous said...

ray drake. 15

Guys i think we should get another veteran starter to help our rotation. i would like to get someone like livan, like you guys said he can help us by taking us deep in games. plus i think he could be a solid guy in our rotation to go with harang and bronson. If he didnt cost us tons of money, i think he would be a good pickup. And i was wondering, would it be a bad idea, in spring training to try to put one of our young guys in the bullpen. we did improve the bullpen by gettin cordero. now we have to worry about getting to the 9th inning with the lead. i mean the starters do good, its just the guys that come in after the starters. i think thats where we blew most of our games. so if we added a couple of our young guys in there, to go along with burton and weathers, do you think it would help any?. besides that would give our young guys some more experience, until they can be a consistent starter. also let stanton, Majewski and gonzo go. i really like coutlangus in the bullpen. and why does everyone want freel gone so bad. the reason he gets injured is because of how he plays. freel risks himself to make plays for this team. how many other guys do you know that would do that for this team?. and as far as my lineup goes i would go 1.freel/hopper(cf),2.keppingger(ss),3.griffey(rf),4.phillips(2nd),5.dunn(lf),6.votto(1b),7.EE(3b) and id even give freel some time at 3rd.8.ross/valentine(c).. if ross has another bad year id let him go.. fellas i no im only 15 but i follow the reds really close, so just let me no what you think.
thanks

at 1:48 AM

Anonymous said...

Is a Joe Blanton trade still in play?? He'd be a great fit as a #2 SP and signed cheap for 3 more years. something like Cueto/Stubbs or Maloney/2nd tier prospect seems like a fair deal.Any updates on recent A's trade talks?

at 3:59 AM

Anonymous said...

Looks like business as usual for The Cincinnati Reds. It's always "give us a year or two, then we'll really knock your socks off."

Frankly, after 7 straight losing seasons, it would be nice to see The Reds make a conscious effort to contend. But if Edinson Volquez is the biggest improvement Wayne-o is going to make to the rotation, then he has already punted the 2008 season.

Meet the new Reds. Same as the old Reds.

at 8:41 AM

Anonymous said...

I think Livan is the last guy on that list I would go for because he is a prove commodity. You might as well sign Milton for a minor league contract (probably $4-5 million less money) if you want an ERA of near 5.

I'd prefer someone with a higher upside even if it comes with higher risk. Someone like Colon, Lieber or Clement.

But Cliff Lee is the guy I'd most like. He's the youngest of the guys on the list and could be one of the cheapest at $3 million.

at 10:03 AM

Anonymous said...

I think that the Reds should sign a couple of veterans to one year deals and then let the young guys develop a little more in Triple-A before throwing them in the fire.

The other thing the Reds need to do to help the bullpen is either release or trade Todd Coffey for some more young talent. Since he isn't worth the money that the Reds are paying to pitch if every game or every other game he pitches is adventure on is he or he is not going to give up the "big inning" when he's out there on the mound.

at 12:12 PM

reaganspad said...

You anonymous guys crack me up. "Release Todd Coffee"

The guy was our best reliever in 2006. 78 innings, 3.58 ERA. 8 Saves.
2005, 58 innings 4.5 ERA.

David Weathers had a 6.24 ERA with the Reds the last time we "released" him in 98. At the time, he had 7 years of ERA's from 4.91 to 8+

Since he has had 10 years of 3.5 ERA. Everyone is critical of the old guys like Stanton, Cormier, etc.

Lay off Todd Coffee would you? He will not be closing in 2008, and will have a sub 4 ERA as his role will be clearly defined.

you probably wanted to dump Burton last may too...

geesh

at 12:32 PM

reaganspad said...

If you total the innings of Livingston, Santos, Gosling, Ramirez, Milton and Saarloos... that is 227innings of a 6.0 ERA and a 7-16 record.

Belisle will improve as will Bailey in 08. Improving the number 5 guy seems easy enough to me. Be it a young gun, or a retread, just give us 200 innings under 5 and we are a better team. Catch some lightning with 200 innings of Volquez and we can have some fun in 08.

at 12:33 PM

Anonymous said...

I am with you pessimist Dave, you are absolutely right. I have been trying to get everyone to see that, same story EVERY year. I have tried to discuss with some VERY INTELLIGENT people here, but it just isn't working. I hope our prospects are all hall of famers, I really do, but is that how you build a club. Seriously, we the fans should have a coup, because we buy into the same stuff every year. I love the optimism of you guys, its great to hear, but in reality when has our prospects panned out to win a championship? If we don't do a deal for a top line pitcher and change our approach to offense, its back to us arguing on here next year.

at 12:43 PM

Anonymous said...

Re: Jon Bachmeyer
In the end, who's organization would you favor to make excellent choices? Mike Brown's or Bob Castelini's?

That's a no-brainer right there. I have more faith in the Reds organization than the Usual Gang of Idiots over in the NFL.

at 5:08 PM

Anonymous said...

Firefly,
I don't think you take in account on how bad the Reds and their farm system was before Bob & Co.

It's going to be a year or two away at least. It's not going to change no matter what Bedard could do. there is no quick fix for the Reds.

Unless there is a steady pipeline of talent coming through the minor league system we will be spinning the wheels. But you are seemingly unwilling to let prospects develop up in the majors
.
Most of your post have been to trade prospects for established pitcher here and there. Going that route will drain the farm system quicker than it would be able to recover. Don't believe it? Look at the Yanks and Red Sox going back to developing their own.

I understand you and others being more on the negative side of things,but don't come out saying that anyone who does not agree with you are not intelligent. That shows your disregard for others point of views and lack of intelligence.

Woody

at 7:09 PM

Anonymous said...

The thing is, there isn't going to be some steady pipeline of talent coming out of The Reds farm system. It is very top heavy. The top 3-4 prospects The Reds have are excellent and then the quality drops off dramatically is you get to the lower levels of the minors. Both of Wayne Krivsky's drafts have been busts, so far.

The Reds have an opportunity to win now. Most of you are preaching this "wait two years" stuff, but in two years, there is likely no Griffey, and possibly no Dunn, and Brandon Phillips, being a Scott Boras client, will be getting very expensive.

Not to mention, two years from now - will Bailey, Volquez and Cueto have lived up to there expectations? Will Harang and Arroyo still be as solid as they are right now?

Add in the fact that Joey Votto may never produce and that Jay Bruce has yet to play a single game at the major league level (remember when Austin Kearns was the next Mike Piazza?), and you can see why I'm skeptic of this waiting around stuff.

I'm just not happy to keep chasing this magical season that is ALWAYS 2-3 years away, when the Reds have a chance to win this year.

at 5:49 AM

Anonymous said...

It depends on what the team's goals are for 2008. If they want to do what it takes to contend for a slot in the post season, then they have to have a back up plan in case their best prospects falter. Obviously that fallback cannot be to call up their second tier prospects. Nor can it be to hope they strike gold when signing any of the questionable veterans you have mentioned. No, to seriously pursue a playoff berth this year, they have to seriously pursue a proven starter even if it means giving up a pitching prospect or two, or trade offense for pitching. That's what makes the Hamilton trade so befuddling. They gave up someone who demonstrated last year that he could contribute significantly at the major league level for someone who might be able to. If you are trying to win now, you don't dispense with a proven major league ready, high-ceiling talent like Hamilton for a might be, could be, should be guy.

Patrick Fox
St. Louis, MO

at 11:39 AM

Anonymous said...

To redsfanwoody: I do not mean to put anyone down for their opinion, and the intelligent comment was aimed at a couple individuals on a prosports issue. With that said, and in keeping with the post, I am more of a trade prospects for proven talent guy. Reason being is, the REDS very rarely produce talent. I know that our farm system is "stronger than it has ever been" and it takes time to mold them, but what do we as fans put up with? 2 years, 4 years, or well these guys didn't pan out so lets wait 6 years for the next highly touted group. As far as your Yankees/Red Sox comments on developing talent, come on, that is a loaded answer. There is a little truth to that, but those teams spend money, sign FA, and trade some of their players to keep a serious major league contender every year. If the Reds had that, than I would be on the side of developing prospects, but we need to put proven players in place now. Trade and sign a Bedard, heck (this is dreaming)
also trade and sign Santana, then talk to me about lets develope guys for a few years down the road, that is what the Championship teams do.

at 1:36 PM

Anonymous said...

Firefly,

You make it sound so easy. "Trade for and sign Bedard...trade for and sign Santana. That's what championship teams do. Then talk to me about developing players."

If it is so easy, why are Bedard and Santana still with the O's and Twins?

Why would Bedard sign with the Reds long-term when he and his agent have made it clear that they are going to test free agency in two years?

Based on the deal the A's got for Haren, what do you think our farm system would look like in regards to top prospects if we could close deals for Bedard and Santana?

You said you were dreaming, but please...

at 1:44 PM

Ol' Timey Redsfan said...

I would like to see the Reds take a chance on Colon. I know he has had some heath problems, but when healthy he is a dominate pitcher. I would make it an incentive base contract. One that the Reds are famous for, come play with us for a year, prove yourself and then sign for big bucks next year. By that time the younger pitchers surely will be ready (if they're not ready this year). The Reds need a proven solid number 2, IMO then they could push Arroyo to number 3 in the rotation. The kids could than fight over the remain 2 spots with Belise in the mix as well.

at 2:00 PM

Mr. Redlegs said...

Firefly, the only things wrong with your arguments are they are incomprehensibly illogical.

at 5:09 PM

Anonymous said...

Signing Santana isn't realistic, but firefly basically said that himself.

However, there is no reason the Reds couldn't sign Bedard if they traded for him. He's only said he won't resign with Baltimore. If he came to Cincy and experienced winning, he might very well sign for 3 or 4 years. You don't know if you don't try.

And as far as signing a veteran guy and waiting a year for the young guys to be ready NEXT season, don't be so sure. Bailey was next to awful this season, he has serious command issues. And even when top pitching prospects do deliver, they hardly ever do it in their first season or two in the big leagues. Justin Verlander is only one in recent memory. Guys like Jake Peavey, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Johan Santana, and even Randy Johnson all struggled multiple years before becoming the pitchers they are today.

And on top of that, how many top pitching prospects actually live up to their expectations? The MLB is littered with guys who were billed as the next big thing and completely flopped. Todd Van Poppel, CJ Nitkowski, Edwin Jackson, Mario Ramos, Jesse Foppert, Brett Tomko, Brandon Duckworth, Ty Howington, and this is just to list a few. Top pitching prospects flame out every year. The chances of them living up to their expectations is not good.

And what's even more disturbing... when is the last time the REDS produced a decent pitcher? Tom Browning?

I'm not exactly sold that The Reds, in only two years of new ownership, have turned around what is, for the last two decades, a veritable GRAVEYARD for pitching prospects.

If they are giving up on Bedard or someone like him, this says to me one thing. Wayne Krivsky is indecisive and/or is half-assing this "win now" thing. You don't sign a 46 million dollar closer if you're rebuilding. But you also don't count on three pitching prospects who haven't done ANYTHING noteworthy at the major league level to be contributors, if you want to win now.

So what are The Reds doing? Sometimes, I don't think they even know themselves. And that's sad and frustrating. I'm sick of incompetence and losing.

at 7:58 PM

Anonymous said...

Pessimist Dave & Firefly,
I would like to know if they drive you nuts and feel the Reds are incompetent why do you guys still follow them? I mean no harm on the question, I would just like to know why you still do.

I agree its been real test to stay a fan since the mid-90's but I just feel that we may be turning the corner.

I say the Reds have to look at the A's,Twins, and others and follow their lead. As a fan I think i know what it will take. What proceeded Bob & Co. was ugly. And I wish they would of been truthful and said it'll take a few years to get it going.

The thing about signing free agents is it's a crap shot like the draft. Look at Baltimore and the money they spent on their bullpen. Or how the Giants spent the last few years spending on free agents to get a ring for Bonds. And if you don't trust Wayne & His Amigos now, how are you feel about their free agents signings?

But I would really like to know why you still follow the Reds.
Woody

at 8:48 PM

Anonymous said...

Granted...many prospects, even top rated players, do not pan out at the major league level.

But many do.

What we are seeing now with the Reds is the largest number of highly regarded youngsters that I can recall.

Votto looked very good in his time in the bigs last season, and Bailey and Volquez both were able to hold their own in their brief stints.

I'm very pleased that ownership was willing to pay the freight to bring in Cordero. But I don't believe that we now should trade the brighest prospects we've had in years to rent a guy like Bedard (who I really do like) in order to increase our chance to "win now".

I'd rather we take the field with what we've got, and let the young guys take their shots.

Many times, young guys with promise deliver when provided the opportunity to do so.

Just look at what happened in Milwaukee last year with Braun and Gallardo...two guys who were rated as the type of top prospects that we now have in our own system.

at 3:07 AM

Anonymous said...

To redsfanwoody-

I love The Reds. I will be a fan of them my entire life, until the day I die. They were born into me. It's what I am, I'm a Reds fan.

They're like a family member. Even if you hate the decisions they have made, you still love the person. Or in this case, The Reds.

But I think I've definitely the right to be a skeptic because, even in my 20 short years, I've been subjected to many many bad teams and the last 7 seasons in particular are something I'd love to forget. That's why I'm so adamant about shaking off the "give us 2 years" mentality that has plagued the Reds for years. I'm so sick of losing. But my love for The Reds will never die.

at 7:46 AM

Anonymous said...

If Adam Dunn doesnt want to sign a extention,get him out on the Trade Market Immediately,his value is now on the market,Bruce can easily step in to that spot and we can get good pitching for Dunn and keep future arms,also,I do agree the "wild card" in this could be Bobby Livingston,he could come back and cover the #5 spot and Bailey isnt a rookie anymore,and talked to him at redsfest,and hes pumped up,I'll take a Homer Bailey over any FA out there easily at #3,Matt Berlisle is #4,arent you looking for a inning eater there,check out Matts stats vs any FA's out there and this being his 1st year as a starter,and Codero Closes the door,this years Josh (comeback player) will be Bruce,if givin a legit chance to win the CF job,Ryan Freel is anyplace guy,and Hopper is a decent guy to start if Dunn is traded for pitching,everything else is in place,EE at 3rd,Gonzo at SS,Phillips at 2nd,Votto/Hattleburg at 1st,I know everyone is down on Ross,but his throw them out ratio and hitting for power is better than whats out there and he works with pitchers good,Bray,Burton,Stormy Weathers,and even Stanton come on towards the end of the season...I know,I know,I dont giv any reconition to the rule 5 guy and Volquez,my opinion on they dont get it done and are Midd relief hide them on roster guys,welcome to the Reds Dusty Baker,its just a average team,but in this division,average could win it.

at 11:31 AM

Anonymous said...

P-Dave,
Thanks. Now I know where you are coming from and that will hellp see your side of the argument.

I had the 72 Reds as my introduction to Reds baseball when i was five . I also went through the early 80's which is probably is close to what it has been for you. I've seen both sides of the coin per say and I believe it's is on the right track right now.

You have every right to be a skeptic. But also don't let it cloud things so much than when improvements are made that you won't see them.

The Reds are not perfect just like any family member, but they are not the complete idiots people make them out to be.
Woody

at 3:32 PM

Rob Dicken said...

I'm sorry...but I need to lash out at some people here.

I am so sick and tired of seeing people say that Adam Dunn can easily be replaced by Jay Bruce. Again, Jay Bruce is a PROSPECT at this point and has not played one single major league game yet. If you think a rookie can come in and replace a guy that hits 40 homers per season, drives in over 100 runs per season, draws over 100 walks per season, and plays almost every single day...then YOU are thinking highly illogically. At this point, losing Adam Dunn would take away a huge chunk of our offense and would be ignorant for us to do.

Oh, and I highly doubt that the CF job is for Jay Bruce to lose. He has mid to low level fielding range. If he were competing for the CF slot over Freel, Hopper, and Dickerson...all three would be awarded the position over him simply because of defense and speed. Look for Jay Bruce to replace Griffey.

at 4:04 PM

Anonymous said...

Well, I don't think The Reds are complete idiots. It's just hard for me to see any direction with them when the decisions I see them make are contradicting each other.

However, if Wayne signs someone like Livan Hernandez, then maybe he is a complete idiot. But that is a different rant for a different blog, I suppose. Haha.

at 5:58 AM

Anonymous said...

at 12:39 PM

Rob Dicken said...

Rob,you must be the Clown I hire at my daughters birthday partys,you didnt even read the blog right,it makes no since whatsoever to keep Adam Dunn "IF" hes NOT gonna sign a extention,the 1st word in that blog was "IF",I know Clowns dont make much on salary,so let me break it down for you as simple as a Clown can read,EVERY PLAYER WAS A PROSPECT AT ONE TIME,did you catch that Rob,why wait to hear Adam Dunn hits the FA market and we didnt get anything in return,thats the "logic",why do you think Santana and Belard are being shopped,think,now even a Clown(caveman)can do that!

Okay...so I'm the "Clown," but you're the one that just wrote a diatribe into a giant run-on sentence..? No offense, but post your name if you're going to degrade a person on here. To me, and most people here, you're hiding behind a mask by posting anonymous rants and insults. And try not to be the epitome of irony.

I agree to shop Adam Dunn around if it means we are going to land a top -tier pitcher. But face the facts, the time has gone and past over-and-over again to trade Adam Dunn because of his worth to other teams..NOTHING has come of it! To me, it seems pointless to attempt to trade the guy every year if you can't get anything worthy from the trade! As of right now, he is too valuable to the offense of this team to trade him for anything less than a top-tier pitcher.

Yes, everyone was a prospect at one time. But prospects are SEASONED (usually) before being put into a full-time roll. You're still thinking illogically by saying that Jay Bruce could replace Adam Dunn's production as a rookie. There's absolutely no way that would happen in his first year in the major leagues...I will give you some examples below:

Jay Bruce has a 135/47 K/BB ratio. Adam Dunn has 165/101 K/BB ratio. Dunn strikes out more, but draws about 61% as much walks as strikeouts. Jay Bruce is not even close to that, as you can see. That alone (not to mention the 4 consecutive seasons of 40+ homers) proves why Bruce cannot simply "replace" Adam Dunn. It would take years to season Bruce into putting up such numbers, if he's even capable of doing that all!

No one's a clown here...we're talking facts, buddy! Sounds like you need to get yours straight!

at 4:47 PM

reaganspad said...

Hey Anon Rob Basher...
Dunn goes nowhere until this summer at the earliest because of the contract he signed for this year.

So shopping him will be July ish at the earliest and no reason to bash Rob.

He and Griffey could both potentially be traded then with their approval of the team for Griffey as a 10/5, and possibly for Dunn also

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Thursday, December 27, 2007

Add a vet or go with the young guys?

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