Dusty on Votto, Dunn and aggressiveness
Dusty Baker wants his hitters to hit. He likes aggressive hitters. He was talking about Joey Votto and finished with this:
“I really, really hate the called third strike. I hate that. You're guess and you ain't ready to hit.”
Does the aggressive stuff go for Adam Dunn, too? “Like I said, I don't like called third strikes. Dunn’s not a kid. He's not old, but he ain't a kid. I bet you he gets better. He's from Texas, right? There’s not a cow in Texas if he don’t get better.”
“He wants to get better. Barry Bonds he always told me Dunn would be one of the best around. Comes to hitting, Barry’s got a pretty good idea.”
On Votto: “He needs to swing some more. I talked to him about that. Strikeouts aren't the only criteria. I'd like to see him more aggressive.”
“A lot of this on-base percentage is taking away the aggressiveness of some young kids. Most of the time you’ve got to put handcuffs on a young to keep him from swinging.”
52 Comments:
Baker is an idiot. OBP relates directly to runs scored. Period.
This is at least the 2nd time this spring Dusty has diminished the importance of on base percentage. Earlier he said middle of the lineup guys should score runs and knock in runs, instead of worrying about OBP. He has been around the game a long time (just ask him), so I'll assume he knows that you need to get on base in order to score. So I guessing Corey Patterson will be the centerfielder. I'm sure Dusty loves the way he aggressively goes after the 1st strike he sees, no matter the situation.
He's no idiot. My take is that Dusty is worried that OBP-conscious players go up with the idea that they should be looking for a walk rather than swinging. The result is called third strikes. He hates called third strikes - he wants aggressive hitters. What's wrong with that?
I have never seen anyone take more called strike threes than Adam Dunn. If Baker can get him to cut way down on that, then Dunn will drive in more runs. That would be a major accomplishment.
OBP is very important for your 'table setter' guys, not so much for your power and rbi guys. I am sure that Baker is well aware of this. At least I would certainly hope so.
If Bruce has a good spring and does not start on this team, then Krivsky and/or Baker should be run out of town. NOW!
good post Cheviot..dead on
Cheviot...I'll bet you a shiny nickel that Dunn has way more swinging K's than looking K's. There is a big-time difference between strikeouts you've 'seen', and what has happened over time. I'm betting that Dunn plain misses the ball a whole ton more on the 3rd stroke than he looks at.
In fact, I am going to research that now and see what we can see...
PS - Baker is reeeeeally inching close to being a manager who is out of touch on how to win ballgames.
perhaps Dusty is trying to motivate these players to actually make contact..this has been a big problem and I agree with cheviot..see you guys later off to work
ryan its a little bit too early to be assigning failure to Dusty Baker..dont you think?
Julie RN
Dusty had better get a good heart check-up because if he hates called third strikes, Dunn will give him a heart attack.
For all of the statistics nuts, it was Ted Williams who said:
"if it's close enough to be called a strike, it's close enough to hit."
Please research that for us Ryan. We really give a flying fart. Of course he swings and misses more third strikes than he takes. But he takes way more called third strikes than he should.
I thinks funny/sad as a fan to see Dusty talk about OBP in a negative way, then talk about Barry Bonds (the king of OBP) in the same sentence. OBP is the most important stat in baseball people. Its not a joke. If every batter acted like a leadoff hitter and got on base as much as they could you would have a tremendous baseball team. Look at every high scoring offence in history and I bet you they were near the leaders in walks and OBP. OBP is important to every guy in a line up because OBP is not making an out. If your team and its players have a higher OBP they don't make as many outs, leading to more opportunites. It is that simple.
Preach it, Dusty--preach it!
what drives me nuts is when dunn doesnt lift the bat off his shoulder with a runner on 3rd
I love that Dusty cites Barry Bonds as the expert on hitting, then bashes OBP (#6 all-time) and walks (#1).
As for the "OBP doesn't matter for sluggers" argument, I give you the all-time leaders in that category:
1. Ted Williams
2. Babe Ruth
3. John McGraw
4. Billy Hamilton
5. Lou Gehrig
6. Barry Bonds
Four sluggers and two dead-ball-era guys.
Dusty Baker is one of the worst managers in baseball. I cringed when the Reds signed him. Get ready for ample double switches with no-bat defensive players that destroy the lineup. The guy has no clue to baseball strategy.
You can be someone who relies on statistics and STILL see that Adam Dunn takes too many pitches. Very nifty article on Dunn's tendencies at the plate:
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/06/adam-dunns-plate-discipline.html
Wow that is a great article I also hope they start to use this stat and make it automated. Hatteberg should be teaching everyone how to hit the right pitches.
Hard to knock in runners with a walk. I get that.
Barry Bonds is also king of obp because of intentional walks. Show em you can hit em, and maybe they don't want nothing to do with you
Great hitters, who hit for power and average are going be pitched around and therefore walk a lot to go along with all of their hits. This translates to OBP. Very obvious, but thank you for pointing that out. Too many stat freaks not enough real baseball intelligence.
OBP is not just walks...
With Dunn's big build he should be able to take those borderline outside pitches over the left field fence or in the alley a good part of the time. The moment he shows that during the season give the guy a 4-5 year contract. That way when Griffey leaves the Reds still have that veteran power guy on the team.
Adrian
Obviously you don't want guys taking 3rd strikes, but what you really need are hitters who are smart, not just aggressive. He could have said this without taking a swipe at OBP, but that is sometimes what old school guys like he & Joe Morgan like to do.
For those who don't understand the importance of OBP, the exact opposite of OBP is out percentage. Making an out 68% of the time vs. 61% of the time is a huge difference over the course of the season at each spot in the lineup.
Of course, the other benefit of patience is that you run up the starter's pitch count and should get to the bullpen sooner. Given the state of relief pitching, this is generally a good thing.
Ross ought to make Dusty happy. Nearly all his Ks are swings and misses, as well as his strike ones and strike twos.
Its probably a good thing for hitters in ST to be swinging, the players are here to get their swings down not take walks. I would advise it for maybe guys like hopper who you like to see increase them, other than that I want my players swinging away.
Baker hasn't even managed 1 game yet! already we want to run him out of town?? come on people seriously how the hell do you know how baker will do this season
Dusty has only talked about OBP in terms of middle of the lineup guys. Even Baseball Prospectus, who is the biggest supporter of OBP, believes that you want your middle of the lineup guys to be more focused on a high Slugging Perct. than a high OBP. Most sluggers have both because they get pitched around so much, but that is result of them having a high SLG.
Dusty is not saying that you don't want your sluggers having a high OBP, just that you don't want them to have a high OBP at the expense of a high SLG>
There's another huge incentive to keep bruce @ AAA everyone! If we wait a few months before we bring him up, we can add a year of guaranteed service time for this club. For a player of his caliber I think it would be a huge mistake business-wise for a small market team to make. We'll see i guess, but the way this club is going to win is by being smarter than everyone else, and this is one of those things.
look, I want to see the kid play too, but I can wait if it keeps him here longer.
I completely agree with Baker on this, even though he and I are in the minority with thsi opinion: OBP and walks are OVERRATED. I do not want my middle of the order hitters looking for a walk, I want them swinging the damn bat! Walks are for leadoff guys and even then it can be overrated. That guy Rose was a pretty good leadoff guy and he never walked 100 times a season...I'll take 50 walks and 200 hits over 150 hits and 100 walks any day.
Reds 6, Yankees 0 after 2
The Reds scored -- in the first. Norris Hopper led off with a hit. Jeff Keppinger singled with the hit-and-run on. Ken Griffey Jr. walked. Adam Dunn went the opposite way to single Hopper in. Edwin Encarnacion got two more in with a single to left. Scott Hatteberg popped out. Joey Votto walked to reload the bases. Javy Valentin smoked one to right that Abreu ran down. Dunn scored to make it 4-0. Andy Green doubled in another run. Hopper singled Votto in.
yeah Votto and Jr. walking was just awful, totally killed any chance the Reds had of scoring. They should have been more aggressive
God help us. This is simple math. The higher the lineup OBP (middle of the order as well), the less outs, the more times around the lineup, and more runs scored. Period. You don't argue math.
What's equally important is that hitters who don't swing at garbage are swinging at pitches that they can actually do something with. Chasing bad pitches leads to outs.
Griffey and Votto's walks in the above scenario led to extending the inning, moving runners over, and scoring.
Don't be a fool.
I'm pretty sure Dusty didn't mean players should swing at bad pitches. Should a guy look at a BP-lane fastball just because the count is 3-1, or 3-0? I'd rather a player swing at strikes.
walks are a good thing, unless its like 2 outs w/ RISP
i do agree however that OBP is an overrated stat a little overhyped IMO. Walks on the other hand are good things, ups the pithers pitchcount and puts moer pressure on him.
Guys, my last post was sarcastic...
How is a walk with 2 outs and RISP a bad thing? There's a guy up next, right? Rather than swing at a pitcher's pitch, take the walk and let the next guy do the damage.
The more men on, the more likely the pitcher is to throw strikes that you can demolish.
Walks aren't overrated, they're underrated. A hitter needs to work the count into his favor by being selective, that's how you get into a hitters count and can guess what's coming and smash it. That's why most of the great hitters now and in the past have had high OBP.
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but, hasn't Dunn always had a very good OBP?
Dunn's OBP has been good when his batting average has been good enough to supplement his number of walks. Hitting .230 and walking 100 times doesn't necessarily make for a good OBP. However, there have been times when he hit .230 and made less outs than a .300 hitter per plate appearance due to his walks. That's more important.
Bill James counts aggressiveness as a valuable attribute in a player. I don't know how he measures it, but I have to believe there's something to what Dusty says since every at bat is essentially a matchup between two players with opposite goals for the outcome. It just stands to reason that aggressiveness is an attribute you want on your side. I don't think Dusty is putting down the value of OBP but rather commenting on the influence OBP consciousness has on a player's aggressiveness.
I'm going to guarentee you that Dusty has never once read a Bill James article and when they talk about agressiveness they are talking about different things
"I'm going to guarentee you that Dusty has never once read a Bill James article and when they talk about agressiveness they are talking about different things"
I second that.
I'm all for Dunn cutting down on third strikes if it translates to him getting hits or walks but not if it simply translate to another form of an out.
Dunn had a very encouraging 2nd half where he cut down on the Ks, hit the ball the other way some, and looked much more mature as a hitter. An informed manager would just say "Keep doing what you did in the 2nd half last year." Period. I expect a huge year from Dunn leading into his free agent year. Age 28 is around the age where players start to peak. The Reds should really try to sign him now before he increases his value. His defense will never be great, but his offense has yet to reach it's potential.
The main difference in the 2nd half last year appeared to be shortening up his swing and just trying to make contact when he had 2 strikes on him.
You'll never get the algebra and slide rule guys at Redleg Nation to agree with Dusty Baker on Dunn. I tried to make the case over there, but was told I was a moron or something to that effect and abandoned the site. It's a moneyball echo chamber, and if you like that sort of stuff, I recommend it.
But the fact is, Baker is 100% correct, and I hope and pray that he gets through to Dunn. He takes WAY too many strikes, particularly with runners on base.
It should be nearly impossible to have over 40 HR's 4 years in a row and never top 106 in RBI's.
If Baker gets through to Dunn, and I'm betting he will, Dunn's numbers this year will be off the charts. I love the guy and I hope he's a career Red, but he can be so much more.
By the way, this may be the first time I've agree with Cheviot about anything.
Brad:
And I'll guarantee you that Bill James never stepped into a big-league batters box.
Baker's baseball credentials are impeccable. 20 years as a player, over 240 HR's, over 1000 RBI's, 3 WS appearances with a ring, 2 all-star games. Hell, he even led the NL in OBP in 1972 for Pete's sake.
His record as a manager has been discussed and criticized here in depth, but what you can't take from him is his winning percentage.
Let's also not forget he was a very good hitting coach for the Giants before he became a manager. And his book, You Can Teach Hitting, is the first and best instructional book I ever read.
I'm fairly certain he knows quite a bit more about hitting than those calling him an idiot.
Whew, just in time Dusty! Votto did horribly last September with that "approach". A .321/.360/.548 line and 17 RBI in 84 at-bats is pretty bad for a rookie straight up from AAA, right? Oh wait, that's actually producing at a higher rate than Mr. Baker EVER managed in his own major league career. We simply cannot have that. And that followed a similarly horrible year at AAA -- more of the same high batting average, good power and great walk rates. No, the Reds simply cannot allow that to continue. Dusty to the rescue.
After he's through messing up Joey Votto I guess he can get to work on Jay Bruce. While he's busy shredding Homer Bailey's arm into mincemeat the way he did Pryor, Wood and Zambrano in Chicago.
Why are the Reds such an eternally stupid organization? Can anyone tell me why the need for self-destructive tendencies when you're already saddled by a smaller market?
OBP is just as important in the run-scoring models for middle-order guys as it is for table-setters people. Baseball Prospectus has shown that pretty conclusively.
God, get this Dusty idiot away from the Reds' youngsters - like yesterday. Please.
Granted, small sample size on Votto's September, but strictly speaking he outperformed Baker's best season (1972, 887 OPS - compared to Votto's 908 OPS after callup).
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Dusty-Baker.shtml
Perhaps Baker should be listening to Votto tell him how to hit, rather than the other way around.
And while we're at it, the former catcher would probably be a better shepherd for the pitching staff than the man whose mindless old-school, "I walked three miles in the snow to school" overuse wiped out a generation of promising young Cub hurlers.
Quote
"But the fact is, Baker is 100% correct, and I hope and pray that he gets through to Dunn. He takes WAY too many strikes, particularly with runners on base.
It should be nearly impossible to have over 40 HR's 4 years in a row and never top 106 in RBI's.
"
LOL... you stupid asshole. He only drives in 106 runs with 40 homers and a ton of doubles because the garbage hitters these Reds managers keep batting ahead of Dunn have LOW ON BASE FUCKING PERCENTAGES. Get it through you thick-traditional skulls. Say it with me: On Base Percent is the single most important catagory for a hitter to excel in. Period.
Stupid old school idiots. No wonder the Reds suck with fans and managers/GMs that are idiots.
Dunn's at his best batting 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.
Why don't we just score games by guys who get to first base and not by those who cross the plate?
That should solve it!
Sparky:
LOL. When Votto gets 20 years in the bigs, get back to me.
To the dude who called me a f****** idiot:
Manny Ramirez has hit over 40 HR's 5 times in his career. Here are his RBI & BB totals for those years:
145, 76
165, 96
125, 81
130, 82
144, 80
"Why don't we just score games by guys who get to first base and not by those who cross the plate?
That should solve it!"
You have to get to first base in order to score.
Hooray, using a crappy stat like RBIs to refute the importance of a rock-solid stat like OBP.
Herein Chicago were glad you got Dusty-Frisco ran him out of town, chcago ran him out of town and not its Cinciys tuirn. Three for three.No wonder no one offered him a job after chicago after the OBP comment.They allm knew except Mr. Castellini-Maybe now he knows!
Well knew here in Chicago,were glad youve got Dusty.Frisco ran him out of town, Chicago ran him out of town and now its Cincys turn.Dusty will be 3 for 3.No wonder he never got hired after Chicago.They all knew and now Mr Castelli will learn also, bit its too late eat that contract after one year, if your smart!
I heard Dusty manages by his senses.GoodLuck you find he has no sense.
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